Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Keep cool-idge]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.

That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.

I too think Herring is overated. Everyone is biting their nails in gov and lt gov races, but nearly everything and everyone (including early polls) are shrugging and saying, oh that guy, lol, he's a shoo in. Something makes me not buy it... I still think he will win, but by small margins, and possibly a plurality, though probably a slim majority.

I agree plus with the name john Adams that should help him out.

VA Dems should sweep all three races.

As a reminder of turnout: (June primary #'s)
Total D votes for Gov: 543,000
Total R votes for Gov: 366,000
177,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Total D votes for Lt Gov: 514,000
Total R votes for Lt Gov: 355,000
159,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Trump Fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. Can't wait to see the tweets from Trump on election eve.

I really honestly think the polls on trump are wrong because look at RCP polls of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Hillary was ment to win Wisconsin by 6 points she lost by 1 point

As for Virginia if trump weren't the nominee Rubio or kaisch heck I think even ted Cruz would have won barely trump was worst fit for Virginia

As for the dems sweeping it is 100% possible that northam wins but I honestly think ed Gillespie is going to eke it out barely but right now I think there is a shot it becomes the closest governors race in history.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.

That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.

I too think Herring is overated. Everyone is biting their nails in gov and lt gov races, but nearly everything and everyone (including early polls) are shrugging and saying, oh that guy, lol, he's a shoo in. Something makes me not buy it... I still think he will win, but by small margins, and possibly a plurality, though probably a slim majority.

I agree plus with the name john Adams that should help him out.

VA Dems should sweep all three races.

As a reminder of turnout: (June primary #'s)
Total D votes for Gov: 543,000
Total R votes for Gov: 366,000
177,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Total D votes for Lt Gov: 514,000
Total R votes for Lt Gov: 355,000
159,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Trump Fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. Can't wait to see the tweets from Trump on election eve.

I really honestly think the polls on trump are wrong because look at RCP polls of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Hillary was ment to win Wisconsin by 6 points she lost by 1 point

As for Virginia if trump weren't the nominee Rubio or kaisch heck I think even ted Cruz would have won barely trump was worst fit for Virginia

As for the dems sweeping it is 100% possible that northam wins but I honestly think ed Gillespie is going to eke it out barely but right now I think there is a shot it becomes the closest governors race in history.

I agree that Rubio or Kasich would have done better than Trump, but probably not enough to win the state. As far as Cruz, he would have been stomped here in 2016. Most Virginians (myself included) prefer moderate politicians from both parties. Demographic changes since 2004 have shifted enough that I can't even see someone similar to George W. Bush being able to win the Virginia of today.

[The Govanah Jake]

VA-GOV

48.81% Northam (D)
46.02% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV

49.81% Fairfax (D)
47.10% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN

54.85% Herring (D)
44.15% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.97% Murphy (D)
42.36%% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor

68.6% DeBlasio (D)
31.4% (R+O)

[Spark]

VA-GOV

Gillespie (R)  50.24%
Northam (D) 48.86%

VA-LT GOV

Fairfax (D) 49.36%
Vogel (R) 48.74%

VA-AT GEN

Herring (D) 53.45%
Adams (R) 45.55%

NJ-GOV

Murphy (D) 56.34%
Guadagno (R) 43.66%

New York Mayor

DeBlasio (D) 72.3%
(R): 28.6%

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA-GOV

Gillespie (R)  49.18%
Northam (D) 48.92%

IN YOUR DREAMS!

[Maxwell]

Updated

VA-GOV
Northam - 52%
Gillespie - 45%

VA-LT GOV
Fairfax - 51%
Vogel - 46%

VA- ATT GEN
Herring - 55%
Adams - 44%

NJ - GOV
58% Muphy
39% Guadagno


70% for Deblasio, but bolder prediction sick weirdo Bo Dietl beats whatever Staten Islander is on the Republican ticket.

[Keep cool-idge]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

[KingSweden]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

I actually think that's a pretty fair prediction for WA-SD45

[Mr. Smith]

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Virginia (Lean D)
New Jersey (Likely D)

Changes:
Virginia (Likely D)
New Jersey (Safe D)

[Keep cool-idge]

Virginia (Lean D)
New Jersey (Likely D)

Changes:
Virginia (Likely D)
New Jersey (Safe D)

Stand by your likely democrat call?

[The Other Castro]

VA-GOV
Ralph Northam +5 against Ed Gillespie

NJ-GOV
Phil Murphy +17 against Kim Guadagno

Keeping this, no changes.

