WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[RogueBeaver]

Breaking.

[Libertarian in Name Only]

I'd call this a tossup for now.

[Figueira]

Hopefully the good people of West Virginia will reject this monster.

[Pericles]

Manchin is favoured but it could be tougher than in 2010 and 2012 and he may lose.

[JMT]

Apparently Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is likely to enter as well. Who would win that primary battle?

[AppleJackass]

Good. Tossup/Lean R for now.

[Xing]

I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

[TheSaint250]

I'd say Manchin's seat is, at the least, lean D.  Like the poster above said, he's pretty entrenched.  Trump even seems to like him.

[publicunofficial]

Lean D

[Ronnie]

God, Republicans are such frauds.  They have absolutely nothing to offer to their constituents other than appealing to their cultural grievances.  And that ad proves it.

I'm inclined to think Jenkins will win, though.  Why would people vote for Republican-lite if they can have the real thing?

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn.

[DrScholl]

It will be hard to knock off Manchin in a Republican-trifecta midterm. West Virginia is a dependent state and Manchin is more in favor bringing money into the state than any Republican. Plus, it's a Medicaid expansion state and there are plenty of people who cannot afford to lose their health care.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Ugh. What a terrible phony. The good people of West Virginia must realize what horror Mr. Jenkins will bring to their state, and not worry about Manchin "caving" to "New York liberals" over cultural stuff, which isn't even an actual issue. Democrats should try and secure Manchin's re-election over trying to chase Texas, if they end up in a dilemma like that. He's a dying breed that the Democrats need to return to their party.

Oh, yes, Mr. Jenkins, chase that strawman. The powder on your face and the utterances from you mouth will never stop the progress of the state of West Virginia!!!

D+1.

[RINO Tom]

God, Republicans are such frauds.  They have absolutely nothing to offer to their constituents other than appealing to their cultural grievances.  And that ad proves it.

I'm inclined to think Jenkins will win, though.  Why would people vote for Republican-lite if they can have the real thing?

Well, I mean, they might prefer "Republican-lite" (though I'll echo TN Vol's opinion that Manchin is not "Republican-lite").

[PAK Man]

Why is everyone assuming Manchin is DOA? West Virginia Dems have proven they still have staying power (Jim Justice and John Perdue say hello). Plus Manchin is very much the only Democrat who can still win in West Virginia. At the very least, it's a Tossup. I wouldn't go calling it Lean R anytime soon.

[bore]

West Virginia Dems have proven they still have staying power (Jim Justice and John Perdue say hello).

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lol

[Miles]

Old news.

[Maxwell]

we'll see if he goes through the primary unchallenged. I suspect a lot of Republicans want to take on Joe Manchin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely D.

[Figueira]

Old news.

He didn't make it official until now though.

Anyway, I'd call this Tilt R. Neither Manchin nor Jenkins should be underestimated.

[KingSweden]

Apparently Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is likely to enter as well. Who would win that primary battle?

Probably Jenkins.

[Lord Admirale]

Manchin works very well with Trump, plus West Virginia is an odd state as it votes solidly Republican in presidential elections, yet keeps electing Democrats as Governor/Senator. Capito is the first Republican Senator since the New Deal, but 2014 was a huge Republican year.

[Heisenberg]

Manchin works very well with Trump, plus West Virginia is an odd state as it votes solidly Republican in presidential elections, yet keeps electing Democrats as Governor/Senator. Capito is the first Republican Senator since the New Deal, but 2014 was a huge Republican year.

Chapman Revercomb?

[RINO Tom]

Apparently Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is likely to enter as well. Who would win that primary battle?

Probably Jenkins.

(I know nothing about the candidates at all, but...) Didn't one of our WV posters one time say that because WV has closed primaries and such a huge Democratic registration advantage, the GOP primary electorate isn't markedly more socially conservative than the Democratic one, usually yielding relatively moderate GOP candidates?

[Maxwell]

Apparently Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is likely to enter as well. Who would win that primary battle?

Probably Jenkins.

(I know nothing about the candidates at all, but...) Didn't one of our WV posters one time say that because WV has closed primaries and such a huge Democratic registration advantage, the GOP primary electorate isn't markedly more socially conservative than the Democratic one, usually yielding relatively moderate GOP candidates?

It's only been so recently that the WV GOP. Has been a relevant force in west Virginia politics that we really don't know how the dynamics of q competitive primary would work.