WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think he will surprise people and win by about 10, possibly more with Blankenship.
It is a huge blind spot of Cook and Sabato to have this as a Tossup and Montana as Lean (Sabato) or Likely (Cook). Both should be at Lean. Inside Elections and Fox finally moved WV towards Manchin.

Really, I did not know about Fox doing that, that is a good move. Fox has actually pleasantly surprised me with their senate ratings, and honestly out of the pros they have the best map by far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, atta guy Manchin!

He just said this to a reporter:

“I’ll be 71 years old in August, you’re going to whip me? Kiss my you know what,” said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) when asked if Schumer can influence his vote…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/hotair.com/archives/2018/07/13/sen-manchin-chuck-schumer-can-kiss-know/amp/

[Gass3268]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, thank god the real intense stuff about his lobbying ties came out after he won the primary otherwise Manchin would be in the ring with Jenkins.

[Consciously Unconscious]

This seat is probably safe until Manchin retires.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin has got to be one of the most skilled and cunning politicians in my lifetime, like him or not, his electoral prowess is truly impressive.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, just wow.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Our King lives!!!! http://www.journal-news.net/news/local-news/2018/07/blankenship-says-he-has-the-signatures-to-run-again/

[Greedo punched first]

Our King lives!!!! http://www.journal-news.net/news/local-news/2018/07/blankenship-says-he-has-the-signatures-to-run-again/

If he can't get on the ballot because of the sore loser law, will he run as a write-in?

[Zaybay]

Our King lives!!!! http://www.journal-news.net/news/local-news/2018/07/blankenship-says-he-has-the-signatures-to-run-again/

YES! The S.S Blankenship is ready to go out and siphon some votes.

[OneJ]

Our King lives!!!! http://www.journal-news.net/news/local-news/2018/07/blankenship-says-he-has-the-signatures-to-run-again/

One of the few comments on the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can’t make this up. Smh.

[Zaybay]

Our King lives!!!! http://www.journal-news.net/news/local-news/2018/07/blankenship-says-he-has-the-signatures-to-run-again/

One of the few comments on the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can’t make this up. Smh.

I love the fact that all crazy Rs use the phrase "wake up!". Its odd, and amusing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daddy Don.

[DINGO Joe]

We can only hope that Beet with his newfound persona starts a "Chinapersons for Blankenship" movement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

YES

TAKE THAT, COCAINE MITCH

[Nathan Towne]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin. I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

[OneJ]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin.I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

This point here is overrated. Look at what happened in PA-18. That district was more pro-Trump than the national average. In fact, IIRC, Trump was slightly above water. And it also had a high PVI in favor of the GOP. Trump campaigned a couple of times for Saccone and it still wasn't enough. In Michigan, Obama's approval rating on election day was 54-45. His approval in WI was 52-47. His approval was 51-48 in PA. This didn't stop Trump from edging out in all of those states that I listed above. Not sure if him campaigning more often would make such a difference.

[Zaybay]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin. I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

This reeks of Democratic strategy during the Obama years. The idea was sort of like trickle down economics, except with politics. The effort put into the presidency would trickle down to senate, gubernatorial, and state races. This faliled.

Trump putting support behind Morrissey doesnt have as much power as you think. As another poster noted:

This point here is overrated. Look at what happened in PA-18. That district was more pro-Trump than the national average. In fact, IIRC, Trump was slightly above water. And it also had a high PVI in favor of the GOP. Trump campaigned a couple of times for Saccone and it still wasn't enough. In Michigan, Obama's approval rating on election day was 54-45. His approval in WI was 52-47. His approval was 51-48 in PA. This didn't stop Trump from edging out in all of those states that I listed above. Not sure if him campaigning more often would make such a difference.

WV is the same scenario, a super Trump area that had Dem roots. Trump put everything there, and lost and according to polling, it looks like Manchin is going to win as well. Or look at Alabama, same thing. Trump has some influence, just like Obama, but its extremely limited.

[Nathan Towne]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin.I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

This point here is overrated. Look at what happened in PA-18. That district was more pro-Trump than the national average. In fact, IIRC, Trump was slightly above water. And it also had a high PVI in favor of the GOP. Trump campaigned a couple of times for Saccone and it still wasn't enough. In Michigan, Obama's approval rating on election day was 54-45. His approval in WI was 52-47. His approval was 51-48 in PA. This didn't stop Trump from edging out in all of those states that I listed above. Not sure if him campaigning more often would make such a difference.

I don't accept these arguments. That was a special election for a seat in the House, which is not nearly as consequential as it was for the Senate seat in Alabama, so turnout could play quite a significant role. In Alabama, Jones won by a very narrow margin over Roy Moore who was one of the worst candidates ever fielded in the history of the Republic. His record did not become clear until after the primary and thusly the party was stuck with him. These upcoming elections will be quite different. Turnout will be in line with mid-term averages, or higher, so that will not be a problem in the way than it has been in a number of these House Special elections.

[tmthforu94]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

[KingSweden]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I doubt he loses by quite that much, but yes, he’s not a good candidate

[Nathan Towne]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I am not sure how good a candidate he is yet. It is going to be a tough victory for him as West Virginia is a generally "pro-labour" State with the backlash against the Democratic party stemming from other issues; issues which Joe Manchin portrays himself as being strong on, i.e. gun rights, coal and mining e.t.c. It is certainly possible though and if Trump vocally advocates for the election of Morrissey, that will make it more difficult for Manchin to win.

[ON Progressive]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I am not sure how good a candidate he is yet. It is going to be a tough victory for him as West Virginia is a generally "pro-labour" State with the backlash against the Democratic party stemming from other issues; issues which Joe Manchin portrays himself as being strong on, i.e. gun rights, coal and mining e.t.c. It is certainly possible though and if Trump vocally advocates for the election of Morrissey, that will make it more difficult for Manchin to win.

He’s a bad candidate. The guy is incredibly easy to paint as a carpetbagger since he once ran for Congress in New Jersey. Carpetbagging in general is bad, but carpetbagging across state lines is worse.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I am not sure how good a candidate he is yet. It is going to be a tough victory for him as West Virginia is a generally "pro-labour" State with the backlash against the Democratic party stemming from other issues; issues which Joe Manchin portrays himself as being strong on, i.e. gun rights, coal and mining e.t.c. It is certainly possible though and if Trump vocally advocates for the election of Morrissey, that will make it more difficult for Manchin to win.

He’s a bad candidate. The guy is incredibly easy to paint as a carpetbagger since he once ran for Congress in New Jersey. Carpetbagging in general is bad, but carpetbagging across state lines is worse.

Especially if they're from a "coastal elitist" state like mine.

[😥]

Likely D

Manchin wins 59-38