[heatcharger]

VA-GOV:
Northam - 50.7%
Gillespie - 47.0%
Hyra - 2.3%

VA-LG:
Fairfax - 52.1%
Vogel 47.5%

VA-AG:
Herring - 52.4%
Adams - 47.3%

VA-HoD:
Republicans - 58
Democrats - 42 (+8)

NJ-GOV:
Murphy - 57.0%
Guadagno - 41.5%

[LimoLiberal]

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy

[progressive85]

Virginia Governor
48.26% Ed Gillespie (R)
47.95% Ralph Northam (D)

Lieutenant Governor
48.67% Justin Fairfax (D)
47.84% Jill Vogel (R)

New Jersey Governor
54.13% Phil Murphy (D)
45.87% Kim Guadagno (R)

[Panhandle Progressive]

Virginia Governor
48.26% Ed Gillespie (R)
47.95% Ralph Northam (D)

lol

[_]

VA-Gov

Ralph Northam (D):  49.4%
Ed Gillespie (R):  48.8%

NJ-Gov

Phil Murphy (D):  52%
Kim Guadagno (R):  40%

[MT Treasurer]

No. Only the people who were taking a single obscure poll with Gillespie up 1 as proof that "OMG THIS IS A PURE TOSSUP GILLESPIE GONNA WIN!1!" particularly when the polling average indicates a leans D, if not likely D, affair at about 5-6 points.

I'm not even exaggerating. If you read through the replies to the Monmouth poll, half of those #hottakes were a variant of that line^. It's kinda funny how the Democrats on these threads discount outlier polls that favor them (Fox's Alabama poll and the WaPo/Quinnipiac Virginia polls) while treating outliers that favor Republicans (like Virginia's Monmouth) as gospel. A consistent stand would be to simply throw them into the averages.

There's no way to know for sure whether a poll is an outlier or not until the election has actually been held. That AL-Fox poll could certainly be accurate, especially if most undecideds are GOP-leaning voters. I think the VA-Quinnipiac/WaPo polls are nonsense, but I wouldn't simply entirely dismiss the idea that they could be accurate or ignore them. You're acting as if the results the election are basically set in stone.

And no, I've always said that this race is Lean/Likely D, and it seems like people on this forum are greatly exaggerating the importance of "candidate quality" anyway - polarization, the partisan lean of a state/district as well as the political environment (also at the state level) are equally important factors. Like I said before, I find this idea that VA is still winnable for Rs incredibly ridiculous in general.

[Mike Thick]

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 51%, Northam 46%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 53%, Kim Guadagno 45%

I'll probably end up eating crow over this, but whatevs

[Panhandle Progressive]

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 51%, Northam 46%

You should explain why you think the Republican is going to win by 5% when Democrats enjoy every advantage this cycle. Even Hillary won our state by over 5% and you think Gillespie is going to win by roughly this same margin? Oh pulease. This is the New Dominion. Northam's win will make 4 wins out of our last 5 governor races.

[Progressive]

VA Gov
Ralph Northam (D)  52%
Ed Gillespie (R)           46%

VA LG
Justin Fairfax (D)   51%
Jill Vogel (R)              47%

VA AG
Mark Herring (D)    54%
Adams (R)                45%

NJ Gov
Phil Murphy (D)     56%
Kim Guadagno (R)     42%

NYC Mayor
Bill de Blasio (D)     60%
Nicole Malliotakis (R)   23%
Bo Dietl (I)                 13%
The rest                     ~4%

[TheSaint250]

New Jersey (Governor):

Phil Murphy (D): 52.5%
Kim Guadagno (R): 41.0%
Gina Genovese (I): 3.5%
Seth Kaper-Dale (G): 2.0%
Peter Rhorman (L): 1.0%
Other: 0.0%


Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 50.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.5%


New York City (Mayor):

Bill De Blasio (D): 61.0%
Nicole Malliotakis (R): 29.0%
Bo Dietl (I): 5.0%
Sal Albanese (REF): 3.0%
Other: 2.0%



Predictions of results are rounded to the nearest percentage point or the nearest half-percentage point.

[heatcharger]

Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 49.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.0%
Other: 1.5%

There is no “Other”.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Jersey (Governor):

Phil Murphy (D): 52.5%
Kim Guadagno (R): 41.0%
Gina Genovese (I): 3.5%
Seth Kaper-Dale (G): 2.0%
Peter Rhorman (L): 1.0%
Other: 0.0%


Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 49.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.0%
Other: 1.5%


New York City (Mayor):

Bill De Blasio (D): 68.0%
Nicole Malliotakis (R): 32.0%
Bo Dietl (I): 5.0%
Sal Albanese (REF): 3.0%
Other: 2.0%



Predictions of results are rounded to the nearest percentage point or the nearest half-percentage point.

Your NYC numbers total to 110% (not that it really matters).

[TheSaint250]

Edited.  Thanks, guys.