Nov. 2017 general election predictions?
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 28903 times)
Mr. Smith
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« Reply #100 on: October 23, 2017, 02:25:05 PM »

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #101 on: October 23, 2017, 02:49:30 PM »

VA-Gov.
Northam (D): 52%
Gillespie (R): 45%
Hyra (L): 3%

VA-LGov.
Fairfax (D): 52%
Vogel (R): 48%

VA-At.Gen
Herring (D): 55%
Adams (R): 45%
------------------------------------------------------------------
NJ-Gov.
Murphy (D): 55%
Guadagno (R): 38%
Other: 7%
------------------------------------------------------------------
NYC-Mayoral
de Blasio (D): 62%
Malliotakis (R): 21%
Albanese (I): 9%
Dietl (I): 4%
Other: 4%
------------------------------------------------------------------
AL-Sen.
Moore (R): 52.2%
Jones (D): 47.8%

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #102 on: October 23, 2017, 07:19:46 PM »


Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 49.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.0%
Other: 1.5%

There is no “Other”.

Probably WI's.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #103 on: October 23, 2017, 07:36:33 PM »


Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 49.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.0%
Other: 1.5%

There is no “Other”.

Probably WI's.

I was thinking write-ins, as well as others, but now that there are no others, I fixed it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #104 on: October 29, 2017, 01:27:56 AM »

VA (Governor)Sad

50.1% Ralph Northam (D)
47.0% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.5% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins


NJ (Governor)Sad

60.3% Phil Murphy (D)
38.0% Kim Guadagno (R)
  1.7% Others


NY (Mayor)Sad

64.4% Bill de Blasio (D)
35.6% Others


UT-03 (Special Election)Sad

67.6% John Curtis (R)
32.4% Others


---

I expect a general backlash against POTUS Trump, like it is the case in every off-year election at the start of a new President's term. Which means Democrats defend VA (I don't buy the close polls there) and will pick up NJ easily (Christie has been a trainwreck in the past years). De Blasio will easily win re-election in NYC as well. Republicans will easily win the UT-03 special election.

I'll post another prediction for the AL Senate special election in December.
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mds32
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« Reply #105 on: October 29, 2017, 09:54:41 PM »

VA (Governor):

50.9% Ralph Northam (D)
46.7% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.4% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins

VA (Lt. Governor):

49.9% Justin Fairfax (D)
49.7% Jill Vogel (R)
  0.5% Write-Ins

VA (Attorney General):

55.3% Mark Herring (D)
44.4% John Adams (R)
  .3% Others

UT-03 (Special Election):

60.6% John Curtis (R)
31.4% Kathie Allen (D)
  7.2 Jim Bennett (I)
  .8 Others
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Brittain33
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« Reply #106 on: October 30, 2017, 07:23:38 AM »

Has anyone found projections for NJ legislature?
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Hydera
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« Reply #107 on: October 30, 2017, 07:50:19 AM »

VA Gov.

50.8% Ralph Northam (D)
44% Ed Gillespie (R)
4.8% Cliff Hyra (L)


VA Lt Gov.

50.6% Justin Fairfax (D)
49.4% Jill Vogel (R)


VA AG

53% Mark Herring (D)
47% John Adams (R)

NJ Gov.

58.4% Phil Murphy (D)
41.8% Kim Guadagno (R)



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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #108 on: October 30, 2017, 11:35:15 AM »

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #109 on: October 30, 2017, 05:56:39 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2017, 06:05:43 PM by President Pence? Rly? »

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #110 on: October 30, 2017, 09:44:45 PM »

VA Gov.

50% Ralph Northam (D)
47% Ed Gillespie (R)
3% Cliff Hyra (L)


VA Lt Gov.

51% Justin Fairfax (D)
49% Jill Vogel (R)


VA AG

54% Mark Herring (D)
46% John Adams (R)

NJ Gov.

57% Phil Murphy (D)
40% Kim Guadagno (R)
3% other
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heatcharger
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« Reply #111 on: October 31, 2017, 10:14:11 PM »



Northam 51.6%
Gillespie 46.1%
Hyra 2.3%

Fairfax 52.2%
Vogel 47.4%

Herring 52.6%
Adams 47.1%

Discuss.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #112 on: October 31, 2017, 10:23:12 PM »

Yeah it could go either way. I don't really know much about Eastern Shore politics, but I assume Gillespie is good enough to hold on to a plurality in a solidly Republican county even if Northam has hometown appeal.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #113 on: November 01, 2017, 08:17:18 PM »

Update:

VA

GOV: Northam 49%/Gillespie 47.5%, county map is McAuliffe - Loudoun + VA Beach and Accomack
LG: Fairfax 51%/Vogel 48%
AG: Herring 53%/Adams 47%

HoD: 59R/41D (D+7)

I now think Northam will trail the rest of the Dem ticket.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #114 on: November 01, 2017, 08:37:26 PM »

Yeah it could go either way. I don't really know much about Eastern Shore politics, but I assume Gillespie is good enough to hold on to a plurality in a solidly Republican county even if Northam has hometown appeal.

Early vote in Accomack is almost 200% what it was in 2013. I have a gut feeling they are pumped about having an Eastern Shore governor.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #115 on: November 01, 2017, 10:25:39 PM »

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy




Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #116 on: November 01, 2017, 10:38:03 PM »

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy




Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

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Virginiá
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« Reply #117 on: November 02, 2017, 12:04:09 AM »

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy




Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

[pic]


Interestingly enough, I remember a while ago looking at polls for Northam that also had HoD generic numbers, and it wasn't uncommon for Democrats to lead in the HoD poll by more than Northam's margin. Or in other words, the Republican brand is not so great in Virginia right now.

Even if Gillespie pulled off a slim win, HoD Republicans are a bit overextended at this point. They are almost surely going to suffer a net loss, and probably not a tiny one either.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #118 on: November 02, 2017, 04:15:44 PM »

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #119 on: November 02, 2017, 04:30:23 PM »

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.

Why would the indictments help Gillespie?
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #120 on: November 02, 2017, 07:53:24 PM »

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.

Why would the indictments help Gillespie?

Somethin somethin outrage about a truck ad that Bill Kristol types from out of state saw somethin somethin

lol Smiley
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #121 on: November 02, 2017, 09:09:04 PM »

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #122 on: November 03, 2017, 03:33:17 PM »

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 

Clinton was doing far better in the late polls though. Last 5 polls for President give you Clinton +5.0 (Average), versus Northam +0.7.
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Kamala
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« Reply #123 on: November 03, 2017, 03:49:10 PM »

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 

Clinton was doing far better in the late polls though. Last 5 polls for President give you Clinton +5.0 (Average), versus Northam +0.7.

Clinton's average also wasn't littered by garbage like The Trolling Company.

The last Quinn poll for Clinton was +12. The last WashPo poll was was Clinton +6. The last Chris Newport poll was Clinton +6. Northam is right near all these polls.

The only major difference I see is Roanoke - was Clinton +7, tie for Northam.

Suffolk didn't even poll Virginia in 2016.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #124 on: November 03, 2017, 03:51:00 PM »

Trump pulled resources out of Virginia in September.
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