What do you feel the most important election of US history is?

[Skill and Chance]

1860 is objectively the correct answer. No other electoral contest has so fully and irrevocably decided the national character.

No that's 1800. 1860 had the most important nominating convention as who the Republicans chose would have a major impact, but the South acting like spoiled brats was inevitable that year.

Is not that nominating convention a part of the election? It's beyond dispute that the South was going to try and break off from the Union in 1861 no matter what.

That assumes that the Republicans win the White House in 1860.  Assume for the moment that Democrats either hadn't had their 2/3 rule or Douglas manages to get nominated in Charleston despite it. The result is a Douglas victory:

Alternatively, assume that Bell isn't kept off the New York ballot, allowing him to split off some of the ex-Whig vote that Lincoln got, handing the State to Douglas:

There are a few other scenarios that lead to the election going to Congress, but the essential thing is that the Senate was solidly Democratic, so given a choice between the running mates of Lincoln and Breckenridge, it would undoubtedly pick Lane over Hamlin.  That leaves the Republicans with the choice of either supporting Douglas in the House or leaving the Presidency vacant because the House was unable to elect a President with an ardently pro-slavery Vice President serving as Acting President.

Roll Call of the States: U.S. House Election for President in 1860 (36th Congress):

I'm uncertain how Tennessee and Delaware would have voted, but I'm fairly certain that Texas and California would have both been split 1-1 between Douglas and Breckenridge.  This assumes of course that the Republicans accept a Douglas presidency as the lesser of two evils, If they don't, then Lane serves as Acting President until at least December 1861 when the 37th Congress takes office.

Your first scenario would just end with a later Civil War with Southern secession whenever a Republican finally won the EC.  The later it happens, of course, the more of a rout it would be for the North due to industrialization.

I think your second scenario would end with Acting President Lane and most of the Republican
delegation walking out of congress.  Then the Lincoln states (and Upstate NY) secede and declare war.  Given their extreme head start in industrialization, they would surely be able to secure independence within a year or two.  If they are willing to fight for 5+ years, they could even invade the rump US and overthrow the federal government, abolishing slavery nationwide during their occupation.  Troops from Upstate NY and New England would have to occupy NYC as a hostile territory throughout, much like the Confederacy in East Tennessee.


Would make a great alt history!

[Skill and Chance]

Tier 1: 1800 (no civil war), 1860, 1932

Tier 2: 1828, 1876, 1896, 1912, 1944, 1964 (ensures permanent end of Jim Crow and collapse of Southern Dem machines)

The chance of 2020 or 2024 making Tier 2 is quite high.  It is tempting to put 2008 or 2016 in Tier 2, but they kind of cancel each other out and American life has continued to be more normal than most people expected after both of them.

[Orser67]

Tier 1: 1789, 1800, 1860, 1932

Tier 2: 1828, 1844, 1864, 1876, 1896, 1980

Tier 3: 1812, 1840, 1900, 1912, 1920, 1940, 1964, 1968, 2000

[twenty42]

I’m surprised 1960 isn’t a more popular pick in this thread. Kennedy’s election led to his assassination, which spurned a domino effect of the escalation in Vietnam, Watergate, and the Reagan Revolution. I’ll go out on a limb and say no subsequent president after JFK would’ve ever been elected if it wasn’t for his assassination, and that the seeds of today’s political polarity were planted by his death.

[dw93]

I’m surprised 1960 isn’t a more popular pick in this thread. Kennedy’s election led to his assassination, which spurned a domino effect of the escalation in Vietnam, Watergate, and the Reagan Revolution. I’ll go out on a limb and say no subsequent president after JFK would’ve ever been elected if it wasn’t for his assassination, and that the seeds of today’s political polarity were planted by his death.

This part is kind of true of every election. For example, if Dewey won in 1948, Eisenhower is most likely not elected President so there's a good chance Kennedy isn't either etc... I know for a fact Reagan wouldn't have been elected in 1980, which most likely means none of the Bushes, or Clinton, or Obama get elected either. The Country would also have gone on a much more moderate path (but still to the right of the path of 1933-1981 OTL) had Reagan not won and someone else had been elected in 1980.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'd say 1960 was the most important election since WWII (though 1968 and 1992 were close). Had the 1960 election gone the other way, as it easily could have, the political landscape going forward would have been completely different, with the GOP playing more center stage; it is not inconceivable that Shirley Temple Black (R) might have become the first woman President.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd say 1960 was the most important election since WWII (though 1968 and 1992 were close). Had the 1960 election gone the other way, as it easily could have, the political landscape going forward would have been completely different, with the GOP playing more center stage; it is not inconceivable that Shirley Temple Black (R) might have become the first woman President.

1960 is pretty overrated actually.  Kennedy wavered and Johnson ended up doing all of the hard stuff (which he probably does during 1968-72 if Kennedy lives on). 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

1800, 1860, 1864 and 1936 are obvious picks but a shout out really needs to be made for 1844. 1840 too, as it set the pattern for populist campaigning and led to the events of 1844 and after.

[Skill and Chance]

1800, 1860, 1864 and 1936 are obvious picks but a shout out really needs to be made for 1844. 1840 too, as it set the pattern for populist campaigning and led to the events of 1844 and after.

Good point.  There's no way the US has anywhere near as good of a 20th century without a West Coast and a Texas oil boom.  For now, it's in Tier 2, but I see 1844 only increasing in importance with time. 

You could make a similar argument for 1944.  If there is ever a large scale nuclear war and civilization survives to write about it, Harry Truman will be a household name in 1000 years.

[augbell]

XVIIIth century: 1800 Democracy passes the test, a different party can peacefully win the presidential election
XIXth century: 1828, Andrew Jackson creates the Democratic Party
XXth century: 1932, the foundations of a strong government are layed
XXIth century: 2008, democrats can win without the south

[brucejoel99]

1860 is objectively the correct answer. No other electoral contest has so fully and irrevocably decided the national character.

[Del Tachi]

1968 is a good candidate too