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Author Topic: Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....  (Read 3284 times)
Jalawest2
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« Reply #50 on: August 03, 2017, 10:18:29 pm »
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AN63093
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« Reply #51 on: August 03, 2017, 10:50:32 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
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« Reply #52 on: August 05, 2017, 02:25:04 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.
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« Reply #53 on: August 05, 2017, 02:27:20 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.
Dems are going to move to the left if anything
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #54 on: August 05, 2017, 02:27:46 pm »
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Modified version.
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AN63093
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« Reply #55 on: August 05, 2017, 06:23:15 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

I think the GOP could certainly become more populist, and in fact, will become more populist, but Christian populist?

I don't see any evidence of this.  Religiosity is significantly declining among all millennials, irrespective of party.  The current youth movement in the GOP is not Jerry Falwell style evangelicalism, but is Alt-Right nationalism, and this movement is not very religious at all, in fact, most of its adherents are probably atheists or at least agnostic.

I also don't see the Dems becoming a libertarian party, but even if they did, why is OR their strongest state, as opposed to any other Western states?  And MA?  RI?  Those are not libertarian states, in fact, quite the opposite.
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« Reply #56 on: August 07, 2017, 06:38:12 pm »
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I don't see CA ever voting Republican again. I don't see AL, inelastic as it is, ever voting Dem again-- or at least not in the next 40-50 years.
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« Reply #57 on: August 10, 2017, 12:08:54 am »
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What I'm curious about is the Democract​ y'all imagine y'all winning Alabama.  Even Bill Clinton got blown out twice.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #58 on: August 10, 2017, 02:49:19 am »
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What I'm curious about is the Democract​ y'all imagine y'all winning Alabama.  Even Bill Clinton got blown out twice.

People focus more on the Plains states staying reliably Republican rather than the South because many of the Plains states have been ancestrally Republican for over a century whereas the South has been more prone to large shifts either direction.

I do think Alabama is a southern state that'll remain GOP for decades to come though. It's certainly worthy to be placed in the same column as states like Idaho and Nebraska in my opinion.
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« Reply #59 on: August 10, 2017, 08:28:09 am »
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What I'm curious about is the Democract​ y'all imagine y'all winning Alabama.  Even Bill Clinton got blown out twice.

People focus more on the Plains states staying reliably Republican rather than the South because many of the Plains states have been ancestrally Republican for over a century whereas the South has been more prone to large shifts either direction.

I do think Alabama is a southern state that'll remain GOP for decades to come though. It's certainly worthy to be placed in the same column as states like Idaho and Nebraska in my opinion.

Yeah, for ME at least, I think TN, AL, OK and possibly even SC (sorry red avatars with a wet dream of THE COAST being in your column) as a different breed of currently solidly GOP Southern than the other states, especially WV, KY and AR (though really only WV stands out).  All either had a strongly Republican area before any realignment and/or shifted to the GOP at all levels much sooner than the more Appalachian ones I named.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #60 on: August 10, 2017, 09:37:42 am »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

I think the GOP could certainly become more populist, and in fact, will become more populist, but Christian populist?

I don't see any evidence of this.  Religiosity is significantly declining among all millennials, irrespective of party.  The current youth movement in the GOP is not Jerry Falwell style evangelicalism, but is Alt-Right nationalism, and this movement is not very religious at all, in fact, most of its adherents are probably atheists or at least agnostic.

I also don't see the Dems becoming a libertarian party, but even if they did, why is OR their strongest state, as opposed to any other Western states?  And MA?  RI?  Those are not libertarian states, in fact, quite the opposite.
Religosity might be rising among younger generations, and that it's not a majority will be why the GOP is a minority coalition.

OR won't be the strongest Dem state, but I'm not sure that the realignment will come in 2020.

