Which of these states is most likely to flip Democratic in 2020?

[Webnicz]

Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.

Carmona was the only one to break that ceiling for the Democrats, right?

Looks that way. They haven't had a Dem governor since 2006 (the Dems have since gotten well below the 44% line) and except 2012, the Senate races have been the same since decades.

Dem nominee for AG put 47% on GOP nominee in '14, Terry Goddard put 47.75% On Michelle Reagan in '14, David Garcia put 49% on a GOP nominee and lost by 16,000 votes in '14...a GOP wave year(These are all statewide races btw)

Paul Penzone won Maricopa County(60% of states population) by 12 points
Adrian Fontes won Maricopa county as well