Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

Another LDP nomination screw-up  5- member 板橋(Itabashi) district

TPFA           16.9% elected
KP               16.5% elected
TPFA           15.8% elected
JCP             13.5% elected
DP              12.0% elected
LDP            11.8%
LDP            11.0%
Ind               2.7% (most likely LDP rebel)

This is the first election result I have seen, ever, there the LDP bloc (LDP, LDP ally, pro-LDP Ind, LDP rebel independent) failed to win one seat in a 5- seat or greater district. 

I did some detailed searching and after a long time I find one example of this.  It was the 1993 General election 兵庫(Hyogo) 1st district.   In the pre-1993 era Hyogo along with Osaka were pretty much the weakest LDP area.  1993 was special because the creation of anti-LDP splinters JRP (Ozawa led splinter) and JNP (Hosokawa led splinter.)  JNP actually broke away from LDP in 1992 while the Ozawa rebellion which led to the creation of JRP was what trigger the defeat of the LDP in the 1993 Vote of No Confidence which led to the 1993 snap election. 

In the 1993 snap election the LDP lost a bunch of seats (but not as much as one would think as in many places JRP and JNP cut as much into the opposition SPJ vote as it did from the LDP if not more) and lost is majority.  JRP and JNP support bases seems inversely correlated which means in most districts either JRP did well or JNP did well but usually not both.

The  兵庫(Hyogo) 1st district was unique that it was a place of relative LDP weakness, JRP, JNP AND SPJ were all relatively strong, and the LDP over-nominated leading to a total washout of the LDP in this 5- member district.  In fact the collectives strength of JRP JNP and SPJ here also squeezed out JCP after KP won its customary seat.  The result was

KP                    16.1%   elected
JRP                   14.7%   elected
SPJ                   12.0%   elected
SPJ backed Ind. 11.6%   elected
JNP                   11.1%   elected
LDP                   10.3%
JCP                     9.9%
pro-LDP Ind.       7.1%
LDP                    5.6%

[jaichind]

Local paper poll for 仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election for next week has the DP led alliance candidate ahead.

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate   ~30%
LDP backed candidate                    ~17%
DP rebel                                       ~10%
LDP rebel                                       ~3%

With 40% undecided.  Over 50% of LDP voters are undecided so the LDP candidate could close the gap.

This is a race that the DP led opposition bloc has to win.  If they cannot win in this sort of national environment that is increasing anti-LDP with what is considered a swing district that has a DP lean with an alliance with JCP, KP nowhere to be seen, and a weak JRP not able to split the vote, then DP has no real hope of of being more relevant in the near future, if ever.  Sure there is a DP rebel but there is a LDP rebel as well.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election prediction

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     39%
LDP backed candidate                      35%
DP rebel                                         19%
LDP rebel                                         7%

[jaichind]

Ashai-KHB exit poll for 仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election  indicates opposition advantage with a lead less than 10%.

[Lachi]

Who is in opposition? the DP-SDP-JCP?

[jaichind]

Who is in opposition? the DP-SDP-JCP?

Yep

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor exit poll



Seem to imply something like

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     44%
LDP backed candidate                      35%
DP rebel                                         18%
LDP rebel                                         3%

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor exit poll (how independents voted)



DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     47%
LDP backed candidate                      25%
DP rebel                                         24%
LDP rebel                                         4%

These are actually not that bad numbers for LDP.  Independents have a lot of hidden DP voters although they also include a lot of KP voters.  The LDP candidate most likely cannot win with these numberss but can still win a respectable share of the  vote as long as it carries the LDP vote by a significant margin.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor exit poll (how LDP and KP voters voted)

LDP voters
DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     18%
LDP backed candidate                      68%
DP rebel                                         13%
LDP rebel                                         1%

KP voters
DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     15%
LDP backed candidate                      76%
DP rebel                                           9%
LDP rebel                                       ~0%

DP voters
DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     88%
LDP backed candidate                        4%
DP rebel                                           7%
LDP rebel                                          1%

JCP voters
DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     82%
LDP backed candidate                        3%
DP rebel                                           9%
LDP rebel                                          6%

