Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

Latest NNN poll which has approval/disapproval at 31.9/49.2 pushes the Abe cabinet average approval curve underwater for the first time since late summer of 2015.

[jaichind]

NNN poll has Abe cabinet approval approval/disapproval down to 31.9%(-7.9%)/49.2%(+7.4%).  A record low

If this continues, he'll probably be gone by year's end.

Not 100% sure about that.  NNN polls tends to have a anti-Abe bias.  I agree if the running average of all the polls has Abe approval at 30% then Abe will have to go before the next election.  We will have to see more polls next couple of weeks and see if Abe can use the North Korea crisis to turn it around by focusing on external enemies.

[jaichind]

Today is the election for 那覇市(Naha) city council.  Naha is the capital of Okinawa.  This should be a good test of how low LDP can go.  In Okinawa we have the confluence of being the most anti-Abe prefecture plus the rising tension of the US base issue last few years.  Also in 2013 when the last election was held it was the peak of LDP popularity. 

The city council is 40 members and it is one massive 40- member district.  Back in 2013 57 candidates ran for 40 seats with a turnout of 60.14%.  This time 67 candidates are running for the 40 seats with a lower turnout of 51.2%.  In 2013 LDP and pro-LDP independents ran 21 candidates and won 17 with a total vote share of 40.1%.  We will see how badly LDP does this time.  For one thing LDP is already expecting a bad night and is only running 14 candidates so its vote share will fall a lot for sure.  How many seats it manages to win will be a metric of the impact of decline of the national LDP has on this local race.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll has it at 36 (-13)/52 (+11) for Abe approval/disapproval.  This is a bit worse than what took place in the late summer of 2015 when the new security law was being passed.   Yomiuri polls historically has a slight pro-LDP slant.



Gender gap growing.  Back in May it was Men 66 Women 57 approval.  Now it is Men 45 Women 28.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll has Abe Cabinet approval at 33(-5)/47(+5).  Asahi polls tend to have an anti-LDP bias.  It seems a neutral approval rating for Abe is around 35-36.  NHK will come out with their monthly poll today or tomorrow.  Would be interesting to see what their numbers show.

[Jeppe]

What's a realistic path for Koike to become Prime Minister?

[jaichind]

Updated Abe cabinet approval/disapproval average after Yomiuri and Asahi polls.  Could go down a bit more once NHK poll comes and assuming it confirms the same trend.  Abe approval now officially a few points worse than its low point in the late summer of 2015 when the new Security Law was passed.

[jaichind]

What's a realistic path for Koike to become Prime Minister?

It is not easy.  She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early.  I would imagine the path is

1) She stays focused on Tokyo politics and gets a bunch of policy wins including a successful 2020 Olympics
2) 2018 national elections has LDP-KP losing their 2/3 majority and LDP barely above majority given the relative weakness of DP and JRP.  Abe steps down but is able to install a pro-Abe successor.
3) LDP decline at the national level continues but DP continues to be rudderless so it is not able to take advantage of the LDP's decline.  LDP-KP barely wins 2019 Upper House elections over a weak DP and JRP.  
4) Koike wins re-election in 2020
5) TPFA-KP cruse to easly re-election victory in 2021 in Tokyo Prefecture elections
6) Koike takes TPFA national and forms a Koike Party at the national level in 2021.
7) Koike Party forms an alliance with DP and KP at the national level under Koike's leadership.  Anti-Abe LDP factions defect to Koike Party.  Rump LDP which is pro-Abe forms an alliance with the pro-Abe JRP.
8  ) Koike Party-KP-DP defeats LDP-JRP in 2022 national elections with Koike as PM.

[jaichind]

To reinforce my point that Koike has to take her time NNN poll also asks "Do you want TPFA to run candidates in the next national elections?"  26.6 Yes 55.2 No.

[jaichind]

With 77% of the vote in for 那覇市(Naha) city council things are not going well for LDP. With 22 seats out of the 40 called LDP has won only 1 with 1 other pro-LDP independent/rebel winning.  Of the last 18 LDP does have a good shot of winning a bunch of them so it is too early to call this a rout of the LDP yet.

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) city council, 26 out of 40 called.  LDP has 4 seat and pro-LDP ind/rebel 1 seat.

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) city council, 32 out of 40 called.  LDP has 6 seat and pro-LDP ind/rebel 1 seat.

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) city council, 35 out of 40 called.  LDP has 7 seat and pro-LDP ind/rebel 1 seat.  It seems unlikely that the LDP would win any of the 5 outstanding seats.   Perhaps one more pro-LDP ind/rebel.  Would be interesting to calculate vote shares of different parties, especially LDP.

