Shooting Stars

[Hoosier_Nick]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Two

Rokita gave the Republicans their first gain in the Senate with a 58-40 victory.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterms-Part Three

Delaware

Delaware's Senate race was top-of mind for some, especially after Tom Carper announced he would retire in September 2017. Democrats quickly lined up to replace him, with Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester, former Governor Jack Markell, and Attorney General Matthew Denn, quickly establishing themselves as the top three candidates. Markell used his superior name recognition to win the primary with 38% of the vote to 31% for Denn and 26% for Blunt Rochester. Republicans, by contrast nominated Treasurer Ken Simpler with little struggle. Simpler had a difficult task in a state where Trump was unpopular, and ultimately lost 55-41 to Markell, in what was Markell's closest general election since being elected Treasurer in 1998.

The House seat Blunt Rochester was vacating was also not expected to be competitive, and was expected to draw a large number of Democrats. However, State Representative Valerie Longhurst entered, and, other than a few perennial candidates, the field cleared for her. (Longhurst won 70% in the Primary). Republicans, meanwhile nominated Rehoboth Beach Mayor Sam Cooper with minimal fuss. With Trump relatively unpopular in the state, and Cooper running a poor General Election campaign Longhurst won a convincing 61-35 victory

Montana

Jon Tester was expected to be in a dogfight in 2018, especially after he supported Democratic leadership in voting against the ACHA and the tax packages advanced by the House. However, Republicans had trouble finding a candidate, setting up a nomination battle between State Senator Albert Olszewski and State Representative Carl Glimm, neither of whom impressed the NRSC. Glimm won the primary 55-44, and Tester quickly began pulling away, as Glimm struggled to get his message out, leading to the NRSC to triage the race in early October (they had many other targets). Remarkably, given Montana's rightward leanings, Tester defeated Glimm 54-45.

Rob Quist, on the other hand wasn't doing as well. Dealing with a fraudulent pollster scandal, he faced one of the youngest legislators in the country in State Assemblyman Daniel Zolnikov. Zolnikov ran a strong campaign, and the fraudulent pollster scandal was just one bridge too far, as Zolnikov won 49.7-49.3, in a rare bright spot for house Republicans.

South Carolina

With Nikki Haley's appointment as UN Ambassador (then resigning), Henry McMaster became Governor. However he faced opposition in the primary from Congressman (and former Governor) Mark Sanford and former Lieutenant Governor (as a Democrat) Yancy McGill (a fourth candidate, Catharine Templeton was running, but dropped down to run for Sanford's Congressional seat in December 2017). Sanford and McMaster advanced from the primary with 38 and 33 percent of the vote respectively, to 22% for McGill, followed by Sanford winning a bitter runoff (Sanford's extramarital affair was brought up several times) 53-47. Democrats also had a contested primary, with the top candidates being Florence Mayor Stephen Wukela, State Representative Mandy Powers Norrell, and State Senator James Smith. This primary was far more civil than the Republicans, and Powers Norrell ultimately won with 50.47% of the vote to 30.22% for Smith and 18.08% for Wukela. In the general election, the race turned sour again, as Sanford's affair was again brought up by Democrats, while Powers Norrell was derided as a "tax and spend liberal". Ultimately Sanford won 53-44.

Two House races in South Carolina stood out as interesting. Joe Wilson faced a primary challenge from former State Party chair Matt Moore, but he narrowly turned it back 50-47, and went on to defeat an underfunded Democrat with ease.

The open seat being vacated by Mark Sanford (who once again was being elected Governor), was not actually expected to be competitive, but Democrats thought they could put up a fight. They nominated Catharine Templeton (who dropped down from the Governor's race, due to poor polling), while Republicans had a contested primary between Myrtle Beach mayor John Rhodes, Dorchester County Councilman Con Chelis and Goose Creek City Councilman Kevin Condon. Rhodes won the primary with 50.42% of the vote, followed by Condon with 30% and then Chelis with 16.16%. The General was surprisingly competitive, largely due to Sanford's underperformance atop the ballot (Trump was relatively popular here), but Rhodes ultimately held the seat for the Republicans 55-43.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Four

Utah

Orrin Hatch faced the likelihood of a primary challenge should he run again, however Hatch stepped aside (changing his mind about running for the third time) in January 2018. Despite rumblings of Mitt Romney entering the race, the 2012 Presidential nominee declined to run, as did Mia Love, leading to several leading candidates on the Republican side in former Governor (and U.S Health and Services secretary and EPA Administrator) Mike Leavitt, former Congressman Chris Cannon, former Provo Mayor Lewis Billings and State Senator Margaret Dayton (Who had been eliminated at the convention in the race to succeed Jason Chaffetz). Cannon and Billings were eliminated at the convention (neither were collecting signatures to appear on the primary ballot), and Dayton then upset Leavitt in the primary 53-47. Democrats meanwhile, finally persuaded former Congressman Jim Matheson to run, and he cleared the primary field. While Democrats rued that Hatch had stepped aside, Matheson ran a strong campaign, while Dayton seemed to take victory for granted. Still she, and the Republicans won an uncomfortably close 50-44 hold, with 6% going to a write-in campaign for Evan McMillian (which McMillian did not encourage).

None of Utah's House Districts were competitive, however Deidre Henderson (who won her House seat in a special election to replace Jason Chaffetz on Election Day 2017), faced a primary challenge from State Senator Curtis Bramble. Henderson defeated Bramble in the primary 55-44, then defeated her Democratic opponent 68-30.

Alabama

Robert Bentley was term-limited, but his scandals made Kay Ivey Governor, and speculation abounded about whether she would run for a full term. Ivey, however announced she would not run in August 2017, leaving the Republican field wide open. The top candidates were Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, State Senator Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, and State Senator Lee "Trip" Pittman (a fifth candidate, former Morgan County Commissioner Stacy Lee George was also running, but she dropped down to run for Secretary of State- she lost in the primary). Marsh and Merrill advanced to the runoff with 28% and 25% of the vote respectively, with Battle earning 24% and Pittman earning 12.8%. Marsh won the runoff, 53-47. Democrats also had a contested primary, between State Representative Craig Ford and former State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb. Ford won the primary 51-45, and put up a fight in the general. However Trump's popularity here, ultimately put Marsh over the top by a 55-43 margin.

Only one House District drew attention, as Martha Roby faced a primary challenge, for not toeing the Trump line, from Greenville Mayor Dexter McLendon. Roby was still on the outs with the base, and made matters worse by stating she supported impeaching President Trump in May 2018, after Kellyanne Conway's testimony before the House Intelligence Committee. McLendon defeated Roby in the primary 52-43, and defeated 2014 nominee Erick Wright in the general 64-34.

Virginia

Tim Kaine was widely expected to win re-election, and that expectation only increased after the NRSC's top choice Congresswoman Barbara Comstock declined to run, instead choosing to seek re-election. Republicans saw a primary battle between former Congressman Randy Forbes, Former Congressman Tom Davis, Former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and former Hewlett-Packard CEO (and 2010 Senate nominee in California) Carly Fiorina. Fiorina used the name recognition from her 2016 Presidential run to emerge with the primary victory, earning 30.5% of the vote, to 27% for Cuccinelli, 25.5% for Forbes and 16% for Davis. With demographic changes in Virginia, plus Trump's unpopularity, meant Republicans triaged the race by Labor Day. Kaine decisively defeated Fiorina 57-39.

Democrats targeted two seats in Virginia. The first belonged to Scott Taylor, who faced Accomack County Commonwealth's Attorney Gary Agar. Taylor faced a close race, but hung on 51-48, in a race that was only targeted late by Democrats (much like Susan Brooks and John Rhodes).

The other seat belonged to Barbara Comstock, who thought about (and was heavily recruited for) a Senate bid, but ultimately declined. Democrats nominated State Senator Jennifer Wexton, who defeated five opponents in the Democratic primary with 55% of the vote. The general election was nasty, with a Wexton ad calling Comstock a "dangerous extremist" and a Comstock ad calling Wexton a "terrorist enabler". Wexton ultimately gave Democrats another pickup, defeating Comstock 50-48.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving theze indepth results! And awh, no Senator McMullin

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Five

West Virginia

Joe Manchin was in for the fight of his life in 2018, with President Trump holding sky-high approvals, and his own approvals falling. His votes in favor of the AHCA, tax bills, and various Trump nominees left him at odds with his party as well. He barely beat back a primary challenge from Paula Jean Swearingen 49-48, and entered the general election trailing badly. Republicans saw a primary battle between Congressman Evan Jenkins (The NRCC's favorite) and Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. Jenkins had a polling edge through most of the battle, and defeated Morrissey 53-46. In the general, Manchin fell even further behind, and Democrats triaged the race in Early November, days before election day (the same day as Indiana), to focus on other battles elsewhere. Jenkins gave Republicans another gain, 53-45.

