Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Daniel909012]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Nothing? Mueller has proven himself to be just a senile madman and the media has filtered nothing but trash.

[Kamala]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Nothing? Mueller has proven himself to be just a senile madman and the media has filtered nothing but trash.

I agree, there is a senile madman in the government. Only his initials are DJT, not RSM.

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Be careful about what you hope for. We may have a President that unpopular with no means of removing him until 2020.  In the event of his extreme stupidity or recklessness, we could be set up for a military coup. 

[KingSweden]

Gallup (September 4th)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

He has peaked already.

Eh day to day approval are meaningless

[Matty]

Why do firms like ras and gallup even bother doing daily approval polls?

[TheSaint250]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Be careful about what you hope for. We may have a President that unpopular with no means of removing him until 2020.  In the event of his extreme stupidity or recklessness, we could be set up for a military coup. 

...or the peaceful invoking of the 25th Amendment.

[Frodo]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

It's sad we can't rely on Congress to do the investigations themselves. 

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Be careful about what you hope for. We may have a President that unpopular with no means of removing him until 2020.  In the event of his extreme stupidity or recklessness, we could be set up for a military coup. 

...or the peaceful invoking of the 25th Amendment.

1. If Pence is in any way involved in the Trump corruption, then he must go.

2. Democrats surely want some say in who the next VP is -- because that person will be President. They obviously won't get someone like Russ Feingold, but they can be sure that the Republican shows some spine.

3. Any impeachment will be non-partisan. It will have to be. It may be Democrats who hold the cards. Sure, they despise Trump, but they do not want an extremist.

[American2020]

Michigan voters are asking about his mentel health.
http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/06/michigan-poll-president-trump-mental-health/634859001/

[Brittain33]

Why do firms like ras and gallup even bother doing daily approval polls?

Presumably so they can market and sell private daily tracking polls to private clients.

[pbrower2a]

EPIC/MRI, Michigan:

Job performance -- negative, 62%.

Michiganders questioning  the mental stability of the President. -- 43% unstable, 45% stable

More effective: Obama 56%, Trump 32%

Investigations against him a "witch-hunt" -- agree 34%, disagree 55% (disagreement is hostile to the President's credibility)

Worry about the President handling North Korea -- 38% very worried, 15% somewhat worried   

Overall

36% favorable, 58% unfavorable


I do not use favorability polls anymore, so this will not appear on the map. But there is new data to show some flavor to the perception of the President.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/06/michigan-poll-president-trump-mental-health/634859001/

[Inmate Trump]

Anytime I see someone here posting a fantasy 2020 map with Michigan being a toss-up or going to Trump, it confuses me.  He won't win it again; his numbers are just so bad there.

The only way he wins Michigan in 2020 is if Russia actually succeeds in tampering with individual vote totals...which might happen, unfortunately.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cant wait to see his approvals drop to the 20's once Mueller reveals everything he and his team have discovered.

Be careful about what you hope for. We may have a President that unpopular with no means of removing him until 2020.  In the event of his extreme stupidity or recklessness, we could be set up for a military coup. 

...or the peaceful invoking of the 25th Amendment.

1. If Pence is in any way involved in the Trump corruption, then he must go.

2. Democrats surely want some say in who the next VP is -- because that person will be President. They obviously won't get someone like Russ Feingold, but they can be sure that the Republican shows some spine.

3. Any impeachment will be non-partisan. It will have to be. It may be Democrats who hold the cards. Sure, they despise Trump, but they do not want an extremist.

I think it's highly doubtful that impeachment happens. There may be a slim chance after Mueller concluded his investigation, as far as Trump is concerned. Pence won't be impeached and I even question that he was involved in Russiagate. If, big if, Pence were to become prez, he'd not ask for Dem support as far as new VP is concerened as long as there is a GOP majority in congress. But that's all pure speculation. I believe we have stick with Trump at least until January 2021.

[pbrower2a]

Anytime I see someone here posting a fantasy 2020 map with Michigan being a toss-up or going to Trump, it confuses me.  He won't win it again; his numbers are just so bad there.

The only way he wins Michigan in 2020 is if Russia actually succeeds in tampering with individual vote totals...which might happen, unfortunately.

DEM  REP  DIS ΔEV  STATES
000  538   80   03      DC
003  535   71   58      CA VT
061  477   66   11      MA
072  466   65   14      NJ
086  452   64   10      MD
096  442   62   29      NY 
125  413   61   13      VA
138  400   59   24      CT HI WA
161  377   58   20      IL
181  357   57   45      CO MI MN WI
222  312   56   15      DE NM OR
241  297   55   32      ME* NH PA RI TIPPING POINT/ZONE
273  265   54   11      AZ
284  254   53   06      NV
290  248   52   53      FL IA OH
343  195   51   36      TX
381  157   50   37      GA NC UT
418  120   48   16      IN WV
434  104   47   06      AR
440  098   46   19      MS MO MT
459  079   44   12      ND SC
471  067   43   16      LA NE* SD
487  051   42   29      ID KS KY TN
516  022   39   22      AL OK WY
538  000

*Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes.

ME-01 is more Democratic than Maine at large, which is more Democratic than ME-02 (which went to Donald Trump in 2016). Maine-01 is somewhat urban southern Maine, including Portland, and ME-02 is very rural, comprising central and northern Maine.

