Monkey Cage: Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

[Virginiá]

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/08/why-did-trump-win-more-whites-and-fewer-blacks-than-normal-actually-voted/?utm_term=.75208911fb75

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Black turnout did fall sharply, something I really didn't think would happen on this scale, but at the same time, it didn't quite return to 2004 levels either. However, these turnout rates might be something for Democratic presidential candidates to keep in mind in 2020. They will need to convince these missing voters that their ticket will be there for them and will effectively represent their interests.

And as the article shows, Clinton indeed would have would had 2012 level turnout been identical to 2012:

[mencken]

Interesting - and almost certainly more accurate than the exit polls.

[henster]

She should have picked a black VP and she would probably be President. Anthony Foxx, Deval Patrick, Cory Booker all could have energized blacks in addition to Obama.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think it's a combination of the first black president not being on the ticket and to a lesser extent younger millennial black voters who weren't excited about Hillary (just like white millennials) and didn't come out and vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's beyond disheartening.

[OneJ]

Very intriguing data. It's definitely something to look into.

[Beet]

Why not stop appealing to people's votes by the color of their skin and put forth policy ideas that people actually want, and campaign on those?

[Technocracy Timmy]

This reminds me of that Chris Rock joke from SNL. You're replacing a young charismatic black guy with a boring 70 year old white lady. That's like the Knicks replacing Patrick Ewing with Neil Patrick Harris.

[JA]

To me, this shows a couple interesting issues.

1. Democrats in 2016 were very dependent on maintaining what were historically exceptionally high levels of African-American voter turnout for their candidate. This did not materialize and, consequently, it cost them Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats cannot be so heavily dependent on such high turnout levels among African Americans in subsequent elections, nor can they dismiss the critical role turnout among this community will play in getting a Democrat elected.

2. There was not some 'White backlash' that manifested itself in high White voter turnout in Rust Belt states. White voter turnout was +0.1% in Indiana, -2.6% in Michigan, -1.3% in Ohio, and -1.6% in Wisconsin. While it was +4.4% in Illinois, the state both swung and trended Democratic; White turnout in Pennsylvania was +5.2%, but the state is largely split between its western Rust Belt section and eastern Philadelphia metro. Looking at New Jersey, the state perhaps most similar to eastern Pennsylvania, the White vote was +7.2%, whereas in Ohio, the state most similar to western Pennsylvania, it was -1.3%.

As I suspected, Clinton lost due to a lack of voter enthusiasm among millennials, African Americans, and lower-income White voters in the Rust Belt. The election was not so much a Trump win as a Clinton loss.

[Santander]

She should have picked a black VP and she would probably be President. Anthony Foxx, Deval Patrick, Cory Booker all could have energized blacks in addition to Obama.

They would've energized virtue-signalling whites.

[RINO Tom]

She should have picked a black VP and she would probably be President. Anthony Foxx, Deval Patrick, Cory Booker all could have energized blacks in addition to Obama.

They would've energized virtue-signalling whites.

Maybe you'll proudly declare that a chunk of conservative voters would have turned out to vote against a Black person on the ticket, but that doesn't make it true.

[Santander]

She should have picked a black VP and she would probably be President. Anthony Foxx, Deval Patrick, Cory Booker all could have energized blacks in addition to Obama.

They would've energized virtue-signalling whites.

Maybe you'll proudly declare that a chunk of conservative voters would have turned out to vote against a Black person on the ticket, but that doesn't make it true.

No, but I would say that a significant chunk of voters in general like it when their "black friend" is in the spotlight but would not be entirely comfortable if their daughter was dating a black guy.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

do not know why the conversation is exclusively about enthusiasm here when it's an easily verifiable fact that hundreds of thousands of black people were prevented from voting

[Adam Griffin]

A new article from WaPo using the Census-collected data.

Look. At. Wisconsin. Black WI voters went from being the highest turnout group in 2012 of any swing state to turning out like Latinos. Maybe sample sizes/margins of error are playing a role here (like with Latinos in MI), but if not...

[JerryArkansas]

I see most of the people here are ignoring the fact that the states with the largest drop in turnout among African Americans also had new voter ID laws, cuts to early voting, and voting locations.  But lets just blame it on the fact that no black person was on the ballot and them not caring.  That is so much better an explanation.

[mieastwick]

I see most of the people here are ignoring the fact that the states with the largest drop in turnout among African Americans also had new voter ID laws, cuts to early voting, and voting locations.  But lets just blame it on the fact that no black person was on the ballot and them not caring.  That is so much better an explanation.

It is a better explanation. Michigan did not have any new voter ID laws between 2012 and 2016 and does not have early voting, and I it had the largest drop in Black voter participation in the country. Every single state (except apparently Delaware) had a drop in Black voter participation. Why would Blacks be more excited about Hillary than Obama, anyway? That makes no sense except to the most dedicated of Hillary hacks.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I would suggest that in Florida, much of the change is due to demographics.  During the worst of the Housing bubble, FL actually had more folks moving out of FL than moving into FL.  This trend stopped around 2012, and, once again, FL is gaining population as it once was.  The outmigration from FL was mainly a white outmigration.  It is quite possible that Trump's showing in 2016 is a reflection that FL has shifted from toss-up to a very, very slight Lean R in Presidential politics. 

[Nyvin]

I see most of the people here are ignoring the fact that the states with the largest drop in turnout among African Americans also had new voter ID laws, cuts to early voting, and voting locations.  But lets just blame it on the fact that no black person was on the ballot and them not caring.  That is so much better an explanation.

It is a better explanation. Michigan did not have any new voter ID laws between 2012 and 2016 and does not have early voting, and I it had the largest drop in Black voter participation in the country. Every single state (except apparently Delaware) had a drop in Black voter participation. Why would Blacks be more excited about Hillary than Obama, anyway? That makes no sense except to the most dedicated of Hillary hacks.

Michigan didn't have the largest decrease in black voters from 2012 to 2016.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I see most of the people here are ignoring the fact that the states with the largest drop in turnout among African Americans also had new voter ID laws, cuts to early voting, and voting locations.  But lets just blame it on the fact that no black person was on the ballot and them not caring.  That is so much better an explanation.

Another likely factor here is that a lot of millennial black voters didn't show up like they did in 2012 for the same reason white millennials didn't: they didn't like Hillary as much as Obama.

This would also make sense given that the white population skews older and Trumps largest base of support came from white baby boomers. The increase in older and middle aged white people voting would've been enough to make up for white millennials who didn't whereas the same was likely not the case with black voters since they skew younger compared to whites.

[The_Doctor]

So Georgia is already a swing state at 2012 turnout levels. Very interesting -- I see Texas would've been a 8% loss not 9%.