Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Skill and Chance]

VA

Governor: Perriello 53%/Gillespie 44%
Dems hold LG and AG
State House: 54R/46D

NJ

Governor: Murphy 58.5%/Guadagno 40.3%

State House: D+4
State Senate: D+2

[Skill and Chance]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

The Trump-Russia scandals should hurt more in NOVA than just about anywhere else in the country.  VA Dems should be quite optimistic about what they could achieve. 

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty sure either Democrat would be slightly if not moderately favored over Gillespie. True, Gillespie has name recognition, but I've been in Northern VA recently, (VA-10 and VA-08) and Trump is utterly despised there. Unless Gillespie somehow distances himself from Trump while not turning off the Republican base, I don't see how he'd win. Also, I'm thinking Perriello would at least over-perform in SW and Southside VA, while Northam would over-perform in Tidewater. Something like a 52-48 D win. The house of delegates also stays in R control with a significantly lower majority.

Any Democrat (most likely Murphy in this case) would be favored in New Jersey, due to the national environment and NJ's strong D lean. We're talking a win in the high 50s. I kind of doubt Murphy will break 60% though. Ds also get a supermajority in both houses.

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.  He probably gets the standard 1-4% "saved by Fairfax" win like most Democrats in the last decade.  Perriello has much more upside because he could both turn out the base and connect with more rural voters than normal for VA Dems and more downside because he isn't very experienced at campaigning and could scare the Dem leaners in Fairfax and Loudoun if they think his policies will lead to CA/NY level taxes.  He could win 54/43, but he could also blow it. 

[Skill and Chance]

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling. 

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

IMO he's focusing way too much on social issues to do meaningfully better than Clinton in any of the rural areas.  Unless you think Fairfax would give Perriello a lower ceiling?

[Skill and Chance]

Update:

VA

GOV: Northam 49%/Gillespie 47.5%, county map is McAuliffe - Loudoun + VA Beach and Accomack
LG: Fairfax 51%/Vogel 48%
AG: Herring 53%/Adams 47%

HoD: 59R/41D (D+7)

I now think Northam will trail the rest of the Dem ticket.

[Skill and Chance]

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 

[Skill and Chance]

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14

2012?  The national polls were like Obama +1 at best.  Granted, that does seem to be the only time in the past 40ish years that the left overperformed fundamentals in a meaningful way (they held both houses of congress in the 1978 Carter midterm, which was legit impressive).