Post-2020 reapportionment projections

[SoLongAtlas]

Wanted to see if any projections have been made on this and found a result from Sabato.



Another projection for 2024 from 270towin http://www.270towin.com/custom-maps/projected-2024-electoral-vote-allocation

Do you agree with these projections? What would be your projections? Skeptical about Virginia gaining a seat. A lot of that is dependent on how many military/NoVA folks we have instate and that is an ever changing number due to PCS and out of state moves for civilian contractors and tech types outside of DC.

[muon2]

I update projections every Dec and they are in the sticky thread on Census estimates.

[jimrtex]

I update projections every Dec and they are in the sticky thread on Census estimates.

I though the question was about the 2030 Census and beyond (though the article linked to was for the 2024 election).

IL, MI, OH, PA, and NY will continue to lose one seat per census, and IL may lose a second.

When you get down to 10 seats, you have to be growing at 10% slower than the country as a whole to be lose a seat every decade. Since the country is growing slower than 10%, a state would have to actually lose population. MI has that potential as a purer rust-belt play than most.

NJ is losing a seat every two decades, and will likely lose one in 2030.

CT, IN, and WI are losing one seat every 3 decades. CT and WI are strong candidates to lose a seat in 2030. IN would be on the cusp.

WI will drop below MN, as the Twin Cities clearly dominate the upper Midwest. Wisconsin has many more cities, while Minnesota has five (Twin Cities, Duluth, St.Cloud, Rochester, and Mankato, or seven if you count the ones that are mostly in North Dakota).

So that is eight clear losses, and the possibility of two more in IL and IN.

NE is just above the threshold for three, but is actually growing faster than the country as a whole. But if it slips it could drop the third city.

FL is gaining two seats every decade, and Texas 3, and UT should be due for another.

Other possibilities are CA, FL, MT, and WA. Given eight clear losses, and only six clear gains, two of these are quite likely.

Longer term losses in smaller states:

AR in 2060
KS in 2050
KY in 2050
ME in 2050
MS in 2040
MO in 2040
NH in 2060
NM in 2040

Longer term gains in smaller states:

GA in 2040
ID in 2040
NV in 2040
NC in 2040/50
SC in 2050
VA in 2030/40

[muon2]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

[SoLongAtlas]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

NY's influence is waning more and more but still is a key prize for the Dems. It will be hard for the GOP to make inroads there in a presidential race because it's maxed out D in the cities and upstate is dying, moving away. I can see a split GOP/Dem Maine, and a GOP NH though but they have to moderate and ditch the religious plank, something I don't think will happen for a few decades at least. Wow at FL too. Big gains. I wonder how much of this is due to the large Puerto Rican influx, any numbers on that?

[Nyvin]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

[SoLongAtlas]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

[Nyvin]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

[SoLongAtlas]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

2012 NC results
                        Romney            Obama
Popular vote   2,270,395   2,178,391
Percentage   50.39%           48.35%

2016 NC results
                        Trump               Clinton
Popular vote   2,362,631   2,189,316
Percentage   49.84%           46.17%

It trended R. Slight but still swung R. Above average swing (2.74%) to Johnson which made it look like a swing to the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

2012 NC results
                        Romney            Obama
Popular vote   2,270,395   2,178,391
Percentage   50.39%           48.35%

2016 NC results
                        Trump               Clinton
Popular vote   2,362,631   2,189,316
Percentage   49.84%           46.17%

It trended R. Slight but still swung R. Above average swing (2.74%) to Johnson which made it look like a swing to the Democrats.

Swing and Trend are different.

[SoLongAtlas]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

2012 NC results
                        Romney            Obama
Popular vote   2,270,395   2,178,391
Percentage   50.39%           48.35%

2016 NC results
                        Trump               Clinton
Popular vote   2,362,631   2,189,316
Percentage   49.84%           46.17%

It trended R. Slight but still swung R. Above average swing (2.74%) to Johnson which made it look like a swing to the Democrats.

Swing and Trend are different.