MA and RI are liberal, wealthy, and non-religious. They stay fairly Democratic throughout.
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Mike Pence
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« Reply #61 on: August 10, 2017, 10:25:16 am »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

If Lincoln Chafee got the strength that Bernie had against clinton and bernie fell flat on his face with the youth, I'd agree. The entire 2016 election showed that fiscal conservatism is a horrifically bad fit with millennials, which showed in both lowered turnout and weakened support for the perceived as corporate Clinton. Age gaps on Single payer and a host of other issues show that the democrats have far bigger realignment potential from Left Wing Populism than from Libertarianism. Perhaps if Bernie didn't run and Lincoln Chafee or Jim Webb got a weaker version of the support Bernie got, libertarian democrats might have been a possibility. In our timeline, thanks to a combination of good timing and playing on institutional distrust, he has guaranteed that the realignment will come from the fiscal left.

To put it simply:

Dems are going to move to the left if anything
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IceAgeComing 5:26 PM
he's Bob Dole!
its obvious

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Mike Pence
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« Reply #62 on: August 10, 2017, 10:27:18 am »
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To answer the question, only Utah and/or Wyoming will never vote democratic again.
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IceAgeComing 5:26 PM
he's Bob Dole!
its obvious

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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #63 on: August 10, 2017, 01:40:07 pm »
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Democratic: Idaho, Wyoming, Tennessee
Republican: Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #64 on: August 12, 2017, 04:28:49 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

If Lincoln Chafee got the strength that Bernie had against clinton and bernie fell flat on his face with the youth, I'd agree. The entire 2016 election showed that fiscal conservatism is a horrifically bad fit with millennials, which showed in both lowered turnout and weakened support for the perceived as corporate Clinton. Age gaps on Single payer and a host of other issues show that the democrats have far bigger realignment potential from Left Wing Populism than from Libertarianism. Perhaps if Bernie didn't run and Lincoln Chafee or Jim Webb got a weaker version of the support Bernie got, libertarian democrats might have been a possibility. In our timeline, thanks to a combination of good timing and playing on institutional distrust, he has guaranteed that the realignment will come from the fiscal left.

To put it simply:

Dems are going to move to the left if anything
Gary Johnson managed high support among millenials too, and would have gotten far high had he been sober for more than a minute during his campaign.
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Mike Pence
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« Reply #65 on: August 12, 2017, 07:20:43 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

If Lincoln Chafee got the strength that Bernie had against clinton and bernie fell flat on his face with the youth, I'd agree. The entire 2016 election showed that fiscal conservatism is a horrifically bad fit with millennials, which showed in both lowered turnout and weakened support for the perceived as corporate Clinton. Age gaps on Single payer and a host of other issues show that the democrats have far bigger realignment potential from Left Wing Populism than from Libertarianism. Perhaps if Bernie didn't run and Lincoln Chafee or Jim Webb got a weaker version of the support Bernie got, libertarian democrats might have been a possibility. In our timeline, thanks to a combination of good timing and playing on institutional distrust, he has guaranteed that the realignment will come from the fiscal left.

To put it simply:

Dems are going to move to the left if anything
Gary Johnson managed high support among millenials too, and would have gotten far high had he been sober for more than a minute during his campaign.

Two words:weed lmao.

Johnson got two demos: Weed-focused sections of Bernie Sanders group, and (mostly) suburban conservatives who hated Trump. They voted for social liberalism, on the one side, and fiscal conservatism on the other, but not both in the same demographic (Aside from Johnson 2012-2016 voters, who are the libertarian base and a small minority of Johnson 2016 voters).

