How did Minnesota stay blue

[South Dakota Democrat]

The point about the 3rd Congressional District moving further left is a very important one to remember, and is one of the key reasons Clinton was able to eke out a victory in the state, but another important and thus far unmentioned point is this: Evan McMullin was on the ballot in Minnesota, as opposed to the other typically-Democrat Midwestern states, and received 53,076 votes there (Clinton won the state by 44,765). Also, it's important to remember Trump came in 3rd in the Republican Primary in this state, and the state's Republican Party is historically more moderate than not.

Finally someone is bringing up mcmuffin that is the reason trump lost if the polls had shown trump losing by only 1 point he would have won by the same margin that he did in Michigan the mcmuffin voters would have gone trump or if he wasn't on the ballot at all trump would have won.

Nice punctuation there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was still the first time it voted more Republican than the nationwide average since 1952.

[morgankingsley]

What is crazy is that Trump did win more districts in it. He won five of the eight districts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is crazy is that Trump did win more districts in it. He won five of the eight districts

That's because Keith Ellison's seat packs Democrats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quite simply, the Democrats have a stable floor with the Twin Cities and some of their suburbs.

[Use Your Illusion]

I'm not surprised at all. Minnesota has probably the deepest Democratic roots of any state in the country over the last 50 years. It might flip for the Republicans in presidential elections of the future and probably elect senators and governors down the line but the effect of the Humphrey generation and the Democratic-Farmer/Labor is pretty much going to stand the test of time at this point. A bit like the Kennedy's in Massachusetts but a different song of the same genre. I don't think it will ever fully leave the Democratic party until it's firmly given a reason to.

[SN2903]

The democrats lucked out. It is trending R and I think Trump takes it in 2020 esp. because a lot of Hillary '16 voters who were more Republican leaners were terrified of Trump and won't be next time.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Culturally speaking, Minnesota has become more like the Pacific Northwest than it is like Wisconsin or Iowa. The Cities are a hip white urban cultural center. Not quite like Seattle or Portland, but not far behind. Minneapolis is basically Portland for hipsters who don't mind cold weather :-).

[538Electoral]

The big cities make MN blue pretty much. I'd give Trump between a 30-40% chance of flipping Minnesota in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Trump got close by promising infrastructure, and infrastructure of any kind from bridges to steel-box buildings depends heavily upon iron and hence iron ore. As it turns out, the infrastructure that Trump promotes is mostly privatizing the public sector, so the only iron likely to be put to use would be in installing toll gantries on existing free highways, including those already in existence. Having to pay a $20 toll to drive 20 miles on a road on which you do not already pay a toll and finding that the only improvement is the snob value of paying more for what you get is a raw deal for working people. They found out, and now they despise Trump. Wanna pay $20 for tickets to a Twins' game only to pay $100 in tolls to get to the Twin  Cities?

People did not realize what a raw deal Trump was in 2016. They do now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Evan McMullin

[morgankingsley]

Evan McMullin

I did the math, if mcmullin had not run and those votes went to trump, trump would win Minnesota by 8000 votes

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Evan McMullin

I did the math, if mcmullin had not run and those votes went to trump, trump would win Minnesota by 8000 votes

Trump still would have lost Minnesota without McMullin on the ballot...

1). Not everyone who voted for McMullin would have voted for Trump
2). Many people who voted for McMullin wouldn't have voted at all
3). Voting for a fringe right-wing independent indicated an extreme unwillingness to vote for Trump.

[RINO Tom]

Evan McMullin

I did the math, if mcmullin had not run and those votes went to trump, trump would win Minnesota by 8000 votes

Trump still would have lost Minnesota without McMullin on the ballot...

1). Not everyone who voted for McMullin would have voted for Trump
2). Many people who voted for McMullin wouldn't have voted at all
3). Voting for a fringe right-wing independent indicated an extreme unwillingness to vote for Trump.

While all three might be true, #1 wouldn't be statistically relevant.  They MIGHT have stayed home, but the vast, vast majority of McMullin voters would have preferred Trump to Clinton, IMO.  They also seem like the types who would be unwilling to sit an election out ... excuse my stereotyping, but your Nader voter who might have stayed home isn't exactly my image of your Movement Conservative Warrior who voted for McMullin.  They're votin'.

[morgankingsley]

Evan McMullin

I did the math, if mcmullin had not run and those votes went to trump, trump would win Minnesota by 8000 votes

Trump still would have lost Minnesota without McMullin on the ballot...

1). Not everyone who voted for McMullin would have voted for Trump
2). Many people who voted for McMullin wouldn't have voted at all
3). Voting for a fringe right-wing independent indicated an extreme unwillingness to vote for Trump.

While all three might be true, #1 wouldn't be statistically relevant.  They MIGHT have stayed home, but the vast, vast majority of McMullin voters would have preferred Trump to Clinton, IMO.  They also seem like the types who would be unwilling to sit an election out ... excuse my stereotyping, but your Nader voter who might have stayed home isn't exactly my image of your Movement Conservative Warrior who voted for McMullin.  They're votin'.

I said IF it happened, not that it would happen

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

The irony of all is that MN is one of the whitest states in America.

Northern MN also has a big german population, which is typically Democratic too.

Loolooololoololol

Missed this fiery hot take.  Whitest state? NOPE. Got black refugees from Chicago (thanks Daleys!) and lots of Vietnamese, Hmong and Somalian refugees with a sprinkling of other random stuff.



As for Germans? Not northern as much as southern/central MN:

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Because Minnesota is anchored by a massive metro area the same way that Illinois is. The only reason it was close was because base voters stayed home in 2016.

Trump won't win in 2020. There's no way an anti-trade, anti-soy President picks up 40K voters who have voted straight D the last four years, let alone decades for many.

[brucejoel99]

College-educated voters + their major metro area.

[morgankingsley]

The irony of all is that MN is one of the whitest states in America.

Northern MN also has a big german population, which is typically Democratic too.

Loolooololoololol

Missed this fiery hot take.  Whitest state? NOPE. Got black refugees from Chicago (thanks Daleys!) and lots of Vietnamese, Hmong and Somalian refugees with a sprinkling of other random stuff.



As for Germans? Not northern as much as southern/central MN:

While you're right on almost all aspects, the original poster did say "one of the whitest" not "the whitest" indicating more white states