Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,094
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: May 12, 2017, 04:31:09 AM » |
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If it's a 10-point PV win against a GOP incumbent/Trump, then that likely means GA, AZ & even TX are all going Democratic, albeit narrowly. There likely would have needed to be a huge revolt in the Sunbelt/South and also in the bluer areas of the NE where Dems lost ground.
All of the other swing states - with the exception of IA & OH - would likely be firmly in the Democratic column, with none of them being called more than an hour after the polls closed. I could see the Midwest and Rust Belt holding out somewhat in this situation, only swinging by maybe half as much as the nation as a whole, which would leave Trump winning IA & OH while losing MI/WI/PA by mid-single digits.
I think it'd be a long night in IA/OH, as well as maybe in a couple of western states like MT. Maybe it even takes a few days to see who won AK.
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