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) city council, all seats called.  Out of 40 seats, LDP wins 7 seats and LDP rebels wins 3.

In 2013 it was LDP winning 17 seats out of 21 contested with a vote share of 40.1% while LDP rebels won none out of 1 seat contested with a vote share of 1.3%.  Now it is LDP winning 7 seats out of 14 contested with a vote share of 20.6% while LDP rebels won 3 out of 7 seats contested with a 9.2% vote share.  LDP+ bloc lost around 11% vote share from 13.   A very bad night but not a complete meltdown. 

[jaichind]

Mainichi did an analysis on what would have taken place if LDP kept their alliance with KP.  The focused on the seats that KP did not contest.



It concluded that if the KP vote went LDP in the 21 seats where the KP did not run then 12 seats would have flipped to LDP with TPFA+ losing 10, DP losing 1, and SNT losing 1.

TPFA+ 55  -> 45
LDP     23  -> 35
KP       23  -> 23
JCP      19 -> 19
DP        5  ->  4
SNT      1 ->   0
JRP       1 ->   1

This fits very much with my view that 2017 is mostly a repeat of 2009 with a negative swing of around 1% against LDP PLUS LDP losing the KP alliance. 

                                                   Seats    LDP vote   LDP 09-17     LDP seats     LDP seats
                                                                 2017          swing        won (2009)    won(2017)
20 Districts KP ran in 09 and 17       89       22.42%       -0.98%          23                16
1 District KP ran in 17 but not 09       3       19.51%     -10.89%            1                 0
21 District KP did not run                35       23.08%      -11.91%         14                  7

So according to Mainichi, the LDP will win 19 seats as opposed to 7 in the 21 districts where KP did not run.  In 2009 LDP won 14 such seats.   In many ways on surface this seems illogical since LDP is weaker in 2017 than 2009 so how could it manage to win more seats than in 2009 in these 21 districts.    I think the main mistake Mainichi  made is to assume that IF the LDP-KP alliance continued that the ENTIRE KP vote would go LDP in these 21 seats.  I think reality given the policy view differences between the KP and LDP voters one would think there would be some defection away from the LDP by the KP voter.  I looked into the 5 seats that LDP would win under the Mainichi scenario in 2017 but lost in 2009.  What  I found was that in 2 of them the 2009 results shows that a KP backed LDP candidate lost and I am sure would still lose in 2017.  In the 3 other such seat it seems the Mainichi analysis would be correct since in 2009 the LDP faced DP either with no or nominal JCP there to split the vote.  In 2017 in these 3 seats the JCP ran a strong campaign which would have split the anti-LDP vote.  So in these 3 districts the LDP would have won as long as the LDP-KP alliance continued whereas LDP lost these seats in 2009 even as the LDP was a bit weaker in 2017 than in 2009.

So my conclusion is that if LDP-KP alliance continued the LDP would have won 33 seats as opposed to the 23 it actually won and 35 seats projected by Mainichi.   

There is an argument that it might be a seat or two more.  The reason why was the dynamics of the 3- seat districts.  Because of the break-off of the LDP-KP alliance and clear rumors of a DP-JCP tactical surge in these seats there were talks that KP might lose some of its seats in the 3- seat districts as pro-LDP KP voters drifted to LDP.  The KP was driven by a sense of crisis to go all out in a massive GOTV in these 3- member districts which pulled in nominally pro-LDP voters to vote KP "to stop JCP."  In the end there was a JCP surge based on DP-JCP tactical voting but the KP vote did not fall as rumored but instead surged due to its GOTV effort.  This same effort took LDP votes away toward the KP and it was the LDP that fell victim to the JCP surge which did come.  If the LDP-KP alliance stayed then this fear would not be there and the LDP-KP vote would be split more normally and mostly like beat by the JCP in a few of the 5 seats that the JCP won the the 3- member districts.

[Lachi]

What are the full results for the Naha election?

[jaichind]

What are the full results for the Naha election?

