Trump approval ratings thread 1.1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 06:11:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  Trump approval ratings thread 1.1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 78
Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1  (Read 201822 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 18, 2017, 12:16:35 PM »
« edited: May 31, 2017, 11:26:42 AM by Mr. Morden »

The other thread got to 2000 replies, so time for a new one.  Here's the link to the old thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.2000
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,156
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2017, 12:20:37 PM »

Technically, this should be 1.1 as the Obama 2.0 thread covered his 2nd term approvals. It just goes to show how obsessed with approval Trump is that he managed to exhaust a thread in four months that Obama could make last four years.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2017, 12:22:33 PM »

Gallup (May 17th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)


* reposted from old thread
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,346
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2017, 12:47:36 PM »

New low for Trump at fivethirtyeight with 39,6%. Still amazingly high.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2017, 12:52:02 PM »

Okay, is it now fair to say that these 38% of people are actually dumb instead of saying they're "economically anxious"?

I'm sure many of these people would continue to reject the notion that Trump is guilty of anything but being too awesome, but for others, no one wants to admit they were wrong, especially when you feel half the country is looking down on you. Saying they disapprove of him so quickly might just be such an admission. Usually presidents erode confidence among their base over years, and yet Trump started out in shambles and it has only worsened since, so this is still pretty remarkable in its own right. I think it is going to take a while before his base significantly erodes.

Now I'm just curious if high-30s becomes his new baseline following all of this, or if the status quo remains.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,519
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2017, 01:30:52 PM »

White Millennials (18-34) Disapprove of Trump

34% Approve
47% Disapprove

Source
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,358
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2017, 02:37:29 PM »

Monmouth national poll (change from March):

Approve 39% (-4)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Conducted 5/13-5/17.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2017, 02:38:18 PM »

Monmouth national poll (change from March):

Approve 39% (-4)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Wow, that's a stunning change.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,519
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2017, 02:49:54 PM »

Monmouth national poll (change from March):

Approve 39% (-4)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Conducted 5/13-5/17.

It was Monmouth, not Q. My bad!
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2017, 03:01:31 PM »

Monmouth national poll (change from March):

Approve 39% (-4)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Conducted 5/13-5/17.

Wowza. That's a freefall.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2017, 03:23:29 PM »

In the details on that Monmouth poll:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2017, 03:26:27 PM »

White Millennials (18-34) Disapprove of Trump

34% Approve
47% Disapprove

Source

-13 with white millennials? lol that's bad.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2017, 05:08:31 PM »

One useful feature on HuffPo's poll aggregation is the ability to look at the aggregate numbers for certain crosstabs.  E.g., here is the trendline for all polls on Trump's job approval among Republicans only:

link

Currently at 80.6% approve, 15.5% disapprove, for +65.1% approval.  Two weeks ago it was at +71%.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,120
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2017, 08:08:50 PM »

One useful feature on HuffPo's poll aggregation is the ability to look at the aggregate numbers for certain crosstabs.  E.g., here is the trendline for all polls on Trump's job approval among Republicans only:

link

Currently at 80.6% approve, 15.5% disapprove, for +65.1% approval.  Two weeks ago it was at +71%.

Damn that's about at Bush levels
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,858
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2017, 09:02:13 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2017, 04:33:44 AM by pbrower2a »

Blank map.



I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  



....To be filled in with some backtracking. Go ahead and Please do not comment on this map; until I say that I am complete in filling it in. I am dropping the Ohio approval poll as it is a composite.

Backtracking:

Utah 45-55 (Dan Jones)
Virginia  36-60 Washington Post, George Mason University, third-degree burn
Oklahoma 57-36 Sooner Poll (Oklahoma could be Trump's best state
Pennsylvania, 36-62 Franklin & Marshall College -- huge drop from 2016
New Hampshire, 43-47 U-New Hampshire
Wisconsin 39-59 St. Norbert's College
Colorado, 47-49, Magellan (usual votes in a primary in a midterm
Minnesota, 40-51 Star-Tribune
Ohio, favorability poll by Gravis (not using favorability polls in swing states)
North Carolina, 42-51, Elon
Washington, 40-56. Elway
Texas 42-55, Texas Lyceum (not that I really trust any poll of Texas)
Arkansas 53-39. Hendrix College, Talk Business
Montana 50-42, Gravis
New Jersey 28-61 Fairleigh-Dickinson University
New York 29-67. Quinnnipiac  
California, 31-61. PPIC
West Virginia, 58-37 Orion Stategies
Florida, 44-51 University of North Florida
Maryland, 29- 64 Baltimore Sun
Tennessee 51-32 Middle Tennessee State University
South Carolina, 44-47, Winthrop University
Iowa. Selzer 42-47
Michigan. EPIC/MRI 40-54
Arizona 39-49 Data Orbital (favorability) --possibly obsolete
Massachusetts, a composite on several issues, all but one of which has favorable expectations of less than 32%, WBUR  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  


Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2017, 12:03:53 AM »

Trump choking big time in the Republican stronghold of Staten Island:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Glad they're waking up.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2017, 07:03:58 AM »

Morning Consult/Politico

https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/19/trumps-approval-sinks-amid-avalanche-bad-headlines/

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,519
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2017, 07:08:25 AM »


Yikes, he's in a free fall in this poll.


Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2017, 07:47:58 AM »


crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -12
Northeast: -16
South: -5
West: -18

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -3
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -21

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -17
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -8

14% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,315


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2017, 07:55:33 AM »

Trump choking big time in the Republican stronghold of Staten Island:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Glad they're waking up.

That SI poll is highly dubious. It has DeBlasio doing extremely well there too, which is definitely not the case.

It's just a Staten Island subsample of a city-wide poll. I doubt the subsample is very big.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,519
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »

Trump choking big time in the Republican stronghold of Staten Island:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Glad they're waking up.

That SI poll is highly dubious. It has DeBlasio doing extremely well there too, which is definitely not the case.

De Blasio and Trump's approval in Staten Island are about the same.

De Blasio

37% Approve
57% Disapprove

Trump

40% Approve
57% Disapprove

Cuomo on the other hand is popular in Staten Island:

68% Approve
28% Disapprove

Source
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,858
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2017, 09:19:45 AM »


crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -12
Northeast: -16
South: -5
West: -18

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -3
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -21

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -17
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -8

14% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


If approval ratings are good proxies for voting, then I can imagine the following states and districts flipping:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

====TRUMP LOSES====

ME-02
North  Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Iowa

===2012=style Obama victory  ===

Arizona
Georgia
NE-02

Beyond this, things get weird. Texas?
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2017, 11:15:45 AM »


crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -12
Northeast: -16
South: -5
West: -18

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -3
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -21

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -17
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -8

14% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


If approval ratings are good proxies for voting, then I can imagine the following states and districts flipping:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

====TRUMP LOSES====

ME-02
North  Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Iowa

===2012=style Obama victory  ===

Arizona
Georgia
NE-02

Beyond this, things get weird. Texas?


Arizona, Georgia, and NE-02 were all closer than Ohio and Iowa FWIW.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,315


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2017, 12:54:11 PM »

Gallup
Approve: 38 (nc)
Disapprove: 56 (nc)
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2017, 02:18:55 PM »

Reuters/Ipsos (5-day rolling):

Approve: 38.0% (-0.7)
Disapprove: 56.2% (+0.7)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170120-20170519/collapsed/true/spotlight/1
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 78  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 11 queries.