Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017  (Read 19919 times)
Diouf
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« on: May 04, 2017, 08:44:29 AM »
« edited: May 04, 2017, 09:04:59 AM by Diouf »

Lived in Prague for a few months in 2015, so have different bits to add to David's great opening posts.

CSSD has been in a more less constant war with Babis during the term together, making constant allegations against him for corruption, getting EU-funds for himself etc. It is really hard to judge how serious the new allegations are. If there is no real smoking gun, then it seems likely that most ANO-voters would simply brush of these allegations as well.

ANO looks likely to be by far the biggest party, but interesting who Babis will prefer as coalition partners and who will want to back him. CSSD will very likely not back a Babis-led coalition, and TOP09 is probably ruled out as well. ODS could be a fairly likely partner, but if their goal is a return as the dominant centre-right party, then legitimizing ANO and Babis might not be the best choice. Perhaps the Christian Democrats, who have allied with the succesful localist party STAN, could be enough, but I actually think cooperation with the Communists or Okamura is not as unlikely as one would think for an ALDE-party with a European Commissioner in their ranks.

There were regional and senate elections last year. They were certainly a loss for CSSD, who lost 10 of the 12 senate seats they were defending and only received 15% in both elections. However, they weren't really a giant victory for ANO. Despite getting 14 candidates through to the second round of the senate elections, they only won 3 seats. Instead, all sorts of local and independent candidates won several seats. And despite topping the polls in 9 of 13 regions, ANO only won 21% nationwide and only ended up with 5 regional governors. Perhaps this just reflected the new ANO party's poor local organization in some places, and that turnout was 33% compared to 60% at the latest general election, but it does suggest the possibility of the general election not being a simple home-run.

Václav Klaus Jr. is running for ODS in Prague.

The Sobotka government has like most of the new CEE governments been critical of the ideas to distribute asylum seekers, but unlike Hungary and Slovakia, they did not vote against it in the European council. Probably a part of Sobotka's plan to court close relations with Germany. Leaked emails by a Russian group even showed that some key advisers around Sobotka tried to tone the migration scepticism further down, but he wisely refrained from that in a country, where the opposition to taking refugees is massive.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2017, 08:48:01 AM »

What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.

They have a quite good chance of playing an important role after the elections. Both Babis and Sobotka have stated an willigness to cooperate with them after the election, which also shows how sick and tired they are of each other.

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http://www.czech.cz/en/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/Communists-being-courted-in-political-battle-ahead
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Diouf
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2017, 03:07:12 PM »

afaik zeman has rejected sobotka's plea to sack Babis cause of the corruption allegations...

is there a bigger power move in play?

Well, Zeman and Sobotka are arch enemies. Zeman tried to orchestrate a coup against Sobotka in CSSD after the 2013 elections, so Michal Hašek could be CSSD leader and PM instead. On the other hand, Zeman has a quite good relationship with Babis, and it's not impossible that Babis could support Zeman's reelection bid in 2018.

It seems quite clear that Zeman will not accept a solution detrimental to Babis and ANO. And if Babis is to accept stepping down as Finance Minister, Sobotka needs to step down as PM as well. Babis suggested he could accept foreign minister Zaoralek as temporary PM with a Babis acolyte as Finance Minister. For Babis it is probably crucial that the Finance Ministry in one way or another stays on his hands, since they would otherwise be best placed to carry out a thorough investigation of his dealings.

It seems like there has also been the leaking of a tape, that suggests that Babis is somewhat involved in the news coverage of a paper owned by Babis' Agrofert. Seems a bit more concrete than all the financial stuff, so perhaps this could actually do some damage to Babis.

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http://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/pm-bohuslav-sobotka-seeks-more-time-to-solve-government-crisis
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Diouf
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2017, 05:58:09 AM »

Forging a coalition with the Communists may seriously hurt ANO's chances of filling the electoral void on the Czech right and replacing the ODS as main party of the Czech right for a longer period of time, though, and ANO have been highly wary of doing anything that can hurt them -- potential members are screened thoroughly and there is a strategy behind everything Babis says in public. I am not sufficiently well-versed in Czech politics to assess whether a coalition (or, perhaps less controversial, outside support deal) between ANO and the Communists is likely and trust you 100% if you say this may be a serious option, but I also think ANO will take into account the above considerations if they have any other options after the election. ANO may already have a majority with the Christian Democrats and either Okamura's SPD or ODS (though, as you said, this will be far from easy too). Things seem to get complicated in any case.

