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Author Topic: New York 2004-2016 Comparison  (Read 1707 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
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« on: May 04, 2017, 12:56:03 am »
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Despite the fact that Hillary Clinton won New York by 22% points, she still won less counties than John Kerry, who did four points worse.

2004


Kerry +18.28%



2016

Clinton +22.49%




Look at that red disappear up North.  And Long Island?  Clinton was able to beat Kerry's margins by doing 10-15% points better in Manhattan, The Bronx, Brooklyn, and Westchester County.  Pretty weird.  Thoughts? 
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2017, 01:03:17 am »
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The upstate NY economy is sh**t and running as a Wall Street friendly pro trade neoliberal did not impress them.
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Kellywise
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2017, 09:55:35 am »
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The upstate NY economy is sh**t and running as a Wall Street friendly pro trade neoliberal did not impress them.

You forgot wamongering corporatist after your cliched "neoliberal," jfern.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2017, 11:50:24 am »
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The upstate NY economy is sh**t and running as a Wall Street friendly pro trade neoliberal did not impress them.

Regardless of your opinion of what Hillary Clinton actually thinks, saying she RAN AS those things is demonstrably false.  She literally ran ads here in Iowa attacking Trump for being a selfish billionaire who's secretly pro-free-trade, given the amount of outsourcing his business has done...
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2017, 12:15:37 pm »
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Makes sense. NYC area has very few counties and most are fairly Safe D, so any huge difference in county maps is going to come from Upstate, which is a minority of the state's population.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2017, 12:31:11 pm »
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Makes sense. NYC area has very few counties and most are fairly Safe D, so any huge difference in county maps is going to come from Upstate, which is a minority of the state's population.

For your entertainment, I have been working on these for multiple states using the 2016 Census estimates; here is NY's population breakdown:

DOWNSTATE NEW YORK: 13,719,687
New York City: 8,537,673
Instate Suburbs: 5,182,014
  Long Island Suburbs: 2,854,083
  Hudson Valley Suburbs: 2,327,931

UPSTATE NEW YORK: 6,025,602
Capital Region: 1,085386
Mohawk Valley: 488,321
North Country: 425,035
Central New York: 782,441
Southern Tier: 644,428
Finger Lakes: 1,212,929
Western New York: 1,387,062

All in All:

69.48% Downstate/Greater New York (43.24% NYC, 26.24% Suburbs)
30.52% Upstate New York

For comparison's sake, Illinois is 66.31% Chicagoland, 33.69% Downstate Illinois, so JUST a tad less dominated by its main city.
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Kellywise
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2017, 01:58:07 pm »
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The upstate NY economy is sh**t and running as a Wall Street friendly pro trade neoliberal did not impress them.

Regardless of your opinion of what Hillary Clinton actually thinks, saying she RAN AS those things is demonstrably false.  She literally ran ads here in Iowa attacking Trump for being a selfish billionaire who's secretly pro-free-trade, given the amount of outsourcing his business has done...

You're speaking to jfern, who thinks that she's Satan Incarnate.
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m&m
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2017, 02:56:41 am »
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The upstate NY economy is sh**t and running as a Wall Street friendly pro trade neoliberal did not impress them.

Regardless of your opinion of what Hillary Clinton actually thinks, saying she RAN AS those things is demonstrably false.  She literally ran ads here in Iowa attacking Trump for being a selfish billionaire who's secretly pro-free-trade, given the amount of outsourcing his business has done...

I agree more with Republicans who criticize Clinton for having progressive policies than Berniecrats who criticize her for having conservative neoliberal policies. Ironic.
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m&m
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2017, 03:03:21 am »
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It is weird too, Clinton essentially did worse than Kerry in nearly every county except for Bronx, Queens, Kings, and New York counties.

What I wanna know is why Gore did so amazingly well in downstate New York. He wrecked Bush in all five NYC boroughs, and all thorough Long Island. Bush went from having the 3rd best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2000) to having the best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2004).
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2017, 03:56:35 am »
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It is weird too, Clinton essentially did worse than Kerry in nearly every county except for Bronx, Queens, Kings, and New York counties.

What I wanna know is why Gore did so amazingly well in downstate New York. He wrecked Bush in all five NYC boroughs, and all thorough Long Island. Bush went from having the 3rd best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2000) to having the best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2004).

Gun control politics.
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2017, 03:16:38 pm »
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Why did NYC suburbs trend Trump (esp Suffolk and to a lesser extent Staten Island) unlike suburbs in the rest of the country?
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2017, 03:36:05 pm »
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Why did NYC suburbs trend Trump (esp Suffolk and to a lesser extent Staten Island) unlike suburbs in the rest of the country?