The House seat Jenkins was vacating was not expected to be competitive, and the action was in the Republican Primary where State Delegate Rick Snuffer and State Delegate Rupie Phillips waged an expensive ($11.87 million) primary battle. Phillips was able to outspend and outraise Snuffer, and won 50-47, then proceeded to easily defeat a underfunded Democrat 70-24.

Kansas

Sam Brownback was term-limited as Governor, and horrendously unpopular, meaning Democrats had an opening in this ruby-red state. First though, they had a primary to get through, between former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and former Secretary of Agriculture Joshua Svaty. Brewer was endorsed by the DGA, and both Gabrielle Giffords and Michael Bloomberg, while Svaty was able to outraise and outspend him. Still, it wasn't enough, as Brewer won the primary 52-46. Republicans also had a competitive primary, between Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer, former State Representative William Kassebaum (son of Nancy, and Grandson of Alf Landon) and former State Assemblyman Ed O'Malley (a fourth candidate, Secretary of State Kris Kobach originally entered the race, but he dropped down to the Congressional race to succeed Lynn Jenkins). Colyer convincingly won the primary with 61% of the vote, to 18% for Kassebaum and 18% for O'Malley. In the General, Brownback's unpopularity (especially compared to Trump) hovered over the field, and Brewer was able to successfully tie Colyer to Brownback, winning with 37% of the vote to Colyer's 33%, and Greg Orman, who was running an independent campaign earning 28%.

Two Congressional Districts drew some interest from the outside. Roger Marshall faced a primary challenge from the man he unseated in 2016, Tim Huleskamp. The race was bitter, with Huleskamp being called an " bloody tart" and "grade A nimrod" in advertisements. Marshall ended up winning the primary 55-43, and winning the general unopposed.

The other district belonged to Lynn Jenkins, who was retiring. Controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach dropped down from the Governor's race to run here in January 2018, and quickly won the nomination. His opponent would be former State Representative Paul Davis, who was the Democrats 2014 nominee for Governor. Kobach attracted national spending against him, and despite the very red nature of the district, Kobach (and Brownback's unpopularity) put the race in play. Amazingly, Davis scored the upset for the Democrats, defeating Kobach 49-48.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Six

Arkansas

Asa Hutchinson was popular, and was expected to glide to victory. Democrats, however thought they at least had a credible candidate in former U.S Attorney and 2016 Senate nominee Connor Eldridge. However, Eldridge never connected with the overwhelmingly conservative electorate, leading to a 61-37 Hutchinson victory.

Democrats targeted French Hill, nominating State Representative Clarke Tucker (Republicans picked up Tucker's State House seat, as part of their continuing domination of Arkansas). Despite a spirited effort, Hill held the seat for Republicans with a close 51-48 victory.

Georgia

Nathan Deal was term-limited, and had mixed approval ratings. Democrats were determined to invest yet more resources into the state to turn it blue (atlas red). They had a competitive primary between Former Congressman John Barrow, State Assemblywoman Stacey Evans, State Assemblywoman Stacey Abrams, and 2014 Senate nominee Michelle Nunn (Daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn). Abrams and Nunn advanced from the primary to runoff with 31% and 29% respectively to 23% for Barrow and 19% for Evans. Republicans also had a crowded primary, between Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, State Senator Hunter Hill, former Congressman Jack Kingston and former U.S Attorney Joe Whitley. Cagle and Kingston advanced to the runoff with 29% and 24% respectively, to 23.7% for Kemp, 22.3% for Hill and 10.5% for Whitley. After a relatively civil campaign, Cagle won the runoff 52-48. The DGA poured money into the race, and Abrams won for Democrats second gain in a Gubernatorial race 50.3-48.6.

There were two House races worth watching in Georgia, both in seats held by Democrats. David Scott was under fire for donating to Republicans (Johnny Isakson, Mia Love and Bob Corker), and faced a primary challenge from Douglasville City Councilwoman Marcia Hampton. Hampton hit Scott for "not being a real Democrat", and won her challenge 52-47. Hampton, then defeated marginal opposition in the general election 63-36.

The other belonged to Jon Ossoff, who Republicans were certain they could defeat. Former State Senator Dan Moody won the Republican nomination in a runoff against businessman Cade Joiner. Moody's candidacy was not backed by the NRCC, but National Republicans still sought to defeat him. With the mood against President Trump, Ossoff held on for a 50.48-49.12 victory.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Seven

Idaho

Butch Otter was eligible to run for a fourth term as Governor, but he chose not to run, leaving an open seat for the first time since 2006. Several Republicans lined up to compete for the seat, with leading candidates being Congressman Raul Labrador, Lieutenant Governor Brad Little, Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, former State Senator Ross Fulcher and Latah County Commissioner Dave McGraw. Labrador attacked his opponents, especially Little and Wasden for being insufficiently conservative, and received endorsements from Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, (Little was backed by the RGA and Mitt Romney, while Wasden was backed by Butch Otter, John McCain and John Kasich). His endorsements, and attacks put him over the top with 28% of the vote to 25% for Little, 19% for Wasden, 15% for Fulcher and 11% for McGraw. Democrats nominated Boise School Board Trustee, and 2014 nominee AJ Balukoff without much struggle. Despite good results for Democrats in nearby states (like Montana's Senate race), this was not one of those results. Labrador waltzed to victory, 69-29.

Labrador's election as Governor meant an open house seat, and Republicans were expected to line up for the seat. The leading candidates were former Lieutenant Governor David Leroy, Coeur D'Alene City Councilman Dan Gookin, Meridian City Councilman Ty Palmer and Lewiston City Councilman Jesse Maldonado. While Leroy had some name recognition from his tenure as Lieutenant Governor, he had last run for office in 1994 (for a predecessor of this district), and as such was unknown to much of the district. This primary was much more civil than the one atop the ballot, with few attacks. Leroy's endorsements (Butch Otter and Dirk Kempthorne) didn't help, with primary voters, while Labrador remained neutral, a boon to the underdogs. Ultimately Gookin won the Primary with 41% of the vote to 32% for Leroy, 15% for Palmer and 8% for Maldonado. Gookin then defeated his opposition in the general election 70-28.

Washington

Maria Cantwell was widely expected to win another term in the Senate with relative ease, especially as the mood continued to sour against President Trump. Advancing from the top-two primary to face Cantwell was Lewis Treasurer Amy Davis, after several prospective candidates (Dino Rossi, Jamie Herrera Buetler, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Dave Reichert) all declined. Davis's campaign was badly underfunded, and with Trump's unpopularity, he was destined to lose. Cantwell won 70-30.

Democrats targeted a pair of House seats in the Evergreen State. First up was Jaime Herrera Buetler, who spent much of late 2017 contemplating a Senate run, and much of 2018 dodging constituents over the tax bill the House had passed back in May. After the top-two primary Herrera Buetler faced Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt. Herrera Buetler started with the lead, but as Trump's fortunes declined, so did Herrera Buetler's lead, resulting in another Democratic pickup, and a 52-48 victory for Leavitt.

The other target was Dave Reichert. Democrats quickly rallied behind Auburn City Councilwoman Yolanda Trout-Manuel, and she and Reichert easily advanced out of the top-two primary. Reichert was hammered for his voting in favor of the Republican tax bill and going on record saying that impeaching President Trump was "purely political theater", and the NRCC triaged the race to defend other seats. Trout-Manuel won 53-47, for another Democratic gain.

Mississippi

Roger Wicker faced a primary from State Senator Chris McDaniel, who had pulled the same stunt in 2014 against Thad Cochran. Unlike in 2014 however, Wicker was well-liked in Mississippi, and McDaniel as a result faced an uphill task defeating him-or even forcing a runoff. Despite bitter attacks from McDaniel, and endorsements for McDaniel from Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz, Wicker won outright 58-41. Democrats hoped for Jim Hood to run, but he once again declined. Instead they turned to former Governor Ronnie Musgrove for a rematch (he had been the nominee against Wicker in 2008). Progressives grumbled, but many pointed out that they were unlikely to win in Mississippi anyways. Musgrove kept the race close for much of the summer and early fall, but Mississippi's Republican lean was ultimately too much, as Wicker won 59-39, his closest race since is initial election to the Senate (also against Musgrove).

Mississippi had no competitive House races to speak of, either in the primary or in the general election. All four incumbents were re-elected with ease.

