WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I am honestly surprised to see a tweet come out from Donald Trump Jr that actually has some level of logical though process in it.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin will still win. He’s popular with several Trump voters. The Dems should focus more on Heitkamp.

Manchin is in the best position of all the Romney-state Democrats. He currently leads in the RCP average by 9.4 points. Heitkamp is behind by nearly the same margin (8.7 points), while McCaskill trails Hawley by less than 1 point, Donnelly leads by 2.5, and Tester is ahead by 3. At this point, I believe Heitkamp will lose. McCaskill and Donnelly each have a 50-50 shot of losing. Tester will probably survive. It's ironic that Manchin is doing better than the other four, given that West Virginia was Trump's best state, out of these.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am honestly surprised to see a tweet come out from Donald Trump Jr that actually has some level of logical though process in it.

[Storr]

My view on Manchin is that he's better than a Republican. He's definitely better than the Republican that would be in the seat if Manchin wasn't. Because it's West Virginia we know they'd be a very Trumpy Republican. If Bredesen wins in Tennessee, that will be my view on him as well. Furthermore, from a broader view I do like the party having ideological diversity. Yes it can be annoying when it comes to close Senate votes, but I'm glad we haven't seen any 'more ideological pure' primary challenges in statewide races be successful among Democrats....yet. In my mind, the best Senators are the ones who do what they feel is best, especially when it may put their political future in jeopardy. I'm not saying Joe Manchin is this, it seems to me most of the positions he takes against the Democratic caucus are so he can stay politically viable in West Virginia. The fact the state that Trump received the highest percentage of votes in 2016 has a competitive Senate election two years later, while the most liberal state with a competitive Senate election is....what, Florida or Nevada?, says a lot about the ideological diversity of the two parties. (I for one, feel the hype over Menendez is much about nothing.)

[Calthrina950]

My view on Manchin is that he's better than a Republican. He's definitely better than the Republican that would be in the seat if Manchin wasn't. Because it's West Virginia we know they'd be a very Trumpy Republican. If Bredesen wins in Tennessee, that will be my view on him as well. Furthermore, from a broader view I do like the party having ideological diversity. Yes it can be annoying when it comes to close Senate votes, but I'm glad we haven't seen any 'more ideological pure' primary challenges in statewide races be successful among Democrats....yet. In my mind, the best Senators are the ones who do what they feel is best, especially when it may put their political future in jeopardy. I'm not saying Joe Manchin is this, it seems to me most of the positions he takes against the Democratic caucus are so he can stay politically viable in West Virginia. The fact the state that Trump received the highest percentage of votes in 2016 has a competitive Senate election two years later, while the most liberal state with a competitive Senate election is....what, Florida or Nevada?, says a lot about the ideological diversity of the two parties. (I for one, feel the hype over Menendez is much about nothing.)

Welcome to the forum, and I agree with you. A party with greater ideological diversity is a party that will be more successful in the long run.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LMAO SNL already did a parody and it's hilarious, features Graham lauding Manchin at 2:17 and Manchin punching Schumer in the area at 5:00 lmao!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgO3pBfrgxs

[IceSpear]

Do you guys think the people in this video will vote for Manchin or Morrisey?

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

[mvd10]

Do you guys think the people in this video will vote for Manchin or Morrisey?

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

Iirc turnout in McDowell County was 36% in 2016, so I guess that's your answer .

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

They'll vote for manchin b/c he's a #populist

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I agree very much with this good article

“I have suggested that if President Donald Trump pays one more Patrick Morrisey-inspired visit to the Mountain State, it might spell victory for the Republican Attorney General over incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. Word this week is that Trump is coming back — this time to the southern coal fields where he is worshiped as nearly a god.”

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/opinion/ron-gregory-ojeda-miller-race-might-not-be-that-close/article_35c799a6-c9a0-11e8-876b-9fd30bdf52a7.html

[Roblox]

I agree very much with this good article

“I have suggested that if President Donald Trump pays one more Patrick Morrisey-inspired visit to the Mountain State, it might spell victory for the Republican Attorney General over incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. Word this week is that Trump is coming back — this time to the southern coal fields where he is worshiped as nearly a god.”

