Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

The next trial of strength between LDP and and the anti-LDP forces will be next Sunday 7/30 for the mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama).  Just like Sendai Yokohama is a Designated City giving the post of mayor significant power and prestige.  Even more so Yokohama has a population of almost 4 million and is the largest city in 神奈川県 (Kanagawa Prefecture).  The Designated City large than Yokohama is Osaka City.

In theory, until the lastest run of election disasters this election should not even be on the political radar.  For on thing the pro-LDP incumbent is running for re-election and in Japan Mayors and Governors rarely lose re-election especially when most of the time the non-JCP mainstream parties (LDP KP DP/DPJ) tend to just back the incumbent as a consensus candidate.     In 2013 the Yokohama election for mayor result was

Incumbent (backed by LDP KP and DPJ)      81.9%   林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko)
pro-JCP                                                    15.9%
Independent                                               2.3%

in record low turnout. 

This time around the pro-LDP incumbent is running again for re-election and the DP decided this time to give her a run for her money.  Main problem is that two pro-DP candidates emerged.  One is a former DP MP 長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) and the other is a former DPJ member of the Kanagawa Prefecture assembly 伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro).  DP could not arbitrate between the two and called for a free vote for pro-DP supporters for them to vote for either one of the two opposition candidates.

So the election will be

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right

It seem JCP and LP as well as the DP Right wing (ironically) will back Ito while the DP Left wing will back Nagashima.  With the power of incumbency and the opposition split no one gave the opposition any chance topping the pro-LDP incumbent.   But with the rapid fall in Abe and LDP support and successive defeat in the polls there has been more recent, especially after LDP-KP's defeat in Sendai, focus on this race.

It is pretty close that  Hayashi will most likely win.  But the question is will she be able to be held below 50% or even 45% of the vote.  There might be tactical voting in the opposition bloc.  There are rumors at the grassroots level that Nagashima is running behind Ito and that last minute there might be a collapse of Nagashima support for Ito.   The Nagashima camp obviously trying to pooh-pooh this rumor. 

[jaichind]

New Sankei poll for Japan has Koike's approval at 68%.  Asked if TPFA were to enter national politics 31.9% indicated they will vote TPFA vs 29.1% for LDP.  Note at the national level the LDP-KP alliance is intact so the 29.1% vote for LDP will include some KP voters.

[jaichind]

DP's Renho resigns as leader of DP to take responsibility for defeat in Tokyo Prefecture elections.

[jaichind]

For mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) turnout is projected to be at 36.1%



Not sure this includes early voting.  Most likely these numbers indicate a comfortable LDP-KP victory.

[jaichind]

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP projected victor of the mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama).  What is really interesting would be the vote share.  If she comes in below 50% that would still indicate that LDP is in significant trouble.

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) exit polls



Looks something like

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     52%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     25%

No real tactical voting on the opposition front.  Looks like I got the rough win-loss right by saying that a critical threshold is if the LDP-KP can cross 50%.  It seems she is right around that zone.  If this ends up being the result it should really be seen as a tie, relative to expectations and the LDP bleeding has stopped for now without a recovery. 

[jaichind]

NHK version of the exit poll.



This one has has it more like

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     54%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   22%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     24%

Same exit poll has party support among voters to be
LDP   31
KP       4
DP     11
JCP     5

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) turnout officially at 37.23%.  Back in 2013 when the race was noncompetitive it was around 29%.

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 10% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     54.5%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.2%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.3%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 17% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     55.4%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   22.8%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     21.8%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 56% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     54.1%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.3%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.6%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 61% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     53.7%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.2%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     23.1%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 74% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     53.8%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.3%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.8%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 85% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     53.6%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.8%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.6%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 92% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     54.3%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   23.5%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.2%

LDP doing somewhat better than feared.  It is still a fairly poor and at least below average result given the incumbant is running for re-election but it is good enough for the LDP to claim the downward spiral has been stopped. 

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) with 99% of the vote in

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     53.2%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   24.0%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.9%

[jaichind]

Mayor election of 横浜市(Yokohama) all votes counted

林 文子(Hayashi Fumiko) backed by LDP-KP                     53.1%
長島一由 (Nagashima Ikki) backed by DP Left                   24.0%
伊藤大貴 (Ito Takahiro) backed by LP-JCP and DP Right     22.9%