[NewYorkExpress]

Midterm Elections 2018-Part Eight

Missouri

Claire McCaskill was widely considered one of the most endangered Senators in the country heading into the 2018 midterms, along with Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly. Republicans had a stacked primary between retired NASCAR star Carl Edwards, Congresswoman Ann Wagner, State Senator Mike Kehoe, former Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, State Senator Ryan Silvey and Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer. Edwards started with the lead due to his celebrity, but he was exposed as a poor campaigner and quickly fell in the polls. The real battle was between Wagner, Kinder and Luetkemeyer for the title of most conservative, and for the lead. Wagner came under fire for unendorsing President Trump, then re-endorsing him, Kinder had several problems dating back to his tenure as Lieutenant Governor, while Lueketmeyer was endorsed by Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin. The race was tight, with Lueketmeyer (who was attacked the least, and had the most prominent endorsements) earning 23% of the vote to Wagner's 18%, Edwards's 15.6%, Kinder's 15.4%, Kehoe's 14% and Silvey's 13.3%. Lueketmeyer was not McCaskill's preferred opponent (that was Kinder), but she had enough material on him to heavily attack him. Once again, like in 2012, a gaffe by an opponent saved McCaskill, as Lueketmeyer used a sexually explicit term to refer to her in a televised debate in Mid-October (in Jefferson City). McCaskill as a result, held the seat for Democrats with a 51-45 victory.

Ann Wagner left behind an open House seat that was just on the edge of what Democrats could target. They nominated State Senator Jill Schupp without any difficulty, while Republicans easily nominated State Representative Marsha Haefner. Despite a good year for Democrats nationally and in Missouri (McCaskill was not expected to win, let alone by six points), this was not a good result, as Haefner held the seat for Republicans 55-42.

Blaine Lueketmeyer also left behind an open House seat. Republicans nominated Franklin County Sherriff Gary Toelke, while Democrats almost didn't field a candidate, with Lincoln County Treasurer Brenda O'Brien entering the day before the filing deadline. Ultimately the rightward lean of the district proved decisive (despite Toelke bucking his party's leadership, and saying he would vote for impeachment of President Trump) as Toelke won 65-33.

Maine

Angus King was one of two Democratic leaning Independents, but with Bernie Sanders changing his voter registration to the Democrats, King would be alone amongst Independents in the Senate if re-elected. He dodged a bullet when Paul LePage declined to run, leaving State Senator Eric Brakey as the Republican nominee. Democrats, angry that King had voted for several of President Trump's cabinet nominees, also put up a candidate, in State Senator Dawn Hill. Brakey never got his campaign going, leaving the race as a battle between King and Hill for the soul of Maine's left. The race was tight all the way through, a surprise to all, heading into election day, but King escaped with 46% of the vote to 45% for Hill and 8% for Brakey.

Paul LePage was term-limited and unpopular, and Democrats itched to pick up his seat. Former State Senator Justin Alfond and former State Representative Mark Eves duked it out in the Primary with Alfond winning 55-44. On the Republican side, Susan Collins kept the field in suspense for months, before bowing out in January 2018, but the very next day the other "Maine Sister" Former Senator Olympia Snowe surprised everyone by announcing she would run instead. Snowe turned back token opposition in the primary, and seemed to be Republican's best chances of keeping the seat red (atlas blue). Alfond and the DGA fought hard, as did the independent candidate in the race (because it's Maine) Treasurer Terry Hayes. However Snowe hung on for a huge win for Republicans with 41% (her lowest share of the vote since running for the House in 1992) 35% for Alfond and 22% for Hayes.

Democrats targeted Bruce Poliquin, who had briefly contemplated a Gubernatorial run before Collins, and then Snowe froze the field out. The DCCC successfully recruited Author Owen King (Son of the acclaimed author Stephen King) to face Poliquin. King received fundraising support from book-lovers across the Democratic Party divide, and earned another pickup for the Democrats defeating Poliquin 50-45.

North Dakota

Heidi Heitkamp was another extremely endangered incumbent. Republicans quickly united behind Congressman Kevin Cramer, and he posted wide leads in the polls for much of the year. Despite Heitkamp's skill at retail politics, the partisan divide was too much, as Cramer gave Republicans their third Senate gain 54-44.

Cramer's election to the Senate left open a House seat. State Senator Tom Campbell won the Republican nomination, and defeated a weak Democrat 63-35.

[NewYorkExpress]

Midterm Elections 2018-Part Nine

Rhode Island

Sheldon Whitehouse was considered one of the safest Senators up in 2018. Republicans got a serious opponent to challenge him in State Senator Robert Nardollio, who received attention regionally for his youth and energy (he was 39), however Whitehouse was untouchable in a relatively anti-Trump midterm, winning 64-33.

Gina Raimondo was one of the most unpopular Governors in the country, and despite early signals that she was running, she stepped aside in October 2017. Attorney General Peter Kilmartin had already announced he would enter, and despite rumors of a Lincoln Chafee run, the field cleared for him (Kilmartin). Republicans, meanwhile had a primary between State Representative Joseph Trillo and State Representative Antonio Giarusso, which Giarusso won 57-40 (local exit polls showed voters preferred a younger nominee- Giarusso was 21 years younger than Trillo, who was 75- by a 65-29 margin). Giarusso ran a spirited campaign linking Kilmartin to Raimondo, and the DGA was forced to spend money that they really shouldn't have needed to here to save the seat. However, a lack of support from the RGA, plus the third party campaign of Ken Block and his Moderate Party cost Giarusso the win, as Kilmartin won with 40% of the vote to Giarusso's 33% and Block's 25.5%.

Both of Rhode Island's Congressional Districts were utterly uncompetitve, with Republicans failing to even field a candidate in David Cicclline's district, and James Langevin defeating his opponent by a 67-29 margin.

South Dakota

Denis Daugaard was term-limited, and could not run for a third term. He exited office relatively popular, and Republicans now dominated the state. They had a competitive primary headlined by Attorney General Marty Jackley, and Congresswoman Kirsti Noem (a third candidate, former State Representative Lora Hubbell, was running, but dropped out to run on the Constitution Party line- she earned less than one percent of the vote in November). The race was brutal, with Noem being castigated for being a member of a "do-nothing Congress" and Jackley getting hit for supporting a proposed new casino near Deadwood. Noem wound up winning the Primary 46-42. Democrats nominated State Senator Billie Sutton, whose youth and energy (he was 34) helped, but they were hurt by the independent candidacy of Sioux Falls Mayor Mike Huether. Noem used her statewide reputation to easily defeat a divided Democratic field with 55% of the vote to 26% for Sutton and 17% for Huether.

Noem's successful bid for Governor left a House seat open, which was expected to produce a crowded Republican Primary. Former Public Utilities Commissioner (and also previously Governor Daugaard's Chief of Staff) Dustin "Dusty" Johnson and Secretary of State Shantel Krebs duked it out for the Republican nomination, with Krebs winning 55-44. Democrats nominated Professional Billiards player Shane Van Boening, but he was unable to make any significant headway into Krebs's lead, leading into a 62-36 Krebs victory.

Arizona

Jeff Flake was in serious trouble, unpopular with both the right and the left, he faced a primary challenge and a likely threat in the general election. Flake's primary opponents were Former State Senator Kelli Ward, Former Congressman Matt Salmon, and Treasurer Jeff DeWit. While a divided primary was expected to help Flake, his criticism of Trump was just too toxic in a primary (he had gone on the record and said he would vote for conviction in a hypothetical impeachment trial in May and in June), and as a result DeWit, the only other Statewide elected official running won (disappointing Democrats) with 35% of the vote to Flake's 33%, Salmon's 26% and Ward's 15%. Democrats, hoping to use the turmoil, and the anti-Trump mood (The President was not popular in Arizona) nominated former Congresswoman Krysten Sinema (who reversed her decision on whether to run or not five times before announcing in January) with no opposition. Sinema came under heavy attack for opposing the war on terror, for being "anti-religion" and for her sexuality, but the mood against Trump was just too strong as Democrats earned a key pickup with a 48-47 win for Simena.

Doug Ducey, unlike Flake was reasonably popular, but an Anti-Trump midterm was going to give him problems. Democrats nominated Phoenix Mayor (well, former because of Arizona's resign to-run laws) Greg Stanton, over two weaker opponents with 77% of the vote. While the race was close, the anti-Trump mood weighed around Ducey like an anvil, giving Democrats their fourth pickup of the night,, with a 49-45 Gordon victory.