In the end most of the LDP and even KP vote came home to the LDP candidate although a good part of the LDP-KP vote did go to the opposition candidates.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor NHK exit poll



seem to imply something like

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     46%
LDP backed candidate                      37%
DP rebel                                         15%
LDP rebel                                         2%

[jaichind]

More NHK data for 仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor exit poll



Voter breakdown
LDP      31%
KP         3%
JRP       1%
DP       12%
SDP       1%
LP          1%
JCP        5%
Ind.      43%

Vote within each bloc
DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     Blue
LDP backed candidate                      Red
DP rebel                                        Yellow
LDP rebel                                      Orange


LDP backed candidate won the LDP-KP voter base but with significant defections.  DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate easily won the DP and JCP vote base.  DP rebel did fairly well in the Independent voting bloc which overall went with DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate overall.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor exit poll by Sendai radio is very different and much closer

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     40.87%
LDP backed candidate                      38.29%
DP rebel                                         17.62%
LDP rebel                                         1.86%

Of course these vote shares do not add up to 100% is a problem

[jaichind]

I must have missed this but in the end KP did endorse the LDP backed candidate, as did PJK for 仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor.  If anything that means the defeat of the LDP backed candidate is more disturbing for LDP. 

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election turnout is reported to be 44.52% by NHK.

[jaichind]

Even though no official election results have been reportedm NHK has called the  仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election for the DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate 郡 和子 (Gun Kazuko) who is a sitting DP MP but resigned to contest the mayoral race.

[jaichind]

How the NHK makes these calls are unknown to me.  I assume it is based on their exit polls plus their agents in the counting centers that are giving out unofficial counting trends.

[Lachi]

Are these results going to make a difference in the national scope though?

[jaichind]

Are these results going to make a difference in the national scope though?

Pro-LDP Sankei reports this as a major defeat for the Abe administration.  What this shows that in Northern Japan if DP-JCP can hold their alliance they can defeat a united LDP-KP (LDP rebel got nearly nothing) even with Third pole candidates in the play (the DP rebel has a YP/JIP background and attracted mostly Third pole (non- or anti-LDP center-right) votes.)

LDP will still sweep Southern Japan so if the LDP is to be beaten it has to be beaten in Central Japan in places like Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, and Chiba.  It is not clear that DP-JCP is capable of doing this without some sort of cooperation with Third Pole parties and/or KP.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with 24% of the vote counted it is neck-to-neck with estimated vote share is

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     ~40%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate          ~40%
DP rebel                                         ~17.4%
LDP rebel                                        ~2.6%

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with 78% of the vote counted it is 

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       41.6%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            39.5%
DP rebel                                           16.4%
LDP rebel                                           2.5%

LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate doing pretty well so far.

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with 81% of the vote counted it is 

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       41.7%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            39.6%
DP rebel                                           16.3%
LDP rebel                                           2.4%

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with 93% of the vote counted it is 

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       43.2%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            39.2%
DP rebel                                           15.4%
LDP rebel                                           2.2%

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with 99% of the vote counted it is 

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       43.0%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            38.7%
DP rebel                                           16.0%
LDP rebel                                           2.3%

[jaichind]

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor race with all votes counted

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       43.0%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            38.7%
DP rebel                                           16.0%
LDP rebel                                           2.3%

My prediction was not too far off.  I got the margin of victory mostly correct (4% vs 4.3%) and got the LDP/anti-LDP vote share roughly correct (42/58 vs 41/59.)  I underestimated tactical voting within both these blocs.

仙台市 (Sendai City) mayor election prediction

DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate     39%
LDP backed candidate                      35%
DP rebel                                         19%
LDP rebel                                         7%

[jaichind]

More detailed version of the NHK exit poll has now exact numbers


DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       44.6%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            36.6%
DP rebel                                           16.3%
LDP rebel                                           2.3%

while a more detailed version of Asahi exit poll has now exact numbers


DP-SDP-JCP backed DP candidate       46.7%
LDP-KP-PJK backed candidate            30.1%
DP rebel                                           19.4%
LDP rebel                                           3.8%


The NHK exit poll was more accurate but my prediction was closer on the margin of victory than both exit polls.