Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (user search)
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  Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 29317 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: October 29, 2017, 01:27:56 AM »
VA (Governor)Sad

50.1% Ralph Northam (D)
47.0% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.5% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins

NJ (Governor)Sad

60.3% Phil Murphy (D)
38.0% Kim Guadagno (R)
  1.7% Others

NY (Mayor)Sad

64.4% Bill de Blasio (D)
35.6% Others

UT-03 (Special Election)Sad

67.6% John Curtis (R)
32.4% Others

---

I expect a general backlash against POTUS Trump, like it is the case in every off-year election at the start of a new President's term. Which means Democrats defend VA (I don't buy the close polls there) and will pick up NJ easily (Christie has been a trainwreck in the past years). De Blasio will easily win re-election in NYC as well. Republicans will easily win the UT-03 special election.

I'll post another prediction for the AL Senate special election in December.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2017, 01:59:51 AM »
I'll leave my prediction unchanged.

I have virtually not followed the races at all, but it seems Northam has made some minor campaign blunders, which means he's not winning by 10%, as he should.

Quote from: Tender Branson on October 29, 2017, 01:27:56 AM
VA (Governor)Sad

50.1% Ralph Northam (D)
47.0% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.5% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins

NJ (Governor)Sad

60.3% Phil Murphy (D)
38.0% Kim Guadagno (R)
  1.7% Others

NY (Mayor)Sad

64.4% Bill de Blasio (D)
35.6% Others

UT-03 (Special Election)Sad

67.6% John Curtis (R)
32.4% Others

---

I expect a general backlash against POTUS Trump, like it is the case in every off-year election at the start of a new President's term. Which means Democrats defend VA (I don't buy the close polls there) and will pick up NJ easily (Christie has been a trainwreck in the past years). De Blasio will easily win re-election in NYC as well. Republicans will easily win the UT-03 special election.

I'll post another prediction for the AL Senate special election in December.
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