Three House Districts were competitive in 2018, two targeted by Republicans, and one by Democrats. The Democratic target belonged to Martha McSally, who quickly got into a quagmire by refusing to commit one way or another to impeaching President Trump. They nominated former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (who represented a neighboring district until 2016, when she was the Democrats nominee against John McCain), and the anti-Trump mood guided Kirkpatrick to a 50-47 victory over McSally.

Of the Republican targets, the first one was the seat Kyrsten Simena was vacated in her successful Senate bid. They nominated (Former) Maricopa County Supervisor Denny Barney, while Democrats nominated (Former) Tempe Mayor Mark Mitchell. The Anti-Trump mood was simply too strong, as Mitchell held the district 54-43.

The other seat belonged to Tom O'Halleran, who deflected rumors that he would retire after one term (or run for another office, such as Attorney General). He faced (Former) State Senator Steve Smith in the General Election. Once again, the anti-Trump mood led to a hold for the Democrats, as O'Halleran won 49-47.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Ten

Wisconsin

Republicans thought Tammy Baldwin was vulnerable, largely based on Donald Trump and Ron Johnson's victories two years prior. They had a contested primary between Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, State Representative Dale Kooyenga, State Senator Duey Stroebel, and Businessman Eric Hovde (who ran for this seat in 2012, and finished second in the primary). Hovde attacked everyone (but especially Kleefisch) for not being conservative enough, but did not gain as much traction as he did in 2012. Kleefisch won the primary with 35% of the vote to 26% for Stroebel, 20% for Kooyenga and 16% for Hovde. While the general election started off close, a Super PAC supporting Kleefisch ran a negative ad attacking Baldwin for her sexuality (Baldwin is a lesbian, and the ad stated that her "gay agenda" would destroy Wisconsin and American families). Kleefisch refused to disavow the ad or the Super PAC, which was funded by Jaime Dimon, and created by Fred Davis (best known for Carly Fiorina's demon sheep ad, and attempting to drag Reverend Wright into the 2012 Presidential race), and that turned a close race into a blowout. Baldwin won easily 55-40.

Scott Walker was a political survivor, having lasted through close campaigns in 2012 and 2014 (not to mention his initial 2010 win), and despite his embarrassing performance in the 2016 Presidential race, and lack of support for President Trump (he had originally endorsed Ted Cruz, and stated to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he supported impeaching Trump back in June), he was setting himself up for a run for the Presidency in 2024 (or 2020 against Pence). Democrats wanted to knock him out here and now, however their A-list candidates (Peter Barca, Ron Kind, Marc Pocan) declined to run, leaving a crowded field looking to take Walker on. They were, State Senator Kathleen Vinehout, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, Former Ambassador to Greece and Belarus Daniel Speckhard, State Representative Gordon Hintz, State Senator Jon Erpenbach and former State Party Chair Matt Flynn (he ran for the House in 1978, 1988 and 2004, and the Senate in 1986). Vinehout had the most statewide name recognition, and as a result won the low turnout primary (only 204,378 voters showed up) with 30.3% of the vote to Soglin's 18.7%, Erpenbach's 17%, Hintz's 13%, Speckhard's 13% and Flynn's 7.7%. Walker was not especially popular (41-45), and Kleefisch's collapse in the Senate race, plus President Trump's slide in the Badger State, led to Democrats gaining a fifth Governor's mansion, as Vinehout defeated Walker 49-48 (though the race wouldn't be called until November 8, and Walker would not concede until November 10).

Several House races were considered interesting from some standpoint. The first race was in Paul Ryan's district. Speaker Ryan like many in House leadership in recent years faced a primary challenge, in this case from Delavan Common Councilman Ron Henriott. Unlike Eric Cantor in 2014, Ryan took his opponent seriously, and defeated Henriott 60-39. Democrats also had a contested primary, between Racine Mayor John Dickert and Kenosha County Executive James Krueser, two very strong candidates. Krueser won the primary (most of the advertising was focused on Ryan) 51-47. Krueser's campaign attacked Ryan on his refusal to impeach President Trump, his pushing for the passage of the AHCA and the Republican Tax Bill, and suggesting to the Washington Post that Trump's removal could result in "civil war" on August 16 (a completely reasonable statement given the passion on both sides, but inflammatory to both sides as well). Kruesser gave the Democrats the sweetest victory of all (besides defeating Trump), knocking off Ryan 50-48.

The second seat belonged to Ron Kind. Kind considered vacating the seat to run for Governor, but ultimately chose to stay put, and faced a likely stiff Republican challenge. Republicans nominated former State Assemblyman Robin Kreibich without opposition. However Kreibich hadn't faced a competitive race since 2006 (which he lost), and the Republicans struggles at the top of the ballot didn't help either. Kind held on to the seat by comfortable 55-42 margin.

Third up, was Jim Sensenbrunner's seat. Sensenbrunner decided to retire after nineteen terms in Congress, announcing his decision in December 2017. Republicans had a contested primary between Fort Atkinson City Councilman Paul Kotz and Waukesha County Sherriff Eric Severson. Severson did not live in the district and was attacked for being a carpetbagger. However, he won the primary 54-44. Democrats nominated Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ (who had contemplated a run for Governor, then Attorney General, before deciding to run here). While Happ ran a solid campaign, the partisan lean of the district was just too strong for her to be competitive, and as a result Severson won 58-38.

Finally, there was Glenn Grothmann's seat, which Grothmann was vacating to run for Lieutenant Governor (he won the primary, but the Walker/Grothmann ticket lost in November). Republicans nominated Green Lake County Board of Supervisors member Michael Starshak, who defeated a no-name Democrat by only a 57-41 margin, largely attributable to the top of the ticket's performance.

Iowa

With Terry Branstad now Ambassador to China, Kim Reynolds was elevated to Governor's mansion. Unlike Kay Ivey in Alabama, Reynolds decided to run for a full term in her own right, and avoided any primary opposition (despite rumors of a challenge from Steve King). Democrats had a primary battle between State Senator Nate Boulton, State Representative Todd Prichard, Former Tom Vilsack Chief of Staff John Norris, Former State Party Chairwoman Andy McGuire and Former State Senator Steve Sodders. The primary was relatively civil, with the only attacks centered around Norris's support of online gambling instate (and most of those were from Reynolds-allied Super PAC's). Prichard won the primary with 34% of the vote to Boulton's 29%, Sodders's 20%, Norris's 10%, and McGuire's 6%. Reynolds was an unelected Governor, and President Trump's popularity had slipped (to 44-44), leading to a Prichard victory 51-47.8, and the sixth Gubernatorial pickup in 2018.

Multiple House districts were up for grabs in the Hawkeye State. The first belonged to Rod Blum, who was targeted by Democrats. They nominated State Representative Abby Finkenauer. With President Trump's declining popularity, Finkenauer was able to give Democrats another pickup 50-45.

Democrats also targeted David Young, nominating State Senator Janet Peterson without a fight. Trump's slide hurt Young as well, and Peterson ended up giving Democrats another gain 50-48.

Republicans for their part, targeted Dave Loebsack, nominating State Representative Bobby Kaufmann. Trump's slumping approval ratings hurt Kuafmann's chances to pick up the seat, and Loebsack ended up holding it for Democrats 53-45.

Wyoming

John Barrasso was one of the safest incumbents in the country, period, and he defeated a weak Democrat 77-20.

Matt Mead was term-limited and most expected a crowded Republican primary to replace him. However, only Secretary of State Ed Murray and former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis ran in the primary, with Murray winning most of the endorsements, and ultimately the primary 58-40. Democrats nominated former State Representative Mary Thorne without opposition, but she had no chance in a deep red (atlas blue) state. Murray won 72-24.

Wyoming's lone House district re-elected Liz Cheney unopposed.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Eleven

Nebraska

Deb Fischer was a particularly safe incumbent, as Nebraska was one of President Trump's best states in 2016. Democrats nominated former Lieutenant Governor Kim Robak, but she faced a difficult challenge in facing a popular incumbent, with President Trump being popular, plus having not run in a competitive election since 1994. Fischer won 62-35.

Pete Ricketts saw his popularity slide, largely because he vetoed a bill that would have paid for body cameras for the Omaha and Lincoln police departments, which was overridden by the State Senate. He faced several two primary challengers in former Governor Dave Heineman and State Senator Robert "Bob" Krist. Heineman and Ricketts traded fire throughout much of the primary season, leading Krist to briefly rise in polls, before making a major gaffe (he told Fox News that Democrats were " a malevolent evil"), and falling back. The major problem for Ricketts was that Heineman was still popular (54-38 approvals, according to PPP), significantly conservative, and none of Ricketts's negative ads were doing anything to convince voters otherwise. Heineman knocked off Ricketts with 42% of the vote to 37% for Ricketts and 13.6% for Krist. Democrats did not run a strong candidate, and Heineman won 71-28 in November.


