2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED)

[Adam Griffin]

I wouldn't imagine there would be, seeing as how each month's total on my chart is the cycle-to-date average. For it to be apples-to-apples, you'd need to apply the same methodology to Trump's approval/disapproval ratings. However, I doubt even then that there'd be much of a correlation, as it would just smooth out the trend-lines.

[UncleSam]

Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against?

[smoltchanov]

Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against?

64% Trump in 2016

[GeorgiaModerate]

Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against?

Trump won by 26.

[Adam Griffin]

Cycle-to-date state legislative swing has crossed the 11-point mark with the results of the April 10 special elections.

[Adam Griffin]

I've added all upcoming special elections (with their relevant past data) for the next 30 days: there are 21 in total, with at least 7 of them appearing to be substantially competitive!

Competitive Specials in the Next 30 Days:
Congr   AZ   8   -   4/24/18
House   NY   10   -   4/24/18
House   NY   107   -   4/24/18
House   NY   142   -   4/24/18
House   FL   114   -   5/1/18
House   PA   48   -   5/15/18
House   PA   178   -   5/15/18

Color denotes which party held seat prior to vacancy

[Blackacre]

Unsure if this goes here, but there's a special election for NY State Senate that could determine the control of everything in NY state government. And it's tomorrow. And the district includes my college, Sarah Lawrence (though I'm registered in Somers so I cant vote in it)

more info: https://www.vox.com/2018/4/23/17259112/new-york-special-election-shelley-mayer-julie-killian-simcha-felder

[Adam Griffin]

Unsure if this goes here, but there's a special election for NY State Senate that could determine the control of everything in NY state government. And it's tomorrow. And the district includes my college, Sarah Lawrence (though I'm registered in Somers so I cant vote in it)

more info: https://www.vox.com/2018/4/23/17259112/new-york-special-election-shelley-mayer-julie-killian-simcha-felder

Yep: there are 11 state legislative races today (all in NY):

Congressional:
 

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
House	AZ	8	4/24/17		R+37	R+21

State Legislative
 

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
Senate	NY	32	4/24/18		D+94	D+87
Senate	NY	37	4/24/18		D+11	D+22
House	NY	5	4/24/18		R+29	R+24
House	NY	10	4/24/18		R+18	D+8
House	NY	17	4/24/18		R+25	R+19
House	NY	39	4/24/18		N/A	D+67
House	NY	74	4/24/18		D+67	D+74
House	NY	80	4/24/18		D+74	D+66
House	NY	102	4/24/18		N/A	R+23
House	NY	107	4/24/18		N/A	R+4
House	NY	142	4/24/18		N/A	R+6

[Adam Griffin]

After tonight's specials:

Avg congressional swing, cycle-to-date: D+17.3
Avg state legislative swing, cycle-to-date: D+10.6

[Adam Griffin]

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

[Adam Griffin]

* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989967982163038208

[Bidenworth2020]

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

how do I find these results?

[Adam Griffin]

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

how do I find these results?

For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated.

For AL, this file has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized.

I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too.

[Bidenworth2020]

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

how do I find these results?

For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated.

For AL, this file has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized.

I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too.

So you just need numbers..., not a map?

[Adam Griffin]

Y

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

how do I find these results?

For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated.

For AL, this file has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized.

I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too.

So you just need numbers..., not a map?

Yeah, just the approximate margin for the 2016 presidential race (rounded to the nearest whole number).

[Bidenworth2020]

Y

On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.

AL-SD 26      
AL-HD 4      
AR-SD 16      
AR-SD 29         
AR-HD 83

how do I find these results?

For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated.

For AL, this file has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized.

I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too.

So you just need numbers..., not a map?

Yeah, just the approximate margin for the 2016 presidential race (rounded to the nearest whole number).

alright, ill see what i can do.

[Adam Griffin]

^ Thanks!

[Young Conservative]

http://www.politicspa.com/parties-trade-state-house-special-election-wins/87547/


Not sure if anyone shared this information.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections

This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap.

Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic.  Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races.

[Skill and Chance]

* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections

This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap.

Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic.  Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races.

The Dem swing seems more Midwestern focused to me.  Republicans are holding up surprisingly well in GA and LA (although their unique election system complicates any comparisons) and even MS.  In AL, I would ignore any results that were on the same special election ballot as the Roy Moore race, as that was a very exceptional circumstance.

Perhaps tariff backlash in farm country is a factor here?

[Adam Griffin]

Not a lot going on this summer...updated results from June 4 until now. In those 8 races where comparisons can be made, there was a 6.4 point swing to the Democrats. If you don't include CA's races (which are weird and have significant differences between presidential and down-ballot that'll always be present), then it's a 19.5 point swing (and if you just exclude CA SD32 - for reasons mentioned below - it's a 9.7 point swing). The last margin there I think is the most reasonable and accurate portrayal of current climate.

The only reason I say "excluding CA" is because my formula isn't great for situations like that (i.e. jungle primaries & situations where Democrats win downballot by 5 points and win presidentials by 40). In 2 of the 4 CA summer races, Democrats hit the same number margin-wise as the last Democrat to run for the legislative seat (and in 1 other, exceeded it substantially); it's just that Clinton did phenomenally well - particularly in SD32 - compared to legislative Democrats, which gives 3 of the 4 races a R swing, and in 1 of the races, it was D vs D last time, leaving no margin to balance out Clinton's relative over-performance.

[jamestroll]

* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections

This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap.

Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic.  Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races.

The Dem swing seems more Midwestern focused to me.  Republicans are holding up surprisingly well in GA and LA (although their unique election system complicates any comparisons) and even MS.  In AL, I would ignore any results that were on the same special election ballot as the Roy Moore race, as that was a very exceptional circumstance.

Perhaps tariff backlash in farm country is a factor here?

Trump probably over performed and was like 10 years into the future in the Midwest. The 2018 midterm swings will be hysterical from 2016 presidential voting patterns in the Midwest. There never was a blue wall if you look at results since 2000.

It will also be hysterical when those same states that make the huge Democratic swings in 2018 become the same states that deny Democrats an electoral college majority in 2020. The new red wall. haha

[Adam Griffin]

Just for those who are curious (as of today):

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[Virginiá]

bump (ignore this post)