There is certainly a quite hard vetting process for candidates and members in ANO, but I'm less sure how prepared and thought through all of Babis' statements are, which is partly why it is hard to predict exactly what he and ANO will do. Babis to me seems more like someone who speaks his mind at the moment, despite it maybe contrasting with things he said previously. Perhaps another reason why Zeman likes him better than the more subdued, technocratic Sobotka. Also it can be hard to gauge how much the significant, strong pro-EU politicians actually affect the party. E.g. ANO EU Commissioner Jourova convinced Babis to back the EU gender quota directive, which was quite surprising. This is hardly a crucially important matter, especially since the directive still hasn't passed in the Council, but it is interesting how much Babis will listen to the likes of Jourova and Telicka. They would certainly prefer a coalition with the more mainstream pro-EU parties, and yes preferably as a standard centre-right party (which one of them could then take over after Babis). However, the question is how much Babis considers these tactical, long-term considerations himself. Whether he intends for his company to continue supporting the party after he's gone, or whether he only looks at how he could become PM, and expects the party to collapse without him anyway.

A support deal with the communists, more likely than coalition, will certainly not be without complications. It is mainly that most of the other mainstream parties have attacked Babis quite relentlessly, so it would be an embarrassing climbdown if they were to help make him PM. The Christian Democrats are his best shot, but even Belobradek and him have taken their battles in public. And if they are not enough for a majority, I really do think that Communists or Okamura could be his second best possibility. Those two parties arguably don't even differ much in rhetoric and policy goals; the horseshoe political spectre etc. Okamura might be more palatable to Babis and his voters as a fellow business man, but on the other hand, he is quite a loose cannon, so the old and calm Communist party would probably be a much more stable partner. Babis has not been afraid to make policy compromises, excessively so according to TOP09 and ODS, who (not wrongly) states that the current government has mostly carried through CSSD policy. So I don't think he will be hesitate to make significant policy concessions to get one of them on board. And his career does suggest that he is not afraid of working with current or previous communists to get what he wants, although of course the exact nature of his KGB and StB connections is another point of frequent political and legal discussion between Babis and his opponents.
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Diouf
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2017, 06:07:05 AM »

It seems like the Zeman-Sobotka meeting yesterday was quite something. Zeman's analysis in the second quote is of course quite accurate, but claiming that only Sobotka, and not Babis, should leave the government is quite sublime trolling.



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http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/may/04/czech-president-accepts-pms-unoffered-resignation/

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http://www.praguemonitor.com/2017/05/05/zeman-sobotka-should-leave-government
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Diouf
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2017, 06:09:28 AM »

Just to back up the potential Babis + Communists/Okamura deal, Czech political analyst Jiri Pehe states in this article about Babis "Yet he has little interest in foreign policy. "The greatest danger is if Babis becomes prime minister and then leaves the foreign ministry to a coalition partner from the nationalist right or the communists," states Pehe. "Babis is not interested in foreign policy, and he doesn't understand it." As stated previously, I think support is more likely than coalition, but cooperation is considered a clear possibility. Perhaps those, like Pehe, who are largely opposed to Babis, are a bit more interested to talk up the chances of this happening though. As another prove of what a terrible, ruthless fellow, they believe he is.

Babis' relation to the other main stream parties can be summed up by a February quote where he, in response to what he claims is a cover-up of previous corruption, stated that "The Czech Palermo has won again. These are the parties behind the corruption, the CSSD, the ODS and the master of corruption, mr Kalousek (TOP09 leader)". Fiala, ODS leader, responded that Babis was the "consigliere" of Czech politics, and the person with the most dirty dealings in the Czech Republic during the last 25 years. Again, notable that the Christian Democrats were omitted by Babis, suggesting that they are an acceptable coalition partner. His view of Kalousek is one many in the country share, umprompted I have heard several people state that "he has a pot of hidden corruption money for himself somewhere". He is certainly the main culprit if TOP 09 fails to get above the threshold. Interesting that the Pirates are getting fairly close to the threshold, perhaps some of the disappointed highly educated urban types from TOP 09 are turning pirate.

http://www.dw.com/en/czech-government-shakeup-raises-questions-on-foreign-policy/a-38704727
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Diouf
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2017, 05:52:44 AM »

It seems like the current government crisis is mainly crystallizing support for and against Babis; there is little evidence that ANO is losing support over this.