One Nebraska House District drew interest from observers. Democrats targeted Don Bacon's district. Bacon, however, announced he would not run for re-election in late November 2017. Republicans instead nominated former Attorney General Jon Bruning (who was essentially carpetbagging over). Democrats faced him with Omaha City Councilman Chris Jerram, who faced a challenge going up against a former statewide officeholder with significant name recognition. Bruning's refusal to support President Trump's impeachment didn't really hurt him here. Jerram ran a textbook-perfect campaign, but he was badly outspent, and the DCCC was forced to triage this race in Early October. Bruning earned Republicans an important hold, even as they were losing many races elsewhere, 54-43.

Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren was widely considered a lock to join Tom Daschle in the 2020 Presidential field. First, however she had to win re-election in the ocean blue (atlas-red) state of Massachusetts. Republicans, desperate to knock her out of the ring, tried to recruit Charlie Baker with no success. Instead they had a primary between Businessman Shiva Ayyadurai, former State Representative Daniel Winslow and Former Governor William Weld (Libertarians did not nominate a candidate, instead telling their supporters to vote for Weld should he make it to the general election). Weld had the highest name recognition, being the Libertarian nominee for VP in 2016, a former Governor and a former Senate nominee (against John Kerry in 1996). Despite Ayyadurai's spending $7.3 million on the primary, Weld used his name recognition to win with 63% of the vote to 26% for Ayyadurai and 9.8% for Winslow. The general likely would have been somewhat competitive if Trump was somewhat popular, or if Clinton had won in 2018, but neither of those things were true and Warren won 61-38.

Charlie Baker was popular and Massachusetts's top Democrats (Maura Healey,  Joseph Kennedy III, Katherine Clark, Seth Moulton, even John Kerry) declined to run. Instead, Democrats had a contested primary between former State Secretary of Administration and Finance Jay Gonzalez, Entrepreneur Bob Massie, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, Former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Somerville Mayor Joseph Curtalone. No one really had significant name recognition, and polls consistently showed large numbers of undecided voters (one taken by Garin-Hart-Yang three weeks before the primary, on behalf of Warren, showed 65% of voters were undecided). Ultimately Warren, who showed the most consistent lead (and racked up the most endorsements, including from Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, as well Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden), won the primary with 26% of the vote to 17% for Wolf, 15% for Driscoll, 14% for Curtalone, 14% for Massie and 13% for Gonzalez. Baker was still popular heading into the general election, but Trump's abysmal approvals (PPP showed him with approval ratings of 30-61 in Massachusetts), felt like a bowling ball dropped from the roof of the Prudential Tower. Warren defeated Baker 49-47, for Democrats seventh Gubernatorial pickup.

Only one House seat in Massachusetts drew attention, as Stephen Lynch drew a primary challenge from video game programmer Brianna Wu. Wu attacked Lynch for not being progressive enough, but she didn't fit the district well. Lynch survived his challenge 56-43, and went on to defeat a marginal Republican 66-31 in November.

[Edgeofnight]

Can see Baker losing when he has 75% approval ratings, and as a Democrat from Lynch's district I can't see Wu doing very well against Lynch at all.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Can see Baker losing when he has 75% approval ratings, and as a Democrat from Lynch's district I can't see Wu doing very well against Lynch at all.

Welcome to the forum!

[Edgeofnight]

Can see Baker losing when he has 75% approval ratings, and as a Democrat from Lynch's district I can't see Wu doing very well against Lynch at all.

Welcome to the forum!

Thanks!

[NewYorkExpress]

Can see Baker losing when he has 75% approval ratings, and as a Democrat from Lynch's district I can't see Wu doing very well against Lynch at all.

Trump was that unpopular, and it helped that Warren was doing really well as well.

[Edgeofnight]

Can see Baker losing when he has 75% approval ratings, and as a Democrat from Lynch's district I can't see Wu doing very well against Lynch at all.

Trump was that unpopular, and it helped that Warren was doing really well as well.

I'm not trying to start an argument, its your timeline. I just think that Baker is insulated enough from Trump to keep his numbers up.

[Cactus Jack]

I get the sense that this timeline is perhaps a little self-indulgent, but who cares? This is entertaining stuff.

I might also add that Owen King is an absolutely inspired pick for ME-2.

[NewYorkExpress]

I get the sense that this timeline is perhaps a little self-indulgent, but who cares? This is entertaining stuff.

I might also add that Owen King is an absolutely inspired pick for ME-2.

Thanks... King is a possible candidate for Governor in 2022, if I go that far in the future, and he'll probably write a (fictional) book about his experiences as well.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Twelve

Minnesota

Republicans thought they could derail Amy Klobuchar's presidential chances by defeating her in 2018. To that end, they nominated Former Governor Tim Pawlenty to face her (he had last been seen running for President in 2012, dropping out after a disappointing finish in the last ever Iowa Straw Poll). While the race started out close, as Trump's approvals declined (from 43-42 in September 2017, when Pawlenty announced, to 33-51 in CNN's exit poll) so did Pawlenty's chances of winning. Klobuchar won 49-44 (the Independence Party candidate earning 4.6% of the vote), her lowest share of the vote ever, and her closest margin of victory since being elected Hennipen County Attorney in 1998.

Mark Dayton's diagnosis of prostate cancer in January 2017 meant he would not run for re-election (as of election day 2018, he was still in treatment but his prognosis was good). Democrats had a crowded field to replace him, with the candidates being Auditor Rebecca Otto, Congressman Tim Walz, Saint Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, State Representative Paul Thissen, State Representative Erin Murphy and State Representative Tina Liebling. Of the six candidates, Walz, Coleman and Otto advanced past the convention to the Primary. Walz came under fire from national Democrats (especially Nancy Pelosi and Ben Ray Lujan) for abandoning a House seat Trump won for a gamble at best. Otto won the primary with 46.4% of the vote to 32.6% for and 21% for Coleman. Republicans also had a crowded field, the candidates being State Representative Matt Dean, Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman (the nominee for Governor in 2014 against Dayton), Ramsey County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, State Representative Sarah Anderson, State Senator Michelle Benson, State Party Chairman Keith Downey, Former State Senator Amy Koch, Businessman Mike McFadden (the nominee for Senate in 2014 against Al Franken) and former Dakota County Judge Mary Pawlenty (wife of Tim Pawlenty, the former Governor, who was running for Senate). Of the nine candidates, Anderson, Benson, Koch, McFadden and Pawlenty advanced past the to the primary. Pawlenty was attacked for the possibility of being an absentee Governor (Her husband was the Republican nominee for the Senate), but had the name recognition to win, if her husband wasn't the nominee for the Senate. Koch won the primary with 33% of the vote to 30.6% for Pawlenty, 17% for McFadden, 12% for Benson and 7.4% for Anderson. The General Election was upended by the independent campaign of Former Governor Jesse Ventura, who made the race a true three-way battle and held the lead at several points during the summer. However, Otto won the race with 31% of the vote to 29.72% for Ventura and 28.08 for Koch (The Independence Party nominee earned 11.3% of the vote, earning them major party status for the first time since losing it in 2014).

Several Congressional seats were up for grabs in the Land of Ten of Thousand Lakes. First up was the seat being vacated by Tim Walz, which had swung heavily towards Republicans in 2016. Republicans nominated State Representative Tony Cornish (who at 70, was not expected to serve more than a term or two), while Democrats nominated Former State Senator Vicki Jensen (Jensen, who was over twenty-five years younger was expected to serve many more terms than Cornish). President Trump's middling approval ratings were unhelpful here, and voters wanted Jensen's prospective seniority in the House over Cornish's smaller potential seniority. Jensen won 51-48.

Next was Jason Lewis's seat, which was targeted by Democrats. They nominated State Representative Laurie Halvorson to face him. Halvorson hit Lewis on his support for the AHCA and for opposing the impeachment of President Trump, and was able to give Democrats another pickup 50-45.

Third was Erik Paulsen's seat, which was also targeted by Democrats. Former State Senator and 2014 nominee Terri Bonoff ran again, and secured the nomination against three opponents with 67% of the vote. Bonoff made an issue of Paulsen's vote in favor of the AHCA and the Republicans Tax Bill, and with districts shift left (Hillary had won it by ten points in 2016), made it tough sledding for Paulsen. Like Aimee Belgard, in New Jersey, the second time was the charm for Bonoff, as she defeated Paulsen 53-44.

