So what happened in Philadelphia and its suburbs?

[heatcharger]

I was just gazing at the township map of PA on Atlas and thought the swing map was pretty interesting looking:



The city of Philly itself went from 85-14 Obama to 82-15 Clinton. Not a huge swing, but a significant loss in net Democratic votes which obviously mattered a whole lot. What's more interesting is the swings North and South of Philly along the Delaware River, where 10-15 point swings happened in a large number of townships.

I'm not really too familiar with the demographics of the area, so why did this happen simultaneously as Philly's suburbs swung hard to Clinton? Irish and Italian people prone to voting for Trump? Urban decay? College whites moving further out? Gentrification?

[Hydera]

http://www.justicemap.org/index.php?gsLayer=income&gfLon=-74.8922645&gfLat=39.99818013&giZoom=8&


White working class areas to the west and east of philly swung to trump. While the higher income more educated burbs swung to Hillary.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary did better in rich suburbs and worse with rural and urban poor areas.

[hopper]

I think in the suburbs Trump lost some Non-Hispanic White Votes due to his rhetoric about Mexicans. Suburban Non-Hispanic Whites that live in the Suburbs think that rhetoric is extreme. At the same time Suburban Non-Hispanic Whites aren't SWJ's either.

[SingingAnalyst]

A similar thing happened in Detroit. Detroit went from 97.5-2.1 Obama to 94.9-3.1 Clinton. Considering that Trump won MI by just 10K votes, that is a significant shift.

As i mentioned elsewhere, many of Detroit's wealthier, better educated Oakland County suburbs moved toward Clinton.

[The Govanah Jake]

Clinton doing better with College Educated Whites and Trumps rhetoric scaring off Moderates and Moderate Republican= Trump does worse in most suburbs across the nation.

[RINO Tom]

A similar thing happened in Detroit. Detroit went from 97.5-2.1 Obama to 94.9-3.1 Clinton. Considering that Trump won MI by just 10K votes, that is a significant shift.

As i mentioned elsewhere, many of Detroit's wealthier, better educated Oakland County suburbs moved toward Clinton.

I think it was more "away from Trump/away from non-Romney," and how many of them actually flipped?  I think people are really underestimating how important it was to Trump's victory to hold onto as many educated and wealthy Republicans that he did (in addition to the new supporters, of course).  If he had anywhere near the "collapse" among wealthy and educated White voters - two groups that he literally won, yet we're acting like they're a Democratic group now - he would have lost the election.

[Orser67]

The blue areas of SEPA in the township map are either:
a)working class inner suburbs of Bucks and Delaware counties,
b)more rural areas,
c)Philadelphia

Clinton actually improved quite a bit on Obama in Chester and Montgomery counties, and basically treaded water in Bucks and Delco. Looking at that township map, it's clear that she won votes in upscale areas with lots of college-educated whites, and lost voters in working class areas with lots of non-college whites.

Unlike e.g. Milwaukee, Philadelphia saw an increase in the total number of votes between 2012 and 2016 (from 690k to 707k), but Clinton lost about 4k votes compared to Obama, while Trump gained 12k votes compared to Romney. My understanding is that Trump did better among non-college whites in South Philly and the more suburban parts of Philadelphia, especially in the Northeast (which, incidentally, has a large Russian community). Politically, the Northeast is sort of the Staten Island of Philadelphia.

[VPH]

There are some fascinating pockets of Philly that are really Trumpy.

[Senator-elect Spark]

There are some fascinating pockets of Philly that are really Trumpy.

Yeah. My ward went for Trump narrowly.

[538Electoral]

Some loved Trump due to his appeal to their issues, Most hated Trump due to his rhetoric and just being a Republican. This area was not why Trump won the state. Trump won the state last time because he ran up the margins in the central part of the state and also did well in Erie and Luzerne counties and more counties that flipped.

[SingingAnalyst]

Probably the same thing that happened in Detroit and its suburbs.

Detroit (which is more than 80% Black) proper swung very slightly to Trump, going from 97.5-2.1 Obama to 95.3-3.1 Clinton. Working-class Macomb County swung to Trump, as did working-class Wayne County and the working-class communities of Oakland County. The wealthier, more liberal communities (particularly along the Woodward corridor) as well as university areas (Washtenaw County) swung strongly to Clinton.

[Orser67]

This area was not why Trump won the state. Trump won the state last time because he ran up the margins in the central part of the state and also did well in Erie and Luzerne counties and more counties that flipped.

Yeah, in the Philadelphia area, the Democratic margin of victory increased by about 50k votes compared to 2012, mostly due to gains in Chester and Montgomery counties. In almost every other county in the state, the Republican margin of victory increased or the Democratic margin of victory decreased (or the county flipped D to R); the only two exceptions were Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and Centre County (Penn State).