WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ojeda would not lose in a landslide, WVa is a populouus state with consevative roots.  He is a decorated Veteran that will make this race a tilt D state. 

Nick Rahill or Carte Goodwin or Natalie Tennant will lose in a landslide

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

yeah, exactly. They either lose the senate seat two years earlier(with someone else in the seat who is not Joe Manchin, such as Ojeda), or they deal with Manchin for the 4 years.

Really, if the Ds have the senate by, say, 52-48, it would be a smarter move for Manchin to run for governor and then appoint someone for the two years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2024, this seat is gone, anyways, at least Ojeda can protect it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Manchin has flirted with leaving the Senate to be Governor again at least a few times IIRC. I doubt he does it.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

yeah, exactly. They either lose the senate seat two years earlier(with someone else in the seat who is not Joe Manchin, such as Ojeda), or they deal with Manchin for the 4 years.

Really, if the Ds have the senate by, say, 52-48, it would be a smarter move for Manchin to run for governor and then appoint someone for the two years.

Democrats will have a difficult time taking the Senate back in 2020. And 2018 should have proved that West Virginia is moving completely out of reach for the Democrats. Manchin would be well-advised to keep to his Senate seat.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

yeah, exactly. They either lose the senate seat two years earlier(with someone else in the seat who is not Joe Manchin, such as Ojeda), or they deal with Manchin for the 4 years.

Really, if the Ds have the senate by, say, 52-48, it would be a smarter move for Manchin to run for governor and then appoint someone for the two years.

Democrats will have a difficult time taking the Senate back in 2020. And 2018 should have proved that West Virginia is moving completely out of reach for the Democrats. Manchin would be well-advised to keep to his Senate seat.

Depends. The Ds have a great shot at taking the senate, as it lies in taking 4 rather tossup/lean D seats(CO, ME, AZ, and NC), all of which either lie in D territory(CO, ME), or feature a rather unpopular or lukewarm incumbent(all of them). If the Ds take the senate, the question is more the margin of the senate, as having a majority such as 52-48 would make the D senate rather secure going into 2022, meaning the loss of a senate seat wont mean that much.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

If Trump is President, Democrats *might* be able to win it. But yeah, even if Bernie is President it's probably toast.

[AtorBoltox]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

If Trump is President, Democrats *might* be able to win it. But yeah, even if Bernie is President it's probably toast.

Why are you saying 'even' Bernie as if he's somehow super popular in WV?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

If Trump is President, Democrats *might* be able to win it. But yeah, even if Bernie is President it's probably toast.

Why are you saying 'even' Bernie as if he's somehow super popular in WV?

Least unpopular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

[Flyersfan232]

In 2024, this seat is gone, anyways, at least Ojeda can protect it.

and even that is a big if consideringhe failed to win a house seat.

[Dr. MB]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

He'll run for president in 2024, not senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just to trigger icespear, jk he is right, but still.

Straight outta the Grundy VA coal mines, they aint dead yet!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

He'll run for president in 2024, not senate.

If the Senate is vacated and Dems win in 2020, Richard Ojeda will run for Sen

[Sir Mohamed]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

He'll run for president in 2024, not senate.

If the Senate is vacated and Dems win in 2020, Richard Ojeda will run for Sen

... and lose big league.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

He'll run for president in 2024, not senate.

If the Senate is vacated and Dems win in 2020, Richard Ojeda will run for Sen

... and lose big league.

They also said Beshear, Hood would lose. They are in contention. Thats why we have this thread about WWC voters

We would only know how well Ojeda will do, if only Manchin wins the gov mansion. Polling will be done. Ojeda is a Vet

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

He'll run for president in 2024, not senate.

If the Senate is vacated and Dems win in 2020, Richard Ojeda will run for Sen

... and lose big league.

They also said Beshear, Hood would lose. They are in contention. Thats why we have this thread about WWC voters

We would only know how well Ojeda will do, if only Manchin wins the gov mansion. Polling will be done. Ojeda is a Vet

Ojeda was doing well until Trump came in and said "don't vote for ojeda because he doesn't support me" and he lost bad. I assume the same would happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Manchin wins and there is a Dem prez Castro or Harris, Ojeda wont have to support Trump. Special election will be in sometime early 2021.

[BlueDogs2020]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

I agree, the only reason he lost was that Trump campaigned for his opponent, and Trump is ridiculously popular in WV-3. Ojeda would actually have a shot in a statewide race if Trump wasn´t president, even under a Dem president if they aren´t super unpopular in WV.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

I agree, the only reason he lost was that Trump campaigned for his opponent, and Trump is ridiculously popular in WV-3. Ojeda would actually have a shot in a statewide race if Trump wasn´t president, even under a Dem president if they aren´t super unpopular in WV.

ehhh, if the R's send Trump in to support the R, I think the R would win. If not, then maybe ojeda could win.

[Shadows]

Ojeda got a 50 point Trump district to like a 10 point odd loss. He gained close to 40 points with Trump campaigning hard against him.

I still think Machin should hold on for a while now. Ojeda should run again in WV03.

[SnowLabrador]

If Manchin runs for governor again, I will donate to Jim Justice. I never thought I'd say that, but it's true. If he wins, we lose the seat four years early.

[Vega]

If Manchin runs for governor again, I will donate to Jim Justice. I never thought I'd say that, but it's true. If he wins, we lose the seat four years early.

Don't think Jim Justice will need your $10.

[SnowLabrador]

Good point. He is the richest person in West Virginia last I checked.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin back in NW WV a few months back. This is literally probably what a Trump 2016 Manchin 2018 voter looks like. Btw this is Wood County (Parkersburg) that went 71-23 Trump to 49-47 Manchin.