Okinawa politics revolve around pro-US base (LDP) or pro-Governor (who is very anti-base which are JCP OMSP DP AO OSMP which are all Center-Left) or Neutral (anti-base or neutral centrist or center-right forces like KP JRP POR)


In 2013 it was
                            
                       Contested     Won    Vote share
Pro-Base            
LDP                     21             17           40.08%

Neutral
LDP rebel              1               0             1.28%
KP                        7              7            13.49%
POR                      2              1             3.36%  (anti-base Right wing regional party, JRP ally)
Minor parties         2              0             0.98%
Independents        7              1             7.68%

Pro-Governor
JCP                      6              6            12.45%
SDP                     3              3              6.97%
OMSP                   3              2              7.02% (anti-base Left wing regional party. JCP ally)
DP                       3              2              4.65%
Ind-Left               1              1               2.03%


2017 results

                       Contested     Won    Vote share
Pro-Base            
LDP                     14               7           20.63%

Neutral
LDP rebel              7               3            9.23% (LDP rebels mostly anti-base or neutral)
KP                        7              7            16.91%
JRP                      5               4             8.19%  (anti-base, POR merged into JRP)
Minor parties         5              0             1.80%
Independents      10              3             9.36%

Pro-Governor
JCP                      7              7            12.34%
JCP rebel             1               0              0.72%
SDP                     4              3              6.13%
OMSP                   2              2              4.58% (anti-base Left wing regional party. JCP ally)
DP                       2              1              2.93%
AO                      3              3               7.18% (pro-Governor anti-base regional party)

Part of the reason LDP fell so much has to do with the fact that anti-base sentiment is rising.  Pro-Governor bloc did not gain that much.  This election is mostly about the LDP vote going to the neutral parties, including LDP rebels.


In 2016 Okinawa Prefecture elections the vote share for 11- seat Naha district were

                       Contested     Won    Vote share
Pro-Base            
LDP                      4               3           24.54%

Neutral
KP                        2              2            12.80%
JRP                      1               1             6.84% 
JRP rebel              1               0             0.65%
DP rebel               1               0             4.01%

Pro-Governor
JCP                      2              2            14,71%
SDP                     2              2            12.83%
OMSP                   1              1              7.38% (anti-base Left wing regional party. JCP ally)
DP                       1              0              4.70%
AO                      3              0             11.53% (pro-Governor anti-base regional party)

Neutrals gained a lot from both camps in 2017 relative to 2016 ergo this election was a defeat for LDP but also a setback for Pro-Governor bloc.

[jaichind]

In the end TPFA+ got a vote share of 38.18% which beats any LDP+ (LDP, LDP backed independents, pro-LDP independents) vote share in any Tokyo Prefecture election.  The record holder of the top vote share is DPJ in 2009 when it got 42.4%.  In terms of seat count TPFA+ at 55 is the same as what the LDP+ got in 2005 and what DPJ got in 2009.  The record for the most number of seats by party in a Tokyo Prefecture election is still LDP in 2013 when it got 59 seats. 

This is a cautionary tale for TPFA. Note the record for highest vote share was DPJ in 2009 but in the next election it dropped to 15 seats and 17.14% in the next election of 2013. This is the worst DPJ showing since 1997 when DPJ was just founded.   Same for LDP which after it won a record 59 seats in 2013 went to the lowest seat count ever in the next election in 2017 to 23 seats.

[jaichind]

NHK poll has Abe approval/disapproval at 35(-13)/48(+12) which is the worst for Abe ever.


Although it is only a couple of points worst than Aug 2015 when the new Security Bill was passed. Abe was able to bounce back from that and in theory he can bounce back from this.

Party support has LDP falling to 30.7 but DP also falling to a record low 5.8.  There is still no alternative to LDP at the national level.


Post-NHK Abe approval/disapproval average

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll has it at 36/52 for approval/disapproval also has a history of reasons for approval/disapproval.

For approval

The top reason is "There is no one else" which usually explains around 25% of Abe Cabinet's total approval.  Now that is down to 18%.  The second reasons is "Trust PM Abe" which was around 12%-13% is now down to around 5%

For disapproval

There used to be a tie between "Do not trust PM" "Do not agree with Cabinet policies" and "Do not support LDP" which all three hover around 8-10%. Now the there is a clear reason for disapproval.  The top reason for disapproval which explains 25% is "Do not trust PM Abe".  There is also a jump to 8% for "Do not support members of the Cabinet" which explains why Abe is looking to do a Cabinet reshuffle in Aug. 

While Abe has the ability to come back from this if it stays this way (top reason for disapproval is lack of trust in Abe) Abe will have to go before the next national election.