NE-02 (mostly Greater Omaha inside Nebraska) is less Democratic than ME-02, so in a normal election it is more likely that Maine gives an electoral vote for a Republican than that Nebraska gives an electoral vote to a Democrat. But NE-02 went for Barack Obama in 2008. It is much more Democratic than Nebraska as a whole. NE-01, eastern Nebraska (including Lincoln and some parts of Greater Omaha) is slightly more Democratic than Nebraska as a whole. NE-03, including very rural central and western Nebraska (including Scottsbluff and Grand Island) is one of the most Republican districts in the USA, and is so strongly Republican that

(1) it can easily swing the state at large Republican, and
(2) it could conceivably offer the single electoral vote for a Republican nominee for President.

Descriptions of the states and their districts are

ME-01 -- very strong D
ME at large  -- strong D
ME-02  -- very weak D
NE-02  --  weak R
NE-01  -- strong R
NE at large -- very strong R
NE-03 -- almost as reliably R as the District of Columbia is reliably D

...I look at Michigan in 2016 and see the state as a freakish event as a Trump win, something like Obama winning Indiana in 2008. Obama barely won Indiana because a combination of high gas prices, a credit crunch with high interest rates, and a sudden implosion of the overall economy. That flipped the RV industry from R to D, among other things. Add to that, Obama campaigned much more heavily in Indiana than any Democrat has campaigned since Truman (who barely lost Indiana) in 1948. By 2012 the problems were solved, and Obama knew that Indiana would be far more difficult to hold onto. It may be paradoxical, but Obama's successful stewardship of the economy may have allowed Indiana to go back to its norm as a strong Republican state in Presidential elections.

The difference between Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016 should be obvious now.  Obama won a near-landslide in 2008; Trump didn't even get a plurality of the vote, so Trump can lose much less and win re-election.

Every President does things or neglects things that will lose him some support in the next election. In the case of Barack Obama, it is what he is. America was desperate enough to elect a black man as President. In 2012 America was no longer so desperate. The Obama administration was squeaky-clean, spit-and-polish government  that showed respect for protocol and precedent, which is one way of avoiding trouble if not building support.

Donald Trump is about as effective at avoiding trouble as Jimmy Carter... which is one way of saying, he is likely to have a Presidency that ends much the same way. I look at the disapproval numbers and figure that the maximum vote for re-election for President Trump just about anywhere is 100 less disapproval. People who disapprove of the President yet can't quite vote for the Democratic nominee will likely have a third-party or independent alternative. That could include Libertarian, Reform, and Constitution.

A Democrat will win the Presidency with every state in maroon (56% disapproval) or green (55% disapproval). A Republican will win the Presidency with every state in any shade of blue, pink, medium red, and five electoral votes from states in dark green -- if one uses disapproval as the measure of winning and losing. Anything below the green line for a Democrat is an addition o0f cushion to a win. Only one state that Trump lost (Nevada) disapproves of him by less than 55% -- but just barely, at 53%. Nevada will not be a 'must win' for a Democratic nominee for President.

Disapproval is far more difficult to undo than approval is to gain.  Trust and faith, once squandered, are hard to recover. 

Can an incumbent win with 55% or more disapproval? Only against someone extremely inept as a campaigner (think of Walter Mondale, but Reagan did not have many problems with disapproval) or someone with big problems (erupting scandal?) Surprise wins and losses appear just below 50% approval. For now that suggests states that Democrats now almost never win.

We have yet to see how responses to Hurricane Harvey will affect polling in any state -- but the state most afflicted has not voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1976. Hurricane Irma, off the Atlantic Coast, is projected to reach Category 5...   

[Virginiá]

Gallup (September 5th)

Approve 37% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

[American2020]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

Still a little disheartening to see that 77% of O/T voters still support Chief Orange-Face.

[BlueSwan]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

Still a little disheartening to see that 77% of O/T voters still support Chief Orange-Face.

Another depressing takeway is that only 6% of all Trump voters actively regret voting for him. That's an astoundingly small number given how much of a trainwreck his presidency has been.

[PoliticalShelter]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

Having only 2% of Romney-Clinton voters approve of Trump, should be making those Suburban Sunbelt republicans get really sweaty.

Also having 70% of Obama-Trump voters still approve of Trump is puzzling, when you see that Trumps approval rating in the Midwest is awful.

[pbrower2a]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

Still a little disheartening to see that 77% of O/T voters still support Chief Orange-Face.

Another depressing takeway is that only 6% of all Trump voters actively regret voting for him. That's an astoundingly small number given how much of a trainwreck his presidency has been.

Six percent of Trump voters is enough to swing not only Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin away from him, but probably also Florida. And that is solely from mechanical application of mathematics. See also Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio.

I see him vulnerable to a Third Party challenger in Utah. 

[Gass3268]

Gallup (September 6th)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[Tekken_Guy]

Poll: Obama-Trump voters drifting away from the president
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-obama-voters-poll-242334

Having only 2% of Romney-Clinton voters approve of Trump, should be making those Suburban Sunbelt republicans get really sweaty.

Also having 70% of Obama-Trump voters still approve of Trump is puzzling, when you see that Trumps approval rating in the Midwest is awful.

The main takeaway here is that Obama-Trump voters can easily swing back to the Democrats but Romney-Clinton voters are likely done with the GOP for good.

[The Mikado]

6% of Trump voters regretting their choice is huge. If his national vote share drops from 46% to 43% (what that would indicate), well, that's the whole ball game right there.

[Person Man]

6% of Trump voters regretting their choice is huge. If his national vote share drops from 46% to 43% (what that would indicate), well, that's the whole ball game right there.

Provided only 6% go 3rd party again and turnout doesnt't suffer much, he will lose all of tge competitive states he won. He will probably have Texas, Iowa, and Ohio narrowly voting for him.

[Matty]

Rassy being rassy

Djt randomly pops to 45% again for no apparent reason