Fourth was Collin Petersen's district which Republican's targeted. The district had shifted to the right over the years, to the point in which it gave President Trump 62% of the vote. Republicans nominated State Representative Tim Miller to face him. Unlike in most races this year, the Republicans had the advantage the whole way through, and in a rare bright spot for Republicans, Miller knocked off Petersen 49-47.8%.

Finally, Republicans targeted Rick Nolan, who flirted with a run for Governor before backing down. Republicans nominated former Congressman Chip Craavack to face him. The race was competitive all the way through, but Craavack, was a flawed candidate, and got into hot water for a August DUI arrest. Nolan won a difficult a hold 50-48.7, over Craavack.

Illinois

Bruce Rauner was in the middle of a protracted budget fight with the Illinois Legislature that had lasted for almost three years. Several Democrats lined up to challenge him, headlined by State Senator Daniel Biss, Madison County Superintendent of Schools Bob Daiber, State Representative Chris Drury, Former Director of CeaseFire (now Cure Violence) Tio Hardiman, Former Chair of the University of Illinois Board of Trustees Chris Kennedy (a member of that Kennedy family), Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar, and Venture Capitalist J.B Pritzker. Pritzker and Kennedy started as the frontrunners, but both had serious flaws. Prtizker had been caught discussing the open Senate seat of 2009 with Rod Blagojevich (as well as the position of Treasurer), while Kennedy was a dynasty candidate, with all the flaws that entailed. While those two attacked each other, Biss rose up in the polls, ultimately winning the primary with 29% of the vote to 24% for Kennedy, 22% for Pritzker, 12% for Pawar, 7% for Drury, 6% for Hardiman and 4.2% for Daiber. Rauner's unpopularity (27-59), plus President Trump's (32-54) meant that despite Rauner vastly outspending Biss (he spent $35 million personally on the race, on new record, while Biss only was able to raise and spend $13 million), he (Rauner) faced stiff winds against him, similar to those coming off Lake Michigan in the winter. Biss gave Democrats their eighth Gubernatorial Pickup, 51-47.

Multiple House Districts drew interest in the Land of Lincoln. First up was Dan Lipinski, who faced a primary challenge from Marie Newman (who was basically an unknown quantity). Lipinski was attacked for his pro-life stance, and anti-same sex marriage stance, but his seniority was seen as an asset, and he ultimately turned back his challenge 50-47. Republicans nominated former Cook County Supervisor Tony Peraica to face Lipinski. Republicans ran ads against Lipinski, stating that if voters wanted Republican-lite, they should vote for a Republican. The idea almost worked, as Lipinski's seat was put in play. However, the national mood was in favor of the Democrats, as Lipinski hung on 50-48.

The second district was Peter Roskam's district, which was targeted by the Democrats. They nominated Chicago Heights City Councilwoman/Alderwoman Sonia Perez. With Trump's approvals sinking, the difficulty level was high, and Perez gave Democrats another gain 50-48.

The third district was Rodney Davis's, which was targeted by the Democrats. Democrats nominated State Senator Andy Manar, who proceeded to pummel Davis for his votes in favor of the AHCA and his opposition to impeaching President Trump. Manar gave Democrats another gain 51-48.

The fourth district was Randy Hultgren's, which was targeted by the Democrats. They nominated former Miss Illinois USA Jill Gulseth, who came under fire from liberals for not actually being a registered Democrat (she was an Independent). Hulseth, who technically was running as an independent campaign, with the promise of caucusing with the Democrats trailed in the polls all the way through, as Hultgren hung on, despite horrid results for Republicans elsewhere, 51-47.

The final seat was Cheri Bustos's, which was targeted by Republicans. They nominated Galena City Councilman/Alderman Todd Lincoln to face her. While in a more neutral environment, Bustos might well have been defeated, Trump was not popular here, and as a result Bustos was able to hold the seat 50-47.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Thirteen

Oklahoma

Mary Fallin was term-limited, and suffered declining popularity. However, President Trump remained popular here, and multiple Republicans filed to replace her. They were, Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb, Auditor Gary Jones, Former US Attorney for the Eastern District of Oklahoma Gary Richardson (under President Reagan) and Former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett (he had retired after the 2017 elections). After an expensive primary (a total of $17 million was spent between the four candidate), Lamb and Cornett advanced to the runoff with 33.7% and 31.3% respectively, Jones earning 26% and Richardson 9%. The runoff was a see-saw battle, but Cornett was able to tie Lamb to the unpopular Fallin, allowing him to win in a thriller 50.7-49.3, though Lamb didn't concede for seventeen days. Democrats also had a contested primary, between Former Attorney General Drew Edmonson, State Representative Scott Inman, Former State Senator Connie Johnson (the nominee for Senate in 2014 against James Lankford) and Former Attorney General Mike Turpen. Despite Johnson having better name recognition due to her relatively recent statewide run,  Inman and Edmonson advanced from the primary to the runoff with 40% and 32% of the vote respectively followed by Johnson with 17% and Turpen with 11%. This was also a close runoff, but Inman won it 51.2-48.8%, and it only took Edmonson six days to concede (eleven fewer than Lamb). The general election was not expected to be competitive, despite Fallin's unpopularity (40-47 in a mid October YouGov poll), and Cornett indeed won 59-39.

A pair of Oklahoma House races had a peripheral interest to Beltway insiders. Jim Bridenstine announced his retirement early, citing a pledge to only serve three terms, and ultimately filed for Lieutenant Governor (a race he won). Several credible Republicans ran. They were, State Representative T.W Shannon, Former Tulsa Mayor Dewey Bartlett and Insurance Commissioner John Doak. While Doak was a statewide officeholder, the NRCC preferred Shannon, and he ultimately won the primary without the need for a runoff, earning 55% of the vote to Doak's 30% and Bartlett's 15%. Shannon was then elected unopposed in November.

The other seat was belonged to Markwayne Mullin, who went back on a promise to serve only three terms and promptly drew a primary challenge from State Senator Josh Breechen. Breechen received the endorsements of Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin and Mike Lee, and was able to upset Mullin in the primary 51-48(though Mullin didn't concede for four days). Democrats were able to attract a serious candidate in Cherokee Nation Chief Bill John Baker, however he was unable to attract attention from anyone outside of a select few in the Beltway, as Breechen won 59-40.

New York

Kirsten Gillibrand was yet another likely 2020 Presidential candidate, and Republicans had little hope of beating her in a deep blue (Atlas-red) state. They nominated controversial (at best) Businessman and Activist Carl Paladino, who had been the nominee for Governor in 2010 against Andrew Cuomo (he'd gotten slaughtered). Paladino quickly got himself into hot water by threatening to do bodily harm to Gillibrand's campaign manager. Gillibrand herself stayed above it all, and refused to debate Paladino. Gillibrand won by a record margin 72-26.

Like Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo was viewed as a likely 2020 Presidential candidate. Unlike Gillibrand he was viewed with mistrust by the Democratic base. As a result, Cuomo faced primary challengers from the left for the second cycle in a row. They were New York City Public Advocate Letitia James and Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (Miner was not eligible for re-election in 2017). Cuomo was bashed like a piñata by both Miner and James (but especially by James), and, after $61 million in spending, much of it by outside groups, lost the primary, delighting liberals. James emerged the winner with 37% (largely on the strength of her support in New York City), to Cuomo's 35% and Miner's 27.1%. Republicans, delighted by the turmoil on the Democratic side, nominated Congressman Peter King. While King had serious flaws (his past support for the Irish Republican Army), he was a stronger candidate in Long Island than James, and was capable of carrying upstate as well. As a result, Republicans had a rare bright spot in a Gubernatorial race, as King eeked out a victory to pick up a seat 50-48 (if you include cross-endorsements from New York's various minor parties).

Many House races were being targeted by one side or the other in the Empire State. First up was Lee Zeldin's seat. Democrats nominated former Suffolk County Legislator Vivian Viloria-Fisher to face him. While Zeldin's seat had lurched to the right since he had last won it, Trump was not popular here, and as a result Viloria-Fisher added another gain for Democrats 50-46.

Next was the seat being vacated by Peter King in successful Gubernatorial bid. Republicans nominated Hempstead Town Councilwoman Erin King-Sweeney (who happened to be a relative of Peter King's), while Democrats nominated Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone. While under most circumstances this district would not be competitive (Peter King won it 58-40), Bellone was a strong candidate, and President Trump was unpopular, creating a potent storm. Bellone won 49-48.

