New SC/GA governor's race polls..

[Sam Spade]

Two other polls spotted today:

The SC governor's race one was conducted by Rasmussen Reports.  July 27, 2005, 1,000 likely voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/SC%20Governor%20August%204.htm

The Georgia governor's race (plus other things) one was conducted by Strategic Vision.  July 31-August 2, 2005, 800 registered voters.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_0804.htm

I may give some commentary later.  I may not.  We'll see. 

[AuH2O]

How about this: Sanford is unbeatable, and Perdue is a definite favorite. No surprises.

[Q]

Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, so their saying Perdue 51 to Cox 45 indicates a pure toss-up.

Interesting that the favorable/unfavorable question regarding Ralph Reed was asked of Republicans only, and still he gets only a 54-36 fav/unfav.

Bush's approval rating of 52% in GA is surprisingly low, as is his 45-42 approve/disapprove on Social Security, but otherwise, no surprises in GA.

[AuH2O]

Actually SV is not a Republican firm.

[Q]

Actually SV is not a Republican firm.

They poll only for Republican clients.

Ask anyone in Georgia political circles, and they will tell you that Strategic Vision is not nonpartisan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Governor's race isn't the interesting on in SC.  Barring the unexpected, about all the Dems can hope to do is put sand in the gears of a possible rin in '08 for the Presidency by Sanford.  Nor are the State House of Representative races.  Barring a seismic and unforseen shift, the Republicans will easily retain control of the House (The State Senate is not up for election in 2006.)  No, the interesting race will be the race for Lt. Gov.  The incumbent, Bauer faces both credible primary opposition and general election opposition and he has shown a decided a knack for making a fool of himself.  (His latest debacle involved him using his influence to help him get a better than anybody else got deal concerning the value of some property of his that was condemned as part of a road widening project.)  I sincerely hope the idiot is knocked off, tho I don't really care who does the knocking at this point, be it Republican or Democrat.

[A18]

If Sanford runs, he has my vote. It probably means we lose Florida, though.

[© tweed]

If Sanford runs, he has my vote. It probably means we lose Florida, though.

You aren't losing Florida unless Castro dies naturally.  Otherwise it's yours.

Stategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, but Vorlon felt is was accurate enough to trust during 2004.  He knows more about what to trust than any of us, so I think numbers can be presumed accurate.

[A18]

Sanford opposes the Cuban embargo.

[Q]

Stategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, but Vorlon felt is was accurate enough to trust during 2004.  He knows more about what to trust than any of us, so I think numbers can be presumed accurate.

They may be good nationally, but in statewide races Georgia, their numbers just can't be taken at face value.

Strategic Vision's CEO, David E. Johnson,  was named Honorary Chairman for the National Republican Congressional Committee's Business Advisory Council.

I read their poll information all the time, and it's frequently quoted in newspapers here, but I've noticed a slight GOP bias in Strategic Vision's polling over the many GA races they've covered.  Conservative columnists in local newspapers often cite it as a "Republican polling firm."

Similarly, any WSB-TV-Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by Gallup seems to have a lean in the other direction in GA races.

To get the best idea of the GA political scene, we at the campaign I worked for would take the average of the AJC and the Strategic Vision polls.

[Sam Spade]

Stategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, but Vorlon felt is was accurate enough to trust during 2004.  He knows more about what to trust than any of us, so I think numbers can be presumed accurate.

They may be good nationally, but in statewide races Georgia, their numbers just can't be taken at face value.

Strategic Vision's CEO, David E. Johnson,  was named Honorary Chairman for the National Republican Congressional Committee's Business Advisory Council.

I read their poll information all the time, and it's frequently quoted in newspapers here, but I've noticed a slight GOP bias in Strategic Vision's polling over the many GA races they've covered.  Conservative columnists in local newspapers often cite it as a "Republican polling firm."

Similarly, any WSB-TV-Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by Gallup seems to have a lean in the other direction in GA races.

To get the best idea of the GA political scene, we at the campaign I worked for would take the average of the AJC and the Strategic Vision polls.

Tweed mirrors what I have heard and read and talked about and Lord knows, Alcon, Vorlon and I have talked continuously about Strategic Vision polls like this one last year constantly.   

It looks like an Independent poll not done for a client, yet is done by a company that is known for doing polls for Republican clients pretty much exclusively. 

None of us poll-onlookers could make heads or tails of these things last year and therefore most election sites labeled it (R).  However, in the final result, their polls were not far off from actuality, leaning slightly GOP in the Midwest.

For a little more info, I'll flag both Alcon and Vorlon on this one to get their opinions and see if they mesh with mine.

