Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Northam will beat Gillespie narrowly, as he's a moderate who will dominate in NoVa (the same way McAuliffe won four years ago.)  Murphy will cream Guadogno.  Mayor Weaver will be recalled in Flint.

[Mike Thick]

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 51%, Northam 46%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 53%, Kim Guadagno 45%

I'll probably end up eating crow over this, but whatevs

Even when I win, I still lose

[Mr. Smith]

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

...And this is the third time where my first guess was actually the correct margin and I overestimated the Republican.

[The Govanah Jake]

Final Predictions

Virginia Governor's Race

Ralph Northam: 49.01%
Ed Gillespie: 48.55%
Cliff Hyra: 2.03%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor's

Justin Fairfax: 50.38%
Jill Vogel: 48.15%

Virginia Attorney General

Mark Herring: 52.01%
John Adams: 47.84%

New Jersey Governor's

Phil Murphy: 52.5%
Kim Guadagno: 41.9%
Others: 5.6%

New York City Mayor's Race

Bill De Blasio: 65.83%
Nicole Malliotakis: 28.12%
Bo Dietli: 4.02%
Sal Albanese: 1.45%

Utah 3rd congressional district special Election, 2017

John Curtis: 56.38%
Kathie Allen: 29.69%
Jim Bennett: 8.03%


New York state Constitutional Convention vote, 2017

No: 55.96%
Yes: 44.04%

Atlanta 2017 Mayor's race

Keisha Lance Bottoms : 25.7%
Mary Norwood : 23.9%
Peter Aman : 14.1%
Vincent Fort : 11.9%
Cathy Woolard : 11.7%
Ceasar Mitchell : 5.1%
Kwanza Hall : 4.4%
John Eaves : 1.1%

Washington 45th District special election

Manka Dhingra: 56.03%
Jinyoung Englund; 42.97%

Virginia House of Delegates

Republicans: 56 Seats (-10)
Democrats: 44 Seats (+10

Maine Medicaid Expansion ballot initiative

Yes: 57.94%
No: 42.06%

Ohio Drug Price Relief Act

Yes: 53.58%
No: 46.42%

Cincinnati mayor election

Yvette Simpson: 50.72%
John Cranley: 49.13%

Nassau County executive election

Laura Curran: 51.02%
Jack Martins: 48.85%

Westchester county executive election

Rob Astorino: 49.75%
George Latimer: 49.16%

1. I got the winner correct though I badly overestimated the republican

2. Closer to the result but overestimated the republican

3. Slightly overestimated the result though this is the closest Vitgina prediction to the actual result

4. Overestimated the third party margin which results it being off by 1% in favor of Murphy

5. Badly over east images the third party's. Though by De Blasio and Malliotakis percentages are pretty good

6. I think this would pretty good

7. Got No right but didn't expect it too win by 80%

8. Overestimated Fort though this was correct in the outcome

9. At least I got the winner

10. Surprised by how much they gained here

11. Pretty spot on

12. Dead wrong

13. Wrong

14. Pretty spot on. Hopefully Martins is done after this

15. Dead wrong. Didn't expect a 57% Latimer win

Overall - Some spot on, some dead wrong, in general overeastimated Republicans.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

Predicted Gov pretty good - overestimated Gillespie by 1.5%
Didn't get Lt Gov close, was fooled by the closer polls for Fairfax. Overestimated Vogel by 2%.
Attorney General was a good matching result.

VA HoD - way off, but probably better then most. I don't think anyone expected 15+. For someone who was following DDHQ constantly on this, I arguably only really though the Dem wave would make gains in NOVA and a few other places. Didn't expect the VA Beach/Richmond flips.

NJ Gov - Reasonably far off, 3% overestimated Murphy. Curse that low turnout!

[Panhandle Progressive]

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

VA HoD - way off, but probably better then most. I don't think anyone expected 15+. For someone who was following DDHQ constantly on this, I arguably only really though the Dem wave would make gains in NOVA and a few other places. Didn't expect the VA Beach/Richmond flips.

Don't beat yourself up too much over this one. The most optimistic pundits didn't go any higher and most had a maximum gain of 5 or 6. So I'd say that's about as good as any prediction for this came.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

VA HoD - way off, but probably better then most. I don't think anyone expected 15+. For someone who was following DDHQ constantly on this, I arguably only really though the Dem wave would make gains in NOVA and a few other places. Didn't expect the VA Beach/Richmond flips.

Don't beat yourself up too much over this one. The most optimistic pundits didn't go any higher and most had a maximum gain of 5 or 6. So I'd say that's about as good as any prediction for this came.

I seem to be alone on this. I was expecting way more gains in the HoD for the Democrats than anybody else and was much more bullish on their chances of flipping it or coming close. I don't believe I made the prediction public, but it was definitely my expectation that the conventional wisdom was low-balling Democrats' chances.

[Virginiá]

I think the mods can unsticky this thread now, no?

Oopsies. Yes