Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[KingSweden]

Now get really into the weeds and predict legislatures too hehe

[KingSweden]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

[KingSweden]

VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

[KingSweden]

VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

[KingSweden]

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.

I think Northam wins too - but I've been burned prediction-wise many times over the last 2 years, so I'm being conservative here

[KingSweden]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

I actually think that's a pretty fair prediction for WA-SD45

[KingSweden]

The REAL winner of the VA Governors race:

I don’t know where or how this meme started but I love it and never want it to end