Is this UK election most like 2001

[OSR stands with Israel]

In which the incumbent party is almost certain to win a landslide victory throughout the campaign , and the opposition party due to weak leadership cant do anything to narrow the gap.

One more question is The labour party now in as much trouble as the tories in the early 2000s or more

[Phony Moderate]

The concept of swing is a very vital one in our elections, so no. 2001 had minimal changes while the government this time looks set to get a significant swing towards it.

I'd say there are some parallels with 1955. Socially awkward PM who is nonetheless fairly popular in the country, an elderly opposition leader (who was very different to Corbyn but still) leading a hopelessly infighting party and (in all likelihood) a much increased majority for the government.

[adma]

2001 was really more of a status quo type of election.  Hague might have been a weak challenger to Blair; but he wasn't a palpable black-hole-in-the-making a la Corbyn--his already-decimated base held; there was very little turnover

1983 remains a stronger comparison on "suicide-note" grounds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2001 was really more of a status quo type of election.  Hague might have been a weak challenger to Blair; but he wasn't a palpable black-hole-in-the-making a la Corbyn--his already-decimated base held; there was very little turnover

1983 remains a stronger comparison on "suicide-note" grounds.

What it does have in common with 2001 is the odd sense of lethargy that comes from being pretty certain of the outcome but without a mass wave of enthusiasm behind that fact, but, yes.

[Blair]

2001 was actually a boring election because well nothing really changed on election night- at least with this was we've got the drama of seeing how bad the final results are (and the joy of working out how many MPs will nominate Clive Lewis)

[mgop]

yeah. sure tories will gain some and labour will lose some seats, but nothing will drastically change. still conservative gov, still snp at 50+ seats, and still lib dems around 8 seats.

[adma]

yeah. sure tories will gain some and labour will lose some seats, but nothing will drastically change. still conservative gov, still snp at 50+ seats, and still lib dems around 8 seats.

The point is more that Labour's not commonly expected to lose *some* seats, it's expected to lose *a whole lot of* seats.  And even if they miraculously recover to, at the very least, Milliband levels (which some polls are showing as a possibility), *that'll* count as a reverse shocker.

Not 2001-boring at all.

[joevsimp]

I think that Labour are hoping that this will be like 1987, when it is actually going to be like 1983

[Blair]

I think that Labour are hoping that this will be like 1987, when it is actually going to be like 1983

Or 1935.

[Suburbia]

I think the 2017 UK snap election is like 2001. A bit boring, which could hurt voter turnout. Voters may be apathetic and say, "Tories will win again, yawn, I'll stay home, it doesn't matter, May, Corbyn, they are all the same".

[brucejoel99]

2001 was actually a boring election because well nothing really changed on election night- at least with this was we've got the drama of seeing how bad the final results are (and the joy of working out how many if there'll even be enough MPs will to nominate Clive Lewis)

FTFY

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

May, Corbyn, they are all the same

amazing

[adma]

I think the 2017 UK snap election is like 2001. A bit boring, which could hurt voter turnout. Voters may be apathetic and say, "Tories will win again, yawn, I'll stay home, it doesn't matter, May, Corbyn, they are all the same".

Again: re Corbyn, we're looking at something *beneath* all-the-same.  Hague didn't generate the same laughing-gas negatives...

[Phony Moderate]

2001 was actually a boring election because well nothing really changed on election night- at least with this was we've got the drama of seeing how bad the final results are (and the joy of working out how many if there'll even be enough MPs will to nominate Clive Lewis)

FTFY

Well (like any other leadership candidate) he'd need 15% of the PLP, regardless of how large it is.

[OSR stands with Israel]

You can also argue that Tories being in such a bad position from 1997-2001 , it should have resulted in a 30 seat gain instead of status quo. Things were so bad for Tories then that Status quo was an embarrassing result.

[Phony Moderate]

You can also argue that Tories being in such a bad position from 1997-2001 , it should have resulted in a 30 seat gain instead of status quo. Things were so bad for Tories then that Status quo was an embarrassing result.

Yes, a failure that is still endlessly talked of today, no doubt...

[Blair]

You can also argue that Tories being in such a bad position from 1997-2001 , it should have resulted in a 30 seat gain instead of status quo. Things were so bad for Tories then that Status quo was an embarrassing result.

You tend to reach a barrier in British politics where even politicians at their complete prime e.g Thatcher/Blair/May simply cannot win seats which have a 20k majority

[brucejoel99]

2001 was actually a boring election because well nothing really changed on election night- at least with this was we've got the drama of seeing how bad the final results are (and the joy of working out how many if there'll even be enough MPs will to nominate Clive Lewis)

FTFY

Well (like any other leadership candidate) he'd need 15% of the PLP, regardless of how large it is.

Well, considering last time Corbyn only secured 36 nominations (one more than was needed to qualify for the contest) & as many as 12 of the MPs who nominated him actually supported other candidates but lent him their support to get him on the ballot paper, it may will be tougher still.

Besides, if there's a heavy defeat on the 8th of June, I wouldn't be shocked if the PLP just gives the leadership to Yvette Cooper by acclamation, just as they did w/ Brown.

[IceAgeComing]

...that's not going to happen.

[brucejoel99]

...that's not going to happen.

Didn't say it would. In fact, I'm sure if Corbyn does go, it ends up being an actual contest between Cooper & Starmer (& possibly Lewis). All I said was that I wouldn't be shocked if the PLP did just acclaim Cooper.

[Barnes]

Yeah, um, the only thing interesting about the 2001 election was the decrease in turnout, and that it was delayed due to foot and mouth disease.

Recall that during the height of the fuel shortage in 2000, the Tories took an illusory lead in the polls as people complained about prices. This then evaporated into the irrelevant political ether.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For better or worse the Labour Party reflects its Trade Union roots in many respects and one of this is a certain, how shall we say, barrack room lawyer attitude to rules and procedure. Any speculation based on 'ah but what if they ignore the rules' can be thrown right out.

[Barnes]

For better or worse the Labour Party reflects its Trade Union roots in many respects and one of this is a certain, how shall we say, barrack room lawyer attitude to rules and procedure. Any speculation based on 'ah but what if they ignore the rules' can be thrown right out.

Exactly! As compared to the Tories who didn't even know how to elect a leader until 1965!