However, in Georgia statewide polling with polls looking like this one, they did very well in 2004, if anything leaning slightly Democrat but well within MOE as compared to results.  Compared to the other two major pollsters who polled Georgia (Zogby and SUSA), they did better than both.

Last Strategic Vision poll in 2004:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia.htm

Last SV poll (10/31)
President:
Bush 55%
Kerry 41%
Other 1%
Undecided 3%

Actual: (11/2)
President:
Bush 58%
Kerry 41%
Other 1%

Last SV poll (10/31)
Senate:
Isakson 55%
Majette 40%
Buckley 1%
Undecided 4%

Actual: (11/2)
Isakson 58%
Majette 40%
Buckley 2%

Time will tell whether they will be as accurate in Georgia with these polls as they were in 2004, or what the real purpose of these polls are, but I take them at face value since they do meet all the requirements necessary of a legitimate poll (partisan or not).

And there you have it.

[True Democrat]

Actual: (11/2)
President:
Bush 58%
Kerry 41%
Other 1%

Wow!!! The Democrats really did have voter fraud!!!

[AuH2O]

If the results are nonpartisan, the poll is nonpartisan. I don't care how they operate their business-- ultimately their goal is to make money.

SV not only did well overall, their polls were consistently reasonable... very, very few outliers.

On Sanford: he should win rather easily, though I'm not sure how his Presidential prospects will be affected either way. In a hard GOP state, a big win is expected. His real opponent has been the GOP legislature anyway.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd be surprised if Sanford wasn't re-elected in South Carolina; howver, Cox has a good chance of defeating Perdue and I look forward to Georgia coming home gubnatorially , at least)

Dave

[© tweed]

Sanford opposes the Cuban embargo.

...a view he would likely tune down if running for president.  He's a Governor, so he can do these things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

51/45 this far out doesn't mean a great deal; other than it's a competative race.

[Democratic Hawk]

51/45 this far out doesn't mean a great deal; other than it's a competative race.

Better it be competitive than a slam-dunk for Perdue

Dave

[tarheel-leftist85]

I don't think either of these races will end up being close.  These states love their profligate behaviors:  From families (and their McMansions one month from foreclosure) to government (where more money is spent on horse-and-buggy shenanigans than education).  "Having your cake and eating it too" is the predominant philosophy in these two states that have adandoned their populist roots.
BTW, the numbers back me up:
"USA Today Snapshots:  States with the most late bill-payers"
% of ppl. who were late on a credit card or loan payment at least once in the past six months:
Texas--32.0%
South Carolina--30.6%
Alabama--30.4%
Louisiana--30.3%
New Mexico--29.5%
Mississippi--27.8%

[Sam Spade]

51/45 this far out doesn't mean a great deal; other than it's a competative race.

Quite correct.

[Moooooo]

Any chance Ralph Reed will lose the Lt. Gov. race?  We need to stop that guy before he gets a start.  Some people are already touting him as a future Presidential candidate.

[Q]

Any chance Ralph Reed will lose the Lt. Gov. race?  We need to stop that guy before he gets a start.  Some people are already touting him as a future Presidential candidate.

I'm thinking no.  In general, Georgia seems very lukewarm (see his 54-36 favorable/unfavorable among Republicans) about him, but I just don't see Cagle upsetting him in the primary.  And then the Dems have no one good running (at this point).  The candidate pools are weak.

To sum it up, I think Reed will win by default.

[AuH2O]

Any chance Ralph Reed will lose the Lt. Gov. race?  We need to stop that guy before he gets a start.  Some people are already touting him as a future Presidential candidate.

As I've said, it's going to take something a lot more substantial than Casey Cagle to stop Ralph Reed. He basically designed the modern Republican Party and is running at its very heart. Talk about structural advantage.

[jokerman]

Did ya'll see the Democratic Primary results with Gore getting second with 15% of the vote?  Must be the black vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any chance Ralph Reed will lose the Lt. Gov. race?  We need to stop that guy before he gets a start.  Some people are already touting him as a future Presidential candidate.

that's fine by me since he could never win nationwide.

[Sam Spade]

I don't really feel like this is deserving of a new thread, but Strategic Vision came out with another poll today on Georgia's governor race and other approval ratings:

http://strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_0928.htm

Typical caveats apply.  Most of this is pretty much MOE stuff compared to the last poll, though Perdue has increased his advantage slightly.

Previous iterations are in parentheses.

Governor
(against Cox)
Perdue 53% (51%)
Cox 41% (45%)

(against Taylor)
Perdue 54% (52%)
Taylor 38% (40%)

Democrat Primary
Cox 47% (48%)
Taylor 34% (36%)