According to a Median poll, 25% believe Babis is to blame for the current government crisis while 27% put the blame on Sobotka. 41% blame them equally. Looking at the preferred path of action now, 37% believe Babis should be dismissed from the government without delay, while 18% believe he should not be dismissed no matter what. 37% support the path laid out by Zeman, which is to go to the Constitutional Court to determine whether Zeman is obliged to follow the constitution and obey Sobotka's wishes regarding the Babis sacking, or whether Sobotka's breach of the government pact in dismissing ministers from other parties without their consent means that Zeman does not have to follow Sobotka's wish.

Babis is playing the role of the responsible statesman, and argues that he can't see a reason to break the government pact of "one of the most successful governments since the Velvet Revolution". He is now proposing that his acolyte, deputy Finance Minister Alena Schillerova, takes over; something which CSSD so far rejects. Sobotka might prefer not to break the government pact directly, as this would likely lead to snap elections and probably no real possibility to make a credible investigation of Babis' financial dealings. However, it is hard to see what else could happen unless Sobotka makes a humiliating backtrack.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/05/15/zeman-ready-appoint-schillerov%C3%A1-finance-minister
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Diouf
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2017, 11:29:38 AM »

Communists push for no-confidence vote, but right wing opposition wants to keep government afloat

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A no-confidence motion of course matters little if Babis and Sobotka finds a solution to the government crisis, but so far Sobotka has not accepted Babis' proposed alternatives as Finance Minister. This means that if the government crisis is not solved, Sobotka could conceivably sack all ANO-ministers and continue with a Social Democrat-Christian Democrat minority government without getting a vote of no-confidence. ANO + Communists + Dawn only has 87 out of 200 seats in parliament currently. Zeman would try to delay such a step, but in the end I believe the Constitutional Court will tell him to accept the dismissals. A bit surprising that TOP 09 and ODS would not support a no-confidence motion in a government they have criticized so heavily during its term. This obviously confirms Babis' narrative that all the establishment parties are out to get him. I wonder whether TOP 09 and ODS, in such a scenario, would not be better served by taking the government down, and hope they can gain a bit by dismissing CSSD and ANO as irresponsible parties. They must hope that such a minority government could find enough dirt on Babis in a few months to severely damage him. However, I think it needs to be really strong evidence if Babis would not be able to simply reject this as another establishment collusion against him.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/05/17/pm-govt-would-survive-no-confidence-vote-if-taken
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Diouf
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2017, 03:00:18 PM »

Agreement on new Finance Minister - coalition crisis called off



PM Sobotka accepted Babis' third bid as his possible replacement in the Finance Ministry, the leader of the Deputy Chamber's Economic Committee Ivan Pilny.  He was the head of Microsoft’s Czech operations in the 1990s, and has enjoyed a couple of succesful stints in other technology companies. Therefore he was part of a TV show where succesfull entrepreneurs give advice and potentially money to new start-ups, one of many national spin-offs of the Japanese Dragons' Den program. Later Dawn leader Tomio Okamura was another of the experts.

Pilny is less of an obvious acolyte, and as another former businessman, he might think more independently. However, I would still be suprised if one of the highest-ranking ANO members in parliament will now go hard after Babis, but I guess we will se about this. TOP 09 Kalousek is clearly disappointed, and states that Sobotka has unneccesarily lost to Zeman and Babis. ODS leader Fiala states that while it's positive for Babis to leave the government, Pilny will change little.

I have quite a hard time understanding much of what Sobotka has done in this whole process. Broad translation of political analyst Vilem Besser: "Babiš can laugh. Sobotka finally gave up the fight for the Finance Ministy and backed off. Gone is the Bohuslav Sobotka of the past days, a powerful prime minister who makes it clear that he is the boss.  Returned has the scared Prime Minister, who does not want to argue with anyone and, especially in battles with Andrey Babiš, retreats to his corner and lets his Deputy Prime Minister do what he wants. This time, Sobotka can not complain about anyone else because he gave up the fight. Many were amazed by the vigorous PM, who resisted attacks from ANO. Also he played a balanced match with President Zeman, and even seemed to have gotten into the lead. Until Wednesday's press conference, that is. Here he accepted Ivan Pilný, and apologized for this cowardly act by saying Pilny was a rebel in ANO with no ties to Agrofert and Babis. However, precisely Pilny's status as a rebel raises questions. Why is Pilny the only MP in ANO who can afford to criticize leaders in the movement without costing him his political career? It is certainly not because he is independent of Babiš".

http://www.politico.eu/article/czech-pm-accepts-new-finance-minister-to-end-government-split/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

http://forum24.cz/babis-se-smeje-sobotka-definitivne-vzdal-boj-o-ministerstvo-financi-a-couva/
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Diouf
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2017, 09:41:09 AM »

Babis courts Christian Democrats, rules out Communists and attacks three old parties, especially Kalousek and TOP09. So it seems that if he can't get a majority with the Christian Democrats alone, he will look straight toward Okamura.