Third was Tom Suozzi's seat. Republicans targeted Suozzi early, but struggled to find a quality candidate, ultimately nominating Former State Assemblywoman Donna Ferrara. Ferrara was rusty as a candidate, having not run a race since 2002, and ultimately that proved to be her undoing as Suozzi won 55-44.

Next was Dan Donovan's seat. Democrats were being hopeful when they targeted Donovan, and they nominated Former New York City Councilwoman Debi Rose (who was term-limited in the 2017 elections). Rose had some minor ethical flaws, and they were just enough to keep her out of the winner's circle. Donovan held the seat for Republicans 51-48.

Fifth was Sean Patrick Maloney's district. Republican targeted Maloney, and nominated Former Congresswoman Nan Hayworth for a rubber match. Some saw this as a Shea-Porter/Giunta or Schneider/Dold sort of situation, and their thoughts were proven true when Hayworth unseated Patrick Maloney (as King carried the district 50-49 and Gillibrand carried it 80-19) by a margin of 49.1-48.7, one of only a few bright spots for Republicans.

Sixth was John Faso's seat. Democrats nominated Ulster County Executive Mike Hein after a crowded primary (with 58% of the vote against six opponents), and Hein quickly made an issue of Faso's votes for the AHCA and Republican Tax Bill. Hein won in November 50.2-48.7

Seventh was Elise Stefaniik's District. Democrats nominated Plattsburgh City Councilman Joshua Kretsur, but he was fighting a partial headwind (King carried the district 60-39, while Gillibrand won by only a 65-31 margin), meaning Republicans, earned an important hold as Stefanik won 50-46.

Eighth was Claudia Tenney's seat. Democrats nominated Utica Mayor Robert Palmeri, but like with Stefanik, King did well here, winning the district 58-40 (Gillibrand also did well winning the district 79-19). As a result, Tenney was able to hold the seat for Republicans 49-47.

Last but not least (at least for the Empire State) was Chris Collins's district. Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul, and despite King's strong performance (he won the district 57-41), Hochul's profile as a statewide officeholder was able to draw attention and resources, allowing her to give Democrats another gain 48-47.7%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is so fun to read! Your knowledge and research on every one of these races makes it a delight to read, keep it up!

[NewYorkExpress]

This is so fun to read! Your knowledge and research on every one of these races makes it a delight to read, keep it up!

Thanks...However, I admit to mostly using Wikipedia, so knowledge and research don't apply here.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Fourteen

Nevada

Dean Heller was in big trouble, a Republican in a state moving quickly towards Democrats. While businessman and perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian made noises about challenging Heller, the NRSC talked him into running for Attorney General instead. Democrats nominated Congresswoman Jackie Rosen (89% of the vote against two other candidates). Heller was mercilessly attacked for his votes for Justices Gorsuch and Sykes, plus his vote for the AHCA by both Rosen and outside groups supporting Rosen. Rosen also got a boost by coming out in favor of regulated online poker in Mid-March 2018, which earned support from every Las Vegas based casino mogul except for Sheldon Adelson, and many poker professionals (Among the pros campaigning for Rosen were Brian Rast, Phil Ivey and Allen Cunningham). Rosen walked away the winner 49-39 (the "None of These Candidates" option garnering 10.8% of the vote).

Brian Sandoval was term-limited, and despite a failed nomination to the Supreme Court, he was determined to exit on a high note. Republicans nominated Attorney General Adam Laxalt with minimal opposition (88% of the vote against one opponent). Democrats, meanwhile had a contested primary between Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, Clark County Commissioner Christina Gianchgilani, and Businessman Stephen Cloobeck. While Cloobeck started with a money advantage (he ultimately self-funded to the tune of $7.34 million), he quickly came under fire from the left for donating to multiple Republicans (Dean Heller, Charlie Baker and Adam Laxalt), and never really got traction. Sisolak and Gianchgliani traded the lead back and forth for months, but Sisolak's name recognition ultimately put him on top with 45% of the vote to Gianchgliani's 42% and Cloobeck's 6%. Republicans were banking on Laxalt's statewide name recognition to hold the Governor's seat, but it was not to be as President Trump's immigration policies caused record Hispanic turnout (which also helped Jackie Rosen, a favorite against Heller, but helped Sisolak, who was an underdog against Laxalt more), leading to a Sisolak win 47-45 (the "None of These Candidates" option earned 6.6% of the vote). Laxalt's campaign manager outright stated that there was voter fraud involved, including undocumented immigrants voting, which earned a smackdown from Sisolak, and a denial from Dean Heller and his campaign manager (Laxalt however, merely put out statement saying that "I do not believe any voter voted in this race illegally")

Almost all of the Silver State's House Districts earned interest from the Beltway crowd. First was Mark Amodei's district. Amodei faced a primary challenge from former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (the 2010 nominee for Senate against Harry Reid). Angle tried to paint Amodei as a RINO, a difficult task, and ultimately Amodei won the primary 53-46. Democrats nominated Reno City Councilman David Bobzein, a strong candidate for a relatively Republican district. While Bobzein and his supporters rued that Angle did not win the GOP primary, he was quickly able to close the gap, as Amodei didn't take his opponent seriously. In addition, the sharp increase in Hispanic turnout made things even more difficult for Amodei, and as a result Bobzein shocked everyone by defeating Amodei 50-48.88%

Jackie Rosen's run for Senate left open her House seat, and it was expected to be fiercely battled for by both sides. Republicans nominated State Assemblwoman Melissa Woodbury, while Democrats nominated Former Controller Deborah "Kim" Wallin. Wallin, who did not live in the district, was attacked as a carpetbagger (she moved into the district on January 17, 2018, fifteen days after declaring her candidacy), but here too the increase in Hispanic voters hurt Republicans, as Wallin held the seat for Democrats 51-47.

Republicans targeted Rueben Kihuen, and convinced Former Congressman Cresent Hardy to run a rematch. Some, like John King and Michelle Malkin saw the matchup as having the potential of a Dold/Schneider, Shea-Porter/Giunta or Hayworth/Sean Patrick Maloney scenario. Unlike the last matchup, the dynamics were against them, especially with the increased Hispanic turnout. Kihuen won going away 56-42.

Tennessee

Bob Corker was considered a safe incumbent...if he won re-nomination. He faced a primary challenge from controversial (and that's being polite) State Senator Mark Green. Green's long list of controversial statements, which had cost him the position of Secretary of the Army, came back to bite him again (among the more safe for work ones was that his duty as a State Senator was to "crush evil"), and Corker won the primary 61-38.2% Democrats thought they had an excellent candidate in Country Music Superstar Tim McGraw, however he was untested as a candidate, mistrusted by progressives (Daily Kos notably did not endorse him), and despite self-funding to the tune of $13 million, was unable to make the race competitive. Corker won 58-39.

Bill Haslam was term-limited as Governor and despite speculation that Bob Corker would run (with Haslam running for Senate), this did not come to pass. Republicans faced a competitive primary between State Senator Mae Beavers, Former U.S Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez (currently serving as the Dean of Belmont University's College of Law), Former Congressman Stephen Fincher and Rutherford County Assessor Rob Mitchell. Gonzalez had major flaws, but he easily had the most name recognition, and the base, which disliked him was unable to coalesce around a single candidate allowing him to win the primary with 53% of the vote to Fincher's 31%, Beaver's 12% and Mitchell's 3.1%. Democrats, meanwhile nominated Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean without a struggle. While Gonzalez was unpopular with progressives due to his service in the W. Bush Administration and Dean was able to make the race competitive as a result, the Volunteer State was just too Red (Atlas Blue) for Dean to win. Gonzalez won by an embarrassingly close 52-46 margin.

Only one Congressional District drew any interest in Tennessee. John Duncan retired after serving since 1988. Republicans had a crowded primary, but only one candidate had prior electoral experience, and that was Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, who defeated a seven candidate field with 48% of the vote. He then defeated a marginal Democrat in the General Election 57-40.  

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Fifteen

Connecticut

Chris Murphy was a relatively inoffensive incumbent, and a reliable progressive to the outside world, which was why it shocked many when he drew a primary challenge from founder of the Hartford Guardian Ann-Marie Adams. Adams attacked Murphy for being an ineffective legislator, but she never gained traction and Murphy won easily 67-32. Republicans, meanwhile found a strong candidate to run here in Former Governor Jodi Rell. Rell backed convicting President Trump in an impeachment trial, but Trump's unpopularity ultimately sank her in the race, as Murphy won 57-41.

