WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[fluffypanther19]

Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

If Manchin loses to Blankenship, of all people, he was going to lose to Morrisey or Jenkins anyway.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

Ah, another National PVI lover. Alabama is inelastic, WV is super elastic, BIG difference.

[RogueBeaver]

WV apparently has a sore loser law.

THE “SORE LOSER” or “SOUR GRAPES” LAW (W. Va. Code §§ 3-5-7(d)(6) and 3-5-23)
Candidates affiliated with a recognized political party who run for election in a primary election
and who lose the nomination cannot change her or his voter registration to a minor party
organization/unaffiliated candidate to take advantage of the later filing deadlines and have their
name on the subsequent general election ballot.

[LimoLiberal]

WE LOVE DON! WE LOVE DON! WE LOVE DON!


https://www.axios.com/don-blankenship-west-virginia-republican-senate-mitch-mcconnell-9b19fa57-0caa-48c4-9d79-f6e9921eac2a.html?utm_source=sidebar

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[RogueBeaver]

Anyway, GOP's probably gonna nominate someone with blood on their hands.

[Pollster]

Who would win if it ends up being Swearengin vs. Blankenship?

[DINGO Joe]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose. 

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

[Yellowhammer]

Who would win if it ends up being Swearengin vs. Blankenship?

Almost certainly Blankenship.

[junior chįmp]

Praying for Blakenship

[Maxwell]

I'd be very sad if our politics continues to devolve to where people like Blankenship are who represent one very significant chunk of our politics. I think that would outweigh my immediate feelings over the worlds most mediocre Senator who is obviously very tired of being a Senator having a better shot of being a whiny baby for 6 more years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who would win if it ends up being Swearengin vs. Blankenship?

Blankenship by teens.

[YE]

Who would win if it ends up being Swearengin vs. Blankenship?

Swearengin could if the DSCC made a play for it but they'd likely triage it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

[Skill and Chance]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

[MAINEiac4434]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

Yeah, registered Republicans make up only 32% of the the registered voters. Democrats make up 43%. Still.

This page is interesting as hell: it has the party registration totals of the state and of each county going back to July 2016. At that point, Democrats made up 46% of registered voters, and Republicans 30%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

IDK, but it is sort of low. Not too important when it is just GOP ballots counting though for the primary, independents will be a wild card though.

[ON Progressive]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

Some math I did quickly shows WV-03 has just under 27% of statewide registered Rs. WV-03 has 105,896 registered Republicans and there are 392,804 statewide.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The WV-03 turnout is looking great for Ojeda and terrible for Jenkins.

[DINGO Joe]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

The overall percentage is relevant because it does mean that Jenkins has a weak base to begin with and they aren't turning out in numbers to compensate for that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

The overall percentage is relevant because it does mean that Jenkins has a weak base to begin with and they aren't turning out in numbers to compensate for that.

[Skill and Chance]

The WV-03 turnout is looking great for Ojeda and terrible for Jenkins.

Well, the hardest Dem swings in the specials so far have been in culturally Trumpy places with large Democratic registration/primary voting advantages, so this bears watching.

[CatoMinor]

If Blankenship runs as an independent and Manchin somehow ends up winning with less than 50% of the vote, it would be pretty hilarious.

[Skill and Chance]

If Blankenship runs as an independent and Manchin somehow ends up winning with less than 50% of the vote, it would be pretty hilarious.

I don't think he can do that in WV with the sore loser law. Perhaps a write-in campaign?

[Sestak]

If Blankenship runs as an independent and Manchin somehow ends up winning with less than 50% of the vote, it would be pretty hilarious.

It would be even more hilarious if a Blankenship write-in or indy run (if legal) somehow got Swearengin elected to the Senate.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/993443781281271808