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http://praguemonitor.com/2017/06/02/babi%C5%A1-ano-not-form-govt-top-09-communists
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Diouf
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2017, 11:15:50 AM »

If Babis allies with Okamura, would not ALDE kick ANO out?!

Very small chance of that, I would think. I think ALDE considers ANO quite a "good catch" considering their likely role as the biggest party in the Czechia. Fico, Orban etc. are easily tolerated in their respective parties. Verhofstadt recently tried to court Grillo into joining ALDE, so it seems unlikely that anyone would be thrown out simply for cooperating with someone like Okamura.

And really what kind of radical measures could Okamura push a Babis government into doing? If his new party lasts longer than his previous, so he even manages to get some influence. In Western European countries, there is much more potential for actual, radical change on non-western immigration. In a country like Czechia even a Muslim ban would hardly make much difference. The most significant change, he could push is perhaps something on direct democracy and more FPTP-like elections of mayors. But that probably requires constitutional change if it is not just to be incredibly low turnout circus referenda.
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Diouf
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2017, 11:49:27 AM »

Sobotka quits as CSSD leader, stays as PM until election

After a poor handling of the self-started government crisis and poor opinion polls, with one recent survey having CSSD down in 4th place, the leader of the Social Democrats Bohuslav Sobotka has resigned. Foreign minister Lubomir Zaoralek will lead the party's election campaign while Interior Minister Milan Chovanec will take over duties running the party. Sobotka says he will stay as PM until the election.
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Diouf
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2017, 09:33:16 AM »

ODS says ANO's presence in future gov't unacceptable

Not really surprising that ODS reject playing with Babis. They have often been on the receiving end of his attacks as one of the "three corrupt" parties at the heart of CZ politics. So as expected, ANO's coalition possibilities seem limited to Christian Democrats and the parties on each far wing. The mix of the two will not be easy. And while ANO has been rising to above 30% in recent polls, being clearly the biggest party, polls continue to show Okamura sometimes below the 5% threshold and Christian Democrats/STAN below the 10% threshold for alliances.

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http://praguemonitor.com/2017/06/23/ods-says-anos-presence-future-govt-unacceptable
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Diouf
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2017, 11:47:20 AM »

Personally, I'm rooting for a ČSSD-TOP 09-KDU-ČSL-SPD coalition. ANO needs some reformism and to stop picking so many fights with the President before I would prefer them.

The first three you mention could probably agree to a coalition with each other, but the problem is of course that they would be far from a majority. I don't understand the inclusion of SPD; I don't think any of the parties would prefer to work with Okamura. It would be a last attempt to prevent Babis from becoming PM, but I can't see such a strange cooperation happen. Also, the four of them would not even have a majority according to most polls.

I don't really understand your last line, especially because Babis has a quite good relationship with President Zeman compared to many other leading politicians.
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Diouf
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« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2017, 06:34:30 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2017, 06:37:30 AM by Diouf »

There is some apprehension in the Christian Democrats around the alliance with STAN, since many polls show them just below the 10% threshold for alliances. A few regional party leaders and senators have stated that they should instead just let some STAN candidates run on their list (which I'm not sure STAN would accept). However, both KDU-CSL leader Pavel Belobradek and STAN leader Petr Gazdik stand firm and refer to the electoral advantage of being a larger party, both in terms of its influence and because the electoral system slightly favours bigger parties. They try to cast themselves as the sensible, localist, non-extremist party. They even explicitly warn against the dangers of a ANO-Communist pact. This does not seem like a bad pitch to make, so I have some confidence that they will make it, but we can only wait and see.