[jaichind]

This election was another way for KP to demonstrate its organizational power to itself, its allies, its enemies and its potential allies.  One example of this is in the 8- member Ota district where the result was

TPFA    elected  18.51%
TPFA    elected  11.11%
KP       elected    8.99%    26,704
KP       elected    8.95%    26,593
JCP     elected    8.40%
LDP     elected   7.35%
JRP     elected    7.22%
LDP     elected   7.14%
LDP                  6.41%
JCP                   6.12%
DP                    5.63%
Minor right        1.83%
Minor right        1.39%

Here, KP was certain given the number of competitive candidates relative to seats splitting the vote that KP was certain to win both seats given its vote base.  So there was no need for KP to try to bias  its vote to ensure that at least 1 of 2 of its candidate won.  As a result this district became a public way for KP to show off its power by having its two candidates get an almost identical number of votes (26,704 vs 26,593).  Being off by 100 votes or so in a district where almost 300K people voted shows a very clear organizational power. 

The KP is constantly in fear of being pushed out of the social and political mainstream and banned as a cult.  As a result the need to show its political power, especially to those in power (LDP and TPFA) is critical to what it views as its survival.  Of course having the sort of organization that can show of such power in turn can lead to others to claim that KP and Soka Gakkai are in reality cults.

[jaichind]

The critical nature of KP as far as affecting the fortunes of the LDP was clearly on display in Tokyo. What is also on display is the organisational power of the KP.  But despite this KP is in slow decline in Tokyo and over the next couple of decades could become a less potent force in absolute terms.

A look at KP performance in Tokyo prefecture elections since 2001

Election    Turnout     Total Vote    Vote share       Vote share in
Year                                                               district contested
2001          50.1%      722K            15.1%              20.8%
2005          44.0%      786K            18.0%              24.7%
2009          54.5%      743K            13.2%              18.4%
2013          43.5%      639K            14.1%              19.5%
2017          51.3%      704K            13.1%              18.0%

In many ways the KP never came back from the blow in 2009 when it was part of the LDP-KP that was defeated by DPJ.  KP won all 23 seats for sure but a even in a very high turnout election in 2009 where the KP was expect to lose vote share the KP total vote declined from its incredible 2005 performance.  2017 KP clearly is  under-performing 2001 both in terms of vote share and absolute number of votes which itself was a below average year for KP even though there are similar turnout patters.  The KP machine went into high gear in the 3- seat districts to save its seats which it was successful but overall the decline of KP continues even as it remains the main pivotal force in Tokyo and indeed all of Japan.

[jaichind]

On July 23 there will be an election for the open seat of the prestigious post of mayor of 仙台市 (Sendai City)  which is the capital of  宮城県 (Miyagi Prefecture) which is pretty much the largest of Northern Japan.  Given its size it is one of the 20  designated cities in Japan which means the city government has many powers that only a prefecture government has.  

Given the prestigious nature of the role and it is an open seat there are many power aspirants.   The united opposition (DP-SDP-JCP) will support a sitting DP MP from 宮城県 (Miyagi Prefecture) to run.  The LDP will back a local power broker which derives his power from his ownership of a series of funeral homes.   Both candidates face rebels from their own block.  A former YP MP and now member of DP bolted from DP to run as an independent while another former LDP MP also will run as a rebel candidate.



Candidates from left to right: DP-SDP-JCP backed DP MP, DP ex-MP (as part of YP) rebel, LDP backed candidate (funeral home owner), LDP ex-MP rebel


On the whole LDP support in 宮城県 (Miyagi Prefecture) seems to mirror its support in the rest of Japan and 仙台市 (Sendai City) is often seen as bellwether.  Given this is Northern Japan DP tends to be stronger here relative to the rest Japan.  JRP is relatively weaker here than the rest of Japan.

A local paper poll show the DP-SDP-JCP DP MP with a slight lead over the LDP candidate.  Same poll has Abe approval at 35.2/57.1 which seems to mirror national polls at least when it comes to approval rating.  The higher disapproval rating seems to reflect the stronger DP strength here.  Same poll has party support at LDP 30.7% DP 11.4% JCP 4.3% KP 4.1% SDP 2.9% and JRP 2.0% which seems to mirror national polls with the exception of the stronger DP support here.

If DP is able even to make some ground and take advantage of Abe weakness then it has to win here.  If it cannot then I just do see how DP can be that viable in the 2018 national elections unless Abe implodes even more.
  

[jaichind]

In some isolated corners of the LDP there seems to be noises being raised against Abe and calling for his ouster.  For sure he will face serious competition in next year's LDP President race.  So far there are no formal organized opposition to Abe yet.  So what sort of situation would lead to more organized resistance to Abe.  