Ok. Granted. So would for swing for GOP I have -0.55% and for Dems -2.18%. Both are negative swings, Johnson factoring in, but still advantage Republicans. Equation: current election % - previous election %. Are you going by MoV 2016 minus 2012? If so then it did trend Dem (3.66%-2.04%=1.62 trend to Dem)

[Lachi]

A simple look into Dave's election atlas shows that the D trend in 2016 was not really anything significant at all, a measly 0.15%

[Nyvin]

Ok. Granted. So would for swing for GOP I have -0.55% and for Dems -2.18%. Both are negative swings, Johnson factoring in, but still advantage Republicans. Equation: current election % - previous election %. Are you going by MoV 2016 minus 2012? If so then it did trend Dem (3.66%-2.04%=1.62 trend to Dem)

No,  you compare it to the national margin to get trend.   Swing is just the raw state vote.

The NC trend was almost nothing, but it was D.

[SingingAnalyst]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

2012 NC results
                        Romney            Obama
Popular vote   2,270,395   2,178,391
Percentage   50.39%           48.35%

2016 NC results
                        Trump               Clinton
Popular vote   2,362,631   2,189,316
Percentage   49.84%           46.17%

It trended R. Slight but still swung R. Above average swing (2.74%) to Johnson which made it look like a swing to the Democrats.

Swing and Trend are different.

Ok. Granted. So would for swing for GOP I have -0.55% and for Dems -2.18%. Both are negative swings, Johnson factoring in, but still advantage Republicans. Equation: current election % - previous election %. Are you going by MoV 2016 minus 2012? If so then it did trend Dem (3.66%-2.04%=1.62 trend to Dem)

Excellent thread and comments. I believe the 2020 reapportionment will essentially be a "wash". In the past, most reapportionment favored the GOP (in the sense that the Republican Sunbelt was growing at the expense of the Democratic Northeast, Rust Belt, and Appalachia). Today, as has been pointed out, most of the fast-growing states trended D in 2016 (and I see no reason to think the trend will not continue) and most of the slow-growing or declining states trended R in 2016 (and will probably continue to do so).

Here's what I found, from Dec. 2017, which essentially matches the maps in this thread: https://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2017/12/21/2020-congressional-reapportionment-an-update/

[Zaybay]

Here's a map of my projections for the next reapportionment.

So unless I'm mistaken,  all of the states except Florida that are gaining a seat trended D last year, while all the states that are losing a seat except Illinois trended R.

Yes, but add in NC - it will gain but trended R. Still a very close battleground state but with less of the dynamics to make it tilt blue that VA has.

Nope, NC just barely trended D last year.

2012 NC results
                        Romney            Obama
Popular vote   2,270,395   2,178,391
Percentage   50.39%           48.35%

2016 NC results
                        Trump               Clinton
Popular vote   2,362,631   2,189,316
Percentage   49.84%           46.17%

It trended R. Slight but still swung R. Above average swing (2.74%) to Johnson which made it look like a swing to the Democrats.

Swing and Trend are different.

Ok. Granted. So would for swing for GOP I have -0.55% and for Dems -2.18%. Both are negative swings, Johnson factoring in, but still advantage Republicans. Equation: current election % - previous election %. Are you going by MoV 2016 minus 2012? If so then it did trend Dem (3.66%-2.04%=1.62 trend to Dem)

Excellent thread and comments. I believe the 2020 reapportionment will essentially be a "wash". In the past, most reapportionment favored the GOP (in the sense that the Republican Sunbelt was growing at the expense of the Democratic Northeast, Rust Belt, and Appalachia). Today, as has been pointed out, most of the fast-growing states trended D in 2016 (and I see no reason to think the trend will not continue) and most of the slow-growing or declining states trended R in 2016 (and will probably continue to do so).

Here's what I found, from Dec. 2017, which essentially matches the maps in this thread: https://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2017/12/21/2020-congressional-reapportionment-an-update/

Electorally-wise,it will be a wash. D trending states are getting more votes, but they still arent D states, while D states that are trending R are losing votes.

But House-wise, this will favor the Ds, the districts lost are largely going to be R rurals while the districts gained will be urban/suburban seats in the Sunbelt.