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http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/07/kdu-%C4%8Dsl-stan-confirm-their-coalition-despite-unfavourable-polls
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Diouf
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2017, 01:39:20 PM »

The circus of Czech politics continue. Earlier this week, a majority in the Christian Democrat leadership decided, against the wishes of leader Pavel Belobradek, to terminate its electoral alliance with STAN and instead offer them some positions on the Christian Democrat lists. An offer STAN has now rejected, so both parties are now running on their own. The two last polls showed the alliance on 9.9% and 10.5% respectively...

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http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/26/stan-wants-run-independently-general-elections
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Diouf
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2017, 01:43:23 PM »

Police asks parliament to release Babis for prosecution!

Interesting to see whether this new step will change anything for Babis and ANO. I would tend to think the effect would be negligible as the case has been known for long and is not completely clear. But perhaps the authority of the police means that this request for prosecution will hurt him more than some of the other cases.

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http://praguemonitor.com/2017/08/11/police-seek-mps-babi%C5%A1-falt%C3%BDneks-release-prosecution
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Diouf
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2017, 11:43:29 AM »

Babis stripped of immunity today. Once re-elected in a month time, parliament would have to vote again to strip immunity again.

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https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/06/world/europe/06reuters-czech-politics-babis.html?partner=IFTTT
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Diouf
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2017, 12:39:55 PM »

Helpful academics from the Charles University are making a rolling polling average here: http://kdovyhrajevolby.cz/

With the wildy differing polls with different ways of showing their results, this is a great tool.

Babis and ANO are still far ahead in the polls with CSSD and KSCM in distant second and third positions.

It seems like Tomio Okamura's new outfit SPD will end above the threshold despite a plethora of right-wing parties running (and most established parties also very opposed to non-Western migration). SPD is at 7,64% in the polling average. Svobodni (Free Citizens) with MEP Petr Mach is closest to the threshold of the small right-wing parties. Svobodni is a libertarian party with a strong Eurosceptic and anti-immigration message. Nigel Farage participated in a few of their events. Several other parties cover the spectrum from far-right to out-right nazi; e.g. Bloc Against Islamization, Czech National Front, Realists, Workers' Party of Social Justice.

The Czech Pirate Party is above the 5%-threshold, largely due to a significant support from young and urban voters. The Pirates finished first in the secondary school election this week, where they received 24.5% of the votes. ANO and TOP09 both over 10%, while big, old parties like KDU-CSL, KSCM and CSSD all received less than 4%. The main talking points of the Pirates are transparency, opposition corruption, less surveillance etc. Party leader Ivan Bartos has also criticized Babis' biggest achievement, the electronic registration of sales (EET), which he believes is not a good solution for "online shops and small entrepreneurs".
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Diouf
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2017, 09:17:32 AM »

Voting Intention according to age groups



Likely Voters aged 18-24



Likely Voters aged 65+


Voter movement since 2013

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Diouf
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2017, 09:52:48 AM »

As the above voter movement shows, 22% of 2013 CSSD will now vote for ANO. Additionally ANO also attracts a lot of 2013 non-voters, particularly people with lower education,. The former non-voters make up more than one fifth of its current support.

Babis have warned against other parties trying to form a anti-ANO government, particularly aiming at TOP09 leader Miroslav Kalousek. "Kalousek is trying to form an anti-Babis government. He is trying to make his cabinet of traditional political parties. He scares people with nonsense without having a single piece of evidence to prove [his assertion about] ANO as a threat to democracy. I don't know how we could be threatening democracy." As the red line for government negotiations, Babis mentions maintaining the systems of the electronic registration of sales (EET) and the ledger statements. He said that there were good people in different parties with whom he could negotiate with, so he might be hoping for a post-election revolt in CSSD or ODS, which could bring about a new leader willing to talk to him. He also explicitly mentions the Pirates as a possible government partner:"I would have no problem [governing] with them. Let them be in charge of IT and digitisation, which is their strong side. Let them show how they will put things in order for the Czech Republic to become like Estonia, where people do not have to turn up at authorities personally". The Pirates have not closed the door completely, but says that coalition with Babis is very unlikely.

It has been announced that MEP Pavel Telička, who was the lead member for ANO in the 2014 European elections, is no longer affiliated to the party. He has a leading role in ALDE in the EP, but his disagreements with Babis has been clear for a while, particularly on European and Foreign policy.