Not to mention that the only reason he had an opening in the first place were Donald Trump's offensiveness and the fact that Hillary Clinton was thought by many parts of the electorate to be corrupt. The candidates' personal issues gave him a soapbox.
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IceAgeComing 5:26 PM
he's Bob Dole!
its obvious

Join My Timeline: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274512.0

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Jalawest2
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« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2017, 07:57:02 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

If Lincoln Chafee got the strength that Bernie had against clinton and bernie fell flat on his face with the youth, I'd agree. The entire 2016 election showed that fiscal conservatism is a horrifically bad fit with millennials, which showed in both lowered turnout and weakened support for the perceived as corporate Clinton. Age gaps on Single payer and a host of other issues show that the democrats have far bigger realignment potential from Left Wing Populism than from Libertarianism. Perhaps if Bernie didn't run and Lincoln Chafee or Jim Webb got a weaker version of the support Bernie got, libertarian democrats might have been a possibility. In our timeline, thanks to a combination of good timing and playing on institutional distrust, he has guaranteed that the realignment will come from the fiscal left.

To put it simply:

Dems are going to move to the left if anything
Gary Johnson managed high support among millenials too, and would have gotten far high had he been sober for more than a minute during his campaign.

Two words:weed lmao.

Johnson got two demos: Weed-focused sections of Bernie Sanders group, and (mostly) suburban conservatives who hated Trump. They voted for social liberalism, on the one side, and fiscal conservatism on the other, but not both in the same demographic (Aside from Johnson 2012-2016 voters, who are the libertarian base and a small minority of Johnson 2016 voters).

Not to mention that the only reason he had an opening in the first place were Donald Trump's offensiveness and the fact that Hillary Clinton was thought by many parts of the electorate to be corrupt. The candidates' personal issues gave him a soapbox.

Every third major third party candidacy during the current alignment overperforming in the west probably is a good sign, too.
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« Reply #67 on: August 13, 2017, 01:55:44 pm »
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-AL, AK, ID, KS, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, WY

-DC, MN
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« Reply #68 on: August 13, 2017, 02:09:21 pm »
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LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

Democrats are moving to the left and I can't see black people voting Republican in large numbers anytime soon.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #69 on: August 13, 2017, 06:49:16 pm »
Ignore

LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

Democrats are moving to the left and I can't see black people voting Republican in large numbers anytime soon.
Democrat's best candidates are libertarian moderates, and they can win with that.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #70 on: August 18, 2017, 04:28:15 pm »
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For the Dems- New York, California, Illinois, DC

For the GOP- West Virginia, and a lot of those northwestern states like North/South Dakota, Idaho, and Wyoming. Maybe Kansas and Oklahoma too.

I could see New England or the South shifting at some point in the decades down the line, the Rust Belt and Southwest will probably remain competitive for at least the near future so I didn't include any of those either.
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« Reply #71 on: August 21, 2017, 08:57:07 pm »
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My only safe bet is Wyoming, as I just don't see any scenario where it will switch to the Democrats.
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« Reply #72 on: August 21, 2017, 11:27:42 pm »
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DC will never vote Republican

Oklahoma will never vote Democratic.

That's all I got.

Wyoming is an interesting case. It, the Dakotas, Montana, and Idaho all have very Republican populations, but also very small populations. Small enough that any of those states could get the Colorado or Vermont treatment from a large enough population shift. (of the five, Idaho is the most insulated, but not by much)

Oklahoma is reasonably large (comparable size to Connecticut. Not a big state, but not tiny either) and uniformly white, rural, and conservative. This means it is more immune to interstate population shifts than Wyoming and also would never vote for a Democratic Party that even remotely resembles the one that currently exists. It's not Appalachia, nor is it mormon. So Oklahoma is my answer.

If I had to make an additional answer for each party, I'd say California for the Republicans and Arkansas for the Democrats. Cali is huge, diverse, liberal, contains expensive media markets, and is used as a foil for cultural conservatives. Arkansas is not Appalachian nor does it contain a high black population. So of all the heavily GOP Southern states, I'd rate Arkansas as the least likely to support the Democratic Party in my lifetime.
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« Reply #73 on: August 23, 2017, 07:10:39 pm »
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"Put serious money down that a group of states will never vote any other way in a Presidential election in your lifetime"



"Chose a group of states that will have a good chance of never voting any other way in a Presidential election in your lifetime"

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