Dannel Malloy was extremely unpopular, and as such he chose not to run for a third term in April 2017. Democrats had a crowded primary between Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman, Comptroller Kevin Lembo, New Haven Mayor Toni Harp and Middletown Mayor Dan Drew. Under State Law, any candidate who received 15% of the vote at the convention could get into a primary. Wyman won the party's endorsement with 39% of the vote and everyone earned at least 15% (Drew, at the bottom earned 16%) of the vote. In the primary, Wyman's three opponents tried to tie her to the unpopular Malloy and the DGA (over Malloy's objections) endorsed Lembo. Lembo would win the primary with 35% of the vote to Wyman's 31%, Drew's 18% and Harp's 15.85%. Republicans also had a contested primary between Former Coventry Town Councilman Micah Weiltukonis, Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst (the nominee for Treasurer in 2014, losing to Denise Nappier), Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, State Representative Prasad Srinivasan, State Senator Toni Boucher, Former State Senator John McKinney and State Senator Tony Hwang. Weilkutonis, Herbst and Lauretti were eliminated at the convention (which Boucher won), leaving four to fight it out in the primary (Herbst tried to petition his way on, but failed to even make it halfway to the requirement). McKinney received the endorsement of the RGA after the primary, and emerged on top with 37% of the vote to Boucher's 30%, Hwang's 20% and Sinrivasan's 12.9%. The race was a dueling battleground between President Trump's unpopularity (McKinney, preferring to keep the race on local issues, took no position on Trump), and Malloy's unpopularity (Malloy hit a low approval rating of 18-74 in a poll taken by Quinnipiac between October 25 and October 27). Ultimately, Malloy's embarrassingly low approval, and McKinney's strategy of keeping the race focused on local issues worked out, as McKinney won 50-48.6, for the second Republican gain of the night.

One House seat drew interest in the Nutmeg State. Republicans briefly targeted Elizabeth Esty, nominating Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (who had been talked into running for this seat instead of for Governor, which he had been exploring, by the NRCC). While the race briefly tightened over the summer, Boughton's refusal to commit to impeaching Trump, allowed Esty to pull away and win 56-43,

Alaska

Bill Walker had offended almost everyone in both parties during his tenure as Governor, and so he decided in November 2017 not to run for re-election. Republicans nominated Former Governor Sean Parnell (after several other candidates declined to run), while Democrats nominated Former Senator Mark Begich in a high-profile showdown. Parnell lost for much the same reasons as four years prior, as Begich gave Democrats their tenth Gubernatorial pickup 44-43 (With Joe Miller, running as a Libertarian earning 15%).

National Republicans persuaded controversial Representative Don Young to retire after serving since 1973. They now nominated State Representative Charles "Mike" Chenault, while Democrats nominated Former State Senator Hollis French (who had briefly been the nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2014). While French certainly could have won if Young was on the ballot, Chenault was a fresh face, and less controversial, and thus was able to win 55-42.

[NewYorkExpress]

2018 Midterm Elections-Part Sixteen

Florida

Bill Nelson was, for the second cycle in a row, considered a vulnerable incumbent, this time because President Trump had won Florida (albeit by a narrow margin), and because of speculation that he might face a primary challenge. Indeed Nelson, drew a significant opponent in the Democratic Primary, in State Senator Randolph Bracy, who hit Nelson from the left on taxes, health care and race relations. Nelson was skittish enough to agree to three debates with Bracy, which worked out, when Bracy said at the third debate in Miami, that he would support cutting off aid to Israel, offending an important constituency in Florida. Nelson ended up winning easily 64-32. Republicans meanwhile, nominated the candidate Nelson feared most, Rick Scott, the incumbent Governor. While Scott was controversial as Governor, he could self-fund (he ended up spending a total of $98 million, much of that being his own money), and that made the difference in the hotly contested Senate race, as Scott defeated Nelson 49-47, for Republicans fourth Senate gain of the night.

Rick Scott was term-limited as Governor, and mounting a successful campaign for the Senate anyways. Republicans had a crowded primary, but only three candidates had previous electoral experience. They were, Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam, Former Congressman David Jolly and State Senator Jack Latavla. Putnam and Jolly quickly separated themselves from the field, and were dueling for the lead almost from moment of Jolly's announcement in October 2017. However, Putnam's fundraising advantage (he raised $32 million for the primary alone, compared to Jolly's $17 million, and Latvala's $11 million) gave him a win with 34% of the vote to 25% for Jolly and 20% for Latvala (with five other candidates splitting 21% of the vote). Democrats also had a contested primary as well, between Former Congressman Gwen Graham (daughter of former Senator Bob Graham), Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillium, Businessman Chris King, and prominent Trial Lawyer John Morgan. Graham got flack for being a dynasty candidate (mostly from Gillium), while Morgan was under fire because his firm had been barred from a class-action suit in 2012 for unprofessional behavior, and an attorney at his firm had been sued for sexually harassing a client in January 2018 (as of election day, that case had been settled for $7 million). Graham won the primary with 44% of the vote, to Gillum's 30%, King's 16% and Morgan's 9.7%. The General election was closely competitive, but Scott's narrow coattails were able to extend the Democrats losing streak in Florida Gubernatorial races, as Putnam won 48-47.

Multiple House seats drew interest in the Sunshine State. First up was Stephanie Murphy's district. Republicans nominated State Representative Mike Miller, a candidate who had won convincingly on Democratic turf. However, his refusal to commit to impeaching President Trump (he claimed that there would be no majority in the Senate to convict him, a charge that looked more and more true with each passing call), cost him the race, as Murphy won 51-48.

Next was Charlie Crist's district. Local Republicans targeted him, albeit without assistance from national Republicans. They nominated Former St. Petersburg Mayor Bill Foster, who ran close with Crist early, largely by attacking him as an opportunist (even running an ad suggesting Crist would run for President in 2020, something Crist angrily denied). However, the narrow coattails at the top of the ticket were not enough to knock off Crist, who won 51-47.

Third was Vern Buchanan's district. Democrats targeted him, nominating Former NFL Wide Receiver Peter Warrick. Warrick was not an especially strong candidate, as he was attacked for a scam which cost him the Heisman Trophy, and left pleading guilty to petty theft. Buchanan earned a hold 56-43.

Fourth was Brian Mast's district. Democrats targeted Mast, nominating Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg. Aronberg hammered Mast for voting for the AHCA and the Republican Tax Bill. Aronberg defeated Mast 49-48.

Fifth was Debbie Wasserman Schultz's district. Wasserman Schultz again faced a primary challenge from her 2016 opponent, Tim Canova. Unfortunately for Canova, his views became a bit more kooky, and as a result Wasserman Schultz won by a more comfortable 65-35 margin, then won re-election in November unopposed.

Sixth was Mario Diaz-Balart's district. Democrats targeted Diaz-Balart, nominating State Representative Robert Asencio. Diaz-Balart was popular with the community, and getting an endorsement from Marco Rubio helped as well, as Diaz-Balart held the seat for Republicans 54-44.

Last, was Ilena Ros-Letihan's district. Ros-Letihan saw the writing on the wall, being a Republican in a district that supported Clinton by a convincing margin. She retired, leaving the seat open. Republicans had a primary between Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barriero, former Miami-Dade School Board member Raquel Realgado, and Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez Cantera. Lopez-Cantera had the statewide name recognition, and was able to earn a victory with 60% of the vote to Barriero's 25% and Realgado's 14.7%. Democrats also had a contested primary, between Miami Beach City Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, State Representative David Richardson and State Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez. Javier Rodriguez was able to win the primary with 42% of the vote to Rosen Gonzalez's 36% and Richardson's 21%. While Lopez Cantera had name recognition and supported reinstating the embargo on Cuba, an important issue in the district, while Javier Rodriguez's non-committal stance on the issue hurt his chances. Lopez Cantera earned an important, and surprising hold for Republicans 50-49.

Hawaii

Despite a Kidney Cancer scare, Maize Hirono ran for re-election, and did not face opposition, earning 98.9% of the vote in the General Election.

Like his predecessor, Neil Abercrombie, David Ige faced a primary challenge, this time from State Senator Josh Green. Unlike Abercrombie, Ige was able to rally after a slow start, recovering to post a 50-48 victory in the primary. Republicans nominated State Representative Bob McDermott, but he had no shot here. Ige won with ease, 72-25.

One House District drew attention from Beltway watchers in the Aloha State. Tulsi Gabbard drew a primary challenge from State Representative Mark Nakashima. Nakashima attacked Gabbard for her support of Bashar Al-Assad, a charge which resonated with voters. In a rare occurrence an incumbent was turned out in a primary, as Nakashima won 52-47.9. Nakashima, then defeated a weak Republican 90-9.