ODS have again warned about a potential ANO, Communists, Okamura coalition after the elections, and that this would be "a fall to the political bottom and the worst threat to Czech democracy since 1989". Babis previously said he wouldn't form a cabinet with the Communists, but it could potentially be his last resort.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/10/11/ano-seeks-election-result-preventing-birth-anti-ano-govt
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Diouf
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2017, 06:56:57 AM »

Today is the last day that pollsters can announce their results before the election. The final average from the researchers at Charles University is as follows:

ANO 26.18% (67 seats)
CSSD 13.13% (32)
KSCM 11.58% (27)
ODS 9.36% (20)
SPD 8.51% (18)
Pirates 6.98% (15)
TOP09 6.42% (11)
KDU-CSL 5.37% (10)
STAN 3.69% (0)
Greens 3% (0)
Free Citizens 2.25% (0)
Realists 0.98% (0)

ANO is still the clear front-runner, although they have dropped a bit over the last few months. Behind ANO, the picture is very fragmented, although the Social Democrats are bit ahead in the battle for 2nd. If one of the party leaders catches fire as the "anti-Babis" option in the last days, then that could potentially boost one of the parties by a lot, but there does not seem to be any obvious candidate for this. Many voters are still doubting their choice, and with a turnout that was only around 60% in 2013, mobilization of new voters could also make a big difference. It looks like the battle of the threshold will be intense. STAN is getting surprisingly close on its own, while the Christian Democrats looks likely to just make it. The Pirates need a strong youth vote to take their spots in parliament, while Okamura looks to have won the battle among the many far-right parties.

It still looks like Babis will need at least two parties to support him; the ANO-Communist-SPD option, which he has publicly rejected but the other parties keep warning about,  has a majority(112 seats out of 200). Babis hopes that there will be a revolution on one or more of the other parties after the election, but it is very hard to judge how likely this is. The best bid is perhaps ODS where current leader Petr Fiala has been very critical of Babis and basically ruled out cooperation, but perhaps Vaclav Klaus Jr could take control of the party, which would make cooperation more likely. Such a shift could perhaps open up for a "logical" ANO-ODS government, including or supported by SPD. President Zeman might try again to initate a riot in his former party CSSD, but after the failed attempt in 2013 and his increasingly hostile attitude towards Sobotka as PM, that looks less likely. However, even if coalition building looks difficult for Babis, it looks even more difficult to form one without him. The weird establishment option (CSSD, ODS, TOP09, KDU-CSL) is far from a majority (83 seats) and would be almost unworkable. Similarly a centre-leftish (KDU-CSL, CSSD, Pirates, Communists) majority looks far away (84), and would be extremely hard to navigate as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2017, 03:51:22 AM »

Some media outlets have speculated whether Babis can convince one of the mainstream parties to cooperation with the "Pilný-model"; i.e. Babis not leading or being part of the government himself. The most talked about option is Environment Minister Richard Brabec, who was previously a manager in the chemical industry; some of the time in Babis companies.
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Diouf
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2017, 04:08:16 PM »

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Well, the general economic ideology seems relatively centrist, despite Babis talk of ruling as a "business man". ANO has largely accepted a Social Democrat policy with many wage increases and many public investments, the booming Czech economy has also meant that there haven't been a lot of pressure to make "tough decisions". In fact, several business have started to talk about a lack of workers, and Babis have suggested bringing in Eastern European workers, which several parties have attacked him on in recent days. I would think the economic policies of a future ANO-led cabinet will depend a lot on the coaliton partner. Babis main focus have been the EET, the electronic registration of all transactions of companies to avoid fraud. He will probably insist on keeping and expanding that system. He also wants a new VAT system to fight fraud better, but that probably needs a European consensus.

On immigration, he is, like most parties, very critical of non-western immigration, especially the EU refugee quotas. He is against a swift introduction of the euro, but is otherwise not that Eurosceptic, and underlines the economic benefits of the cooperation.

Like most protest movements, he also has a lot of big plans on how to make democracy better, abolish Senate, introduce FPTP, stronger executive etc.. If ANO ends up relying on Pirates or SPD, there might actually be some changes to the democratic system, although hopefully any small coalition partner will avoid a move to an unfair electoral system.
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Diouf
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2017, 04:38:53 AM »

So polls are open from today 14.00-22.00 and tomorrow from 08.00-14.00.

The offical result page is here: https://volby.cz/

CTK television coverage should be here and currently works for me: http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

Additional coverage can be found at major newspapers like Blesk(tabloid) http://www.blesk.cz/ DNES(serious, centre-right, owned by Babis' Agrofert) http://zpravy.idnes.cz/ and the centre left (Pravo/Novinky): https://www.novinky.cz/

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