Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Xing]

Here's my final prediction:

VA-GOV

Northam 50.1%
Gillespie 46.8%

NJ-GOV

Murphy 56.6%
Guadagno 40.7%

[VPH]

VA-GOV: 51 Northam-47 Gillespie-2 Hyra
NJ-GOV: 55 Murphy-40 Guadagno-5 Others
 

[Pericles]

I'm not sure if Gillespie will actually win but that's my gut feeling so I'll submit this prediction.
2017 Virginia gubernatorial election
Ed Gillespie(R)-49.49%
Ralph Northam(D)-48.43%
Gillespie by 1.06%

[Horus]

Gillespie - 48.6
Northam - 48.3
Hyra - 2

Murphy - 57.1
Guadagno - 41

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Northam - 52
Gillespie - 45
Hyra - 3

Fairfax - 53
Vogel - 47

Herring - 54
Adams - 46

Murphy - 61
Gaudagno - 35
Others - 4

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Northam: 48.7%
Gillespie: 47.8%

Murphy: 60
Guandango: 39

[The Other Castro]

VA-GOV
Ralph Northam +5 against Ed Gillespie

NJ-GOV
Phil Murphy +17 against Kim Guadagno

Might as well stay consistent. Keeping this still, final prediction.

To add to this, Democrats in VA HoD gain seats 2, 42, 32, 31, 67, 12, 13, 51.

[kyc0705]

Virginia, governor:
Northam (D): 50%
Gillespie (R): 48%
Hyra (L): 2%

New Jersey, governor:
Murphy (D): 58%
Guadagno (R): 39%
Other: 3%

New York City, mayoral:
De Blasio will get re-elected, but a lack of polling in this race, as well as a certain feeling of inevitability toward his win, which could soften turnout, means I'm not sure what his margin of victory will be.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Virginia, governor:
Northam (D): 50%
Gillespie (R): 48%
Hyra (L): 2%

New Jersey, governor:
Murphy (D): 58%
Guadagno (R): 39%
Other: 3%

New York City, mayoral:
De Blasio will get re-elected, but a lack of polling in this race, as well as a certain feeling of inevitability toward his win, which could soften turnout, means I'm not sure what his margin of victory will be.

This would be my "Safe" prediction.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Virginia Governor
Northam (D) 52.0%
Gillespie (R) 46.5%
Hyra (L) 1.5%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor
Fairfax (D) 53.1%
Vogel (R) 46.9%

Virginia Attorney General
Herring (D) 54.3%
Adams (R) 45.7%

New Jersey Governor
Murphy (D) 61.3%
Guadagno (R) 35.6%
Others 3.0%

[wxtransit]

Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0001%
Ralph Northam (D) - 47.9999%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

Republican gain

Revised:
Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ralph Northam (D) - 48.0%
Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

All others stay the same.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0001%
Ralph Northam (D) - 47.9999%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

Republican gain

Revised:
Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ralph Northam (D) - 48.0%
Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

All others stay the same.

You're switching two voters from Gillespie to Northam?

[wxtransit]

Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0001%
Ralph Northam (D) - 47.9999%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

Republican gain

Revised:
Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ralph Northam (D) - 48.0%
Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

All others stay the same.

You're switching two voters from Gillespie to Northam?

As they say, every vote counts!

[OriginalJeremiah]

VA-GOV

49.6% Northam (D)
48.8% Gillespie (R)
1.6% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

51.8% Fairfax (D)
48.2% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.3% Herring (D, inc.)
47.7% Adams (R)

VA-HOD

+9-11 Dems

NJ-GOV

55.3% Murphy (D)
41.1% Guadagno (R)
3.6% Others

WA-45

53.2% Manka Dhingra (D)
46.8% Jinyoung Lee Englund (R)

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

[Jeppe]

I’m feeling pretty optimistic about Virgini, Northam +10, with Fairfax trailing Northam ever so slightly, and Herring running ahead ever so slightly. 55 Republican - 45 Democratic House of Delegates seats

Not completely sure about New Jersey, but let’s say Murphy +20.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah Northam will win. Turnout in Northern Virginia is higher than South West.

[McGovernForPrez]

VA-Gov
Northam 52%
Gillepsie 46%

VA-house
D+9 seats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Northam: 53%
Gillespie: 46%

[The Govanah Jake]

Final Predictions

Virginia Governor's Race

Ralph Northam: 49.01%
Ed Gillespie: 48.55%
Cliff Hyra: 2.03%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor's

Justin Fairfax: 50.38%
Jill Vogel: 48.15%

Virginia Attorney General

Mark Herring: 52.01%
John Adams: 47.84%

New Jersey Governor's

Phil Murphy: 52.5%
Kim Guadagno: 41.9%
Others: 5.6%

New York City Mayor's Race

Bill De Blasio: 65.83%
Nicole Malliotakis: 28.12%
Bo Dietli: 4.02%
Sal Albanese: 1.45%

Utah 3rd congressional district special Election, 2017

John Curtis: 56.38%
Kathie Allen: 29.69%
Jim Bennett: 8.03%


New York state Constitutional Convention vote, 2017

No: 55.96%
Yes: 44.04%

Atlanta 2017 Mayor's race

Keisha Lance Bottoms : 25.7%
Mary Norwood : 23.9%
Peter Aman : 14.1%
Vincent Fort : 11.9%
Cathy Woolard : 11.7%
Ceasar Mitchell : 5.1%
Kwanza Hall : 4.4%
John Eaves : 1.1%

Washington 45th District special election

Manka Dhingra: 56.03%
Jinyoung Englund; 42.97%

Virginia House of Delegates

Republicans: 56 Seats (-10)
Democrats: 44 Seats (+10

Maine Medicaid Expansion ballot initiative

Yes: 57.94%
No: 42.06%

Ohio Drug Price Relief Act

Yes: 53.58%
No: 46.42%

Cincinnati mayor election

Yvette Simpson: 50.72%
John Cranley: 49.13%

Nassau County executive election

Laura Curran: 51.02%
Jack Martins: 48.85%

Westchester county executive election

Rob Astorino: 49.75%
George Latimer: 49.16%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@Jake You forgot to predict the Seattle mayoral election.

[The Govanah Jake]

@Jake You forgot to predict the Seattle mayoral election.

Not too understanding of the situation and can find much polling but from what I read I would predict it something like 51-48% for Durkan

[LimoLiberal]

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

Feel great about this as we head into the last few hours of voting.

[Keep cool-idge]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

I figure it’s time to update all of these

Virginia

Ed Gillespie
48.72%

Ralph Northam 48.31%

Jill Vogel 49.70%

Justin Fairfax

49.56%

John Adams

48.25%

Mark Herring

51.15%

House of delegates

+4 democrat

New Jersey

Phil Murphy

56.96%

Kim Guadagno

39.40%

Washington state senate 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund

43.29%

Manka Dhingra

56.20%

Okay there you have it my final predictions.

I’m sticking with all of this
Right now my margin of error is 1.4%

[BudgieForce]

I didnt know we could give ourselves margin of errors.