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/opinion/ron-gregory-ojeda-miller-race-might-not-be-that-close/article_35c799a6-c9a0-11e8-876b-9fd30bdf52a7.html

Talk about the power of presidential visits to Pat Quinn or Martha Coakley.

[Mr. Smith]

I agree very much with this good article

“I have suggested that if President Donald Trump pays one more Patrick Morrisey-inspired visit to the Mountain State, it might spell victory for the Republican Attorney General over incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. Word this week is that Trump is coming back — this time to the southern coal fields where he is worshiped as nearly a god.”

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/opinion/ron-gregory-ojeda-miller-race-might-not-be-that-close/article_35c799a6-c9a0-11e8-876b-9fd30bdf52a7.html

Talk about the power of presidential visits to Pat Quinn or Martha Coakley.

Or Bruce Braley.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

None of those states had as much of an affinity for Obama as WV does for Trump.

[Skunk]

None of those states had as much of an affinity for Obama as WV does for Trump.

Yeah, I mean, Barack Obama hardly has anything to do with Illinois.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

None of those states had as much of an affinity for Obama as WV does for Trump.

Yeah, I mean, Barack Obama hardly has anything to do with Illinois.

Will you stop it. Yes, Illinois loves Obama a lot, but Trump has even a bigger draw to WV than Obama to IL.

[Roll Roons]

I agree very much with this good article

“I have suggested that if President Donald Trump pays one more Patrick Morrisey-inspired visit to the Mountain State, it might spell victory for the Republican Attorney General over incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. Word this week is that Trump is coming back — this time to the southern coal fields where he is worshiped as nearly a god.”

Talk about the power of presidential visits to Pat Quinn or Martha Coakley.

Or Bruce Braley.

Don't forget Anthony Brown!

[Mr. Smith]

None of those states had as much of an affinity for Obama as WV does for Trump.

Yeah, I mean, Barack Obama hardly has anything to do with Illinois.

Will you stop it. Yes, Illinois loves Obama a lot, but Trump has even a bigger draw to WV than Obama to IL.

Comparable to Obama and Massachusetts even, why, even a native-son got blown out there by double digits and the state swung towards him...not against.

And yet Coakley...

So once again...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

None of those states had as much of an affinity for Obama as WV does for Trump.

Yeah, I mean, Barack Obama hardly has anything to do with Illinois.

Will you stop it. Yes, Illinois loves Obama a lot, but Trump has even a bigger draw to WV than Obama to IL.

Comparable to Obama and Massachusetts even, why, even a native-son got blown out there by double digits and the state swung towards him...not against.

And yet Coakley...

So once again...

Obama did not win MA by 42 points have have a net 30 if not more approval there, plus things have only gotten more partisan over the last 6 years.

[IceSpear]

Bagel, can you answer my question in post #1272?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Do you guys think the people in this video will vote for Manchin or Morrisey?

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

I would guess this time Morrisey, but in the past they were Manchin voters.

[mvd10]

Do you guys think the people in this video will vote for Manchin or Morrisey?

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

I would guess this time Morrisey, but in the past they were Manchin voters.

They've mentioned Lebanon 3 times so by American standards they clearly are high-information voters. In the end they'd vote for Morrisey because of fiscal conservatism (they backed Wall Street candidate Hillary in 2008 too).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey feeling pretty confident, if I was him I would too. He also says Trump might be back in WV in Martinsburg in a bit to further provide a Trumpbump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/tri_state/west_virginia/morrisey-manchin-s-kavanaugh-vote-will-hamper-re-election-bid/article_b856108c-cb4e-11e8-9602-f363561ef869.amp.html

[IceSpear]

Do you guys think the people in this video will vote for Manchin or Morrisey?

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

I would guess this time Morrisey, but in the past they were Manchin voters.

They've mentioned Lebanon 3 times so by American standards they clearly are high-information voters. In the end they'd vote for Morrisey because of fiscal conservatism (they backed Wall Street candidate Hillary in 2008 too).

LOL

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, I am mentally preparing for Manchin to get Trumped to death

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/politics/trump-midterms-travel-final-four-weeks-strategy/index.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm not that positive on Manchin much anymore, but I will say that in 2010 when he won by over 10 pts the rcp only had him up by a little over 4 and there were many red polls. Now, not so much. Though there is still plenty of time left for more polls and I still think Morrisey edges out, these are slivers of good news.