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November 20, 2017, 10:03:37 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 14476 times)
Bagel23
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« Reply #50 on: June 07, 2017, 12:02:35 pm »
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VA-GOV
49% Northam (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV
50% Fairfax (D)
46% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN
52% Herring (D)
45% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy (D)
37% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
70% DeBlasio (D)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 12:26:10 am by Bagel23 »Logged

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« Reply #51 on: June 07, 2017, 12:12:31 pm »
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VA-GOV
52% Northam
45% Gillespie

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy
39% Guadango
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Cory Booker
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« Reply #52 on: June 11, 2017, 10:53:51 am »
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VA GOV
Tom Perriello 52-42%


NJ Gov
Patrick Murphy 59-39%
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Nyvin
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« Reply #53 on: June 14, 2017, 11:38:25 am »
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53% Northam
45% Gillespie

59% Murphy
39% Guadango
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Vern
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« Reply #54 on: June 17, 2017, 08:50:22 am »
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49% Gillespie
48% Northam


57% Murphy
40% Guadango
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MB
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« Reply #55 on: June 21, 2017, 10:54:39 pm »
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NJ:
54% Murphy
40% Guadagno

VA:
48% Northam
47% Gillespie
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Live free

AL-Gov: Walter Maddox (D)
CA-Gov: John Cox (R)
FL-Gov: John Morgan (D)
MD-Gov: Ben Jealous (D)/Larry Hogan (R)
NJ-Gov: Seth Kaper-Dale (G)
OK-Gov: Gary Richardson (R)
OR-Gov: Kate Brown (D)

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D)
CA-Sen: David Hildebrand (D)
ME-Sen: Angus King (I)
NV-Sen: Jesse Sbaih (D)
OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D)
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D)
VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders (I)

WI-01: Randy Bryce (D)
UT-03: Jim Bennett (UU)

POTUS: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #56 on: June 22, 2017, 09:09:32 am »
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Guadagno is going down worse than Buono. Christie + Trump = NJ electing a ham sandwich by +20 points as long as theirs a D in front of it on the ballot.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #57 on: June 30, 2017, 10:55:57 pm »
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New Jersey

Murphy 65%
Guagdano 33%

Virginia

Northam 51%
Gillespie 47%

New York City Mayor

De Blasio 64%
Malliotakis 35%

Bonus-Alabama Senate

Republican (Mo Brooks) 60%
Democrat (Doug Jones) 40%
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #58 on: July 15, 2017, 10:54:29 am »

The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #59 on: July 15, 2017, 10:59:19 am »
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The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #60 on: July 15, 2017, 11:13:24 am »

The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.


Thanks - this is done.
Best,
Dave
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #61 on: July 15, 2017, 05:02:09 pm »
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The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.


Thanks - this is done.
Best,
Dave

Thank you!
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olawakandi
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« Reply #62 on: August 01, 2017, 10:14:02 pm »
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VA GOV
Ralph Northam 50-48%


NJ Gov
Patrick Murphy 59-39%


Still VA tilts D and solid for Murphy in VA
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Ted Bessell
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« Reply #63 on: August 11, 2017, 08:11:35 pm »
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Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 49%, Northam 47%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 61%, Kim Guadagno 37%

Subject to change, of course. I don't even know why I'm bothering, since I've never predicted a major election correctly.
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« Reply #64 on: August 29, 2017, 12:13:32 pm »
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Virginia (Lean D)
New Jersey (Likely D)
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I never use toss ups.

Current predictions:

Senate 2017/2018:

Here

Governor 2018/2019:

Here

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
KingSweden
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« Reply #65 on: August 29, 2017, 01:43:42 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

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windjammer
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« Reply #66 on: August 29, 2017, 01:49:26 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate


No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
KingSweden
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« Reply #67 on: August 29, 2017, 05:01:35 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate


No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15
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« Reply #68 on: August 29, 2017, 05:24:17 pm »

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #69 on: August 30, 2017, 05:27:31 pm »
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No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.

I think Northam wins too - but I've been burned prediction-wise many times over the last 2 years, so I'm being conservative here
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #70 on: September 07, 2017, 10:42:29 am »
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VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 48%
Other: 2%

NJ:
Murphy: 65%
Guadagno: 32%
Other: 3%
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« Reply #71 on: September 10, 2017, 08:43:01 am »
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VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 44%
Hyra: 6%

NJ:
Murphy: 62%
Guadagno: 35%
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« Reply #72 on: September 11, 2017, 06:19:36 pm »
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Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%
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Bagel23
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« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2017, 07:19:22 pm »
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Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%


That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.
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Greedo The Hunter
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« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2017, 07:40:44 pm »
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Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%


That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.
That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.
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