For this we look to something called the 青木の法則 (Aoki's law).  青木 幹雄 (Aoki Mikio) was Secretary-General of the LDP in the Upper House and interim PM back in 2000.  He was a powerful figure in the LDP in the 1990s and retired in 2010. He came up with something called the Aoki Index which is [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party].  His theory is that if this index is above 85 then it makes sense to call a mid-term election since the ruling party is sure to win by a large margin.  Also if this index falls below 50 then the ruling party will face an electoral rout and it is best to replace the PM.  The logic of this index is similar to that old USA electoral rule (which might not be true) that undecided break for the opposition so the performance of the ruling party is a function of visible levels of support (approval rating and party support) and that in an election campaign the opposition ratings will rise.

Back in 2014 when Abe was deciding to see if he should call a mid-term election, a political science article pointed out that most likely he will since the Aoki index was in his favor.  The article pointed out the seats won by the LDP was very correlated to the Aoki index



The Blue bar is the number of seats LDP won and Orange line the Aoki index which he computed using NHK poll.  For 2012 he used an "Inverse Aoki index" where he added Cabinet Disapproval rating + LDP support since the ruling party in 2012 was DPJ.

Then he pointed out that a historical view of the Aoki index



Shows that Abe's Aoki index in Nov seems to be above 80 which seems close enough to 85 to call an election.

An updated version of the Aoki index using NHK polling data up to earlier in 2017 shows Abe in pretty good shape (above 80) up to the Spring of 2017


Of course the most recent fall in Abe/LDP ratings means that his Aoki index have fallen a lot


The latest NHK numbers has Abe's Aoki index is a 65.7.  I think if the Aoki index falls below 55 most likely there will be organized movements within LDP to remove Abe.

One can use the Aoki index using NHK data to look at various Japanese political events since 2000.

Late June 2000 - General election - Aoki index (Average June and July numbers) at 50.5 - LDP-KP barely won over a divide opposition (JCP LP and DPJ).  Any sort of opposition coordination and LDP-KP should have been beaten

April 2001 - Aoki Index at 28.4 - LDP PM Mori forced out of leadership of LDP and out of office

Late July 2001 - Upper House election - Aoki Index (Average of July and August numbers) at 108.2 - massive Koizumi LDP-KP-NCP landslide.  From a vote share point of view greatest landslide in modern Japanese election history

Nov 2003 - General election - Aoki Index at 88.6 - Solid LDP-KP win which is somewhat blunted by the a united DPJ since LP merged into DPJ before the election

July 2004 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 76.1 - LDP-KP barely won and was seen as a setback for Koizumi

Sep 2005 - General election - Aoki Index at 100.4 - LDP-KP Koizumi landslide despite creation of several LDP splinter parties

July 2007 - Upper House election - Aoki Index at 69.8 - LDP-KP defeat at the hands of DPJ led opposition mostly due to opposition unity against LDP.  

Sept 2007 - Aoki index at 61.4 - Abe forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well.

May 2008 - Aoki index at 46.6 - Fukuda forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well

Late Aug 2009 - General election -  Aoki Index (Average of August and Sept  numbers) at 43.8 - LDP-KP landslide defeat by DPJ led opposition alliance

May 2010 - Aoki index at 41.8 - Hatoyama forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

July 2010 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 68.8 - DPJ defeated by LDP-KP mostly due to inability of DPJ to lock on allies like SDP or YP or even KP.  

August 2011 - Aoki index at 34.4 - Kan forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

Dec 2012 - General election - Aoki index at 36.1 - DPJ destroyed by LDP-KP in a landslide defeat.  JRP and YP added to the damage by splitting the anti-LDP vote

July 2013 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 99.5 - LDP-KP landslide victory as JRP and YP loses vote share to LDP-KP

Dec 2014 - General election - Aoki index at 85.1 - LDP-KP landslide victory despite DPJ-JIP tactical alliances

Aug 2015 - Aoki index at 71.7 - Abe's low point so far due to new Security Law.  LDP held firm and Abe bounced back.

July 2016 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 88.3 - significant LDP-KP victory whose scale was somewhat blunted by DP-JCP alliances in 1- member districts

July 2017 - Aoki index at 65.7 - A series of scandals, gaffs and debacle in the Tokyo Prefecture election drives Abe into the worst crisis since his 2012 comeback.  

Looking at this history of Aoki index if the index falls below 60 then there will be pressure for Abe to go ASAP.  If going into the LDP leadership race which will most likely before the 2018 general election and the Aoki index cannot get above 75 if not 80 then Abe's opposition will be very significant with a strong chance he will be defeated.

[jaichind]

Updated Aoki index with new Jiji poll