Italian americans swung heavily towards trump when in 2008 and 2012 they went swung towards obama.  Also a lot of the swing to trump in suburban areas where in areas that were on the lower scale of middle class and had more some college education+HS only compared to higher income/bachelor degrees+

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/education-best-explains-the-presidential-swing-map/

Decisiondeskhq compared these set of precints to prove it.


Also about Italian americans. They were once the bastion of the democratic party pre-1940s.  But after 1940s, suburbanization, disagreements over abortion and a "southernization" of italians into supporting security/Law and order candidates like Giuliani because of tensions with other races. Made them go towards the GOP. Also italian americans were one of the poorer white ethnics so there is a lot more of them compared to other white ethnic groups in the country, who are lower middle class and even working class. With many still doing blue collar work. Which helped Trump in swinging them heavily in 2016.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 03:39:27 pm by ( ͡ ͜ʖ ͡) »Logged
SWE
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2017, 10:15:54 pm »
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Why did NYC suburbs trend Trump (esp Suffolk and to a lesser extent Staten Island) unlike suburbs in the rest of the country?
Obama overperformed there in 2012 thanks to Sandy.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2017, 03:19:34 pm »
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If you take out NYC, Hillary beat Trump by just 0.1% in rest of the state.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2017, 08:40:44 am »
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It is weird too, Clinton essentially did worse than Kerry in nearly every county except for Bronx, Queens, Kings, and New York counties.

What I wanna know is why Gore did so amazingly well in downstate New York. He wrecked Bush in all five NYC boroughs, and all thorough Long Island. Bush went from having the 3rd best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2000) to having the best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2004).

I think Hillary carried Albany County by a larger margin than Kerry did.  Also, she won Dutchess County, which Kerry lost.

Edit: Hillary also outperformed Kerry in Westchester, Monroe, Onondaga, and Tompkins Counties.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 08:53:07 pm by TDAS04 »Logged

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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2017, 02:34:09 pm »
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It is weird too, Clinton essentially did worse than Kerry in nearly every county except for Bronx, Queens, Kings, and New York counties.

What I wanna know is why Gore did so amazingly well in downstate New York. He wrecked Bush in all five NYC boroughs, and all thorough Long Island. Bush went from having the 3rd best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2000) to having the best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2004).

Bill Clinton was extremely popular in NYC, and in 2000 the economy was fairly strong. Bush was also a bad fit with NYC and the suburbs given his Texas background and Christian conservatism. He did better in 2004 because of the 9/11 effect.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2017, 03:10:40 pm »
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It is weird too, Clinton essentially did worse than Kerry in nearly every county except for Bronx, Queens, Kings, and New York counties.

What I wanna know is why Gore did so amazingly well in downstate New York. He wrecked Bush in all five NYC boroughs, and all thorough Long Island. Bush went from having the 3rd best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2000) to having the best performance for a Republican in New York in the 21st century (2004).

Gun control politics.


This. Gun control was a huge issue in the 2000 election, maybe the number one issue (Social Security reform/privatization being the only other real contender). Plus Lieberman was on the ballot, so more conservative Jews (of which most nationwide are concentrated in the NY area) who otherwise vote Republican mostly voted for Gore.
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hopper
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2017, 08:51:53 pm »
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If you take out NYC, Hillary beat Trump by just 0.1% in rest of the state.
That's like a Florida 2000 result!
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2017, 02:05:35 am »
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Major anti-Trump sentiment in NYC area and Ithaca.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2017, 03:19:48 pm »
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Trump, as he did nationwide, was able to collect mass amounts of Rural and Working class areas in them to vote for him who would usally vote democratic. This was able to allow him to do better in the upstate where these people are abundant and as we see on the map. The working class appeal was able to appeal to both the upstate city's were he did better in city's like Buffalo and Rochester off the backs of these traditional democratic voters. I for one was pretty surprised at how close Erie County containing Buffalo was. This trend was across most of upstate New York except Ithaca which is a college town and should probably be expected. On Long Island the same thing happened and he was able to win Suffolk 51-44 mainly because it's a poor to middle class white working class county and he was able to do better then Romney in Nassau mainly with improved performances in Oyster Bay (though wasn't able to win the county due to more college educated and wealthier areas like in long Beach swinging against him). But all in all New York is decided is decided by NYC and NYC swung against trump and so trump does worse than bush in 2004 because he did worse.
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