Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[HisGrace]

If he's having another downturn what do we think the cause is? Is it the response to Puerto Rico finally showing up in the polls?

[Doimper]

Ipsos

Disapprove 58.7%
Approve 35.6%
Mixed feelings 5.6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

That crosstab interface is awesome. Interestingly, every employment category has 62%+ disapproval - except for retirees, at 47-45 disapproval. Huh.

[Person Man]

Ipsos

Disapprove 58.7%
Approve 35.6%
Mixed feelings 5.6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

That crosstab interface is awesome. Interestingly, every employment category has 62%+ disapproval - except for retirees, at 47-45 disapproval. Huh.

They don't give a rat's ass anymore as long as they are not triggered.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos

Disapprove 58.7%
Approve 35.6%
Mixed feelings 5.6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

Thereby proving that really bad poll the other day wasn't an outlier.

Not yet, it's a decrease from the last Reuters poll. AP may have set a trend.

[Daniel909012]

The previous survey was garbage, where is 67% disapproval?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The previous survey was garbage, where is 67% disapproval?

Oh hey you're back, Daniel! How is Skopje this time of year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

[Dr. Arch]

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

An even split among rural votes is a huge danger sign for Trump.

[American2020]

State of New York

Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 68%
Don't know/No opinion: 4%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0917_Crosstabs.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

"Trump is on track to win reelection."

[Virginiá]

Gallup (October 8th)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[pbrower2a]

If he's having another downturn what do we think the cause is? Is it the response to Puerto Rico finally showing up in the polls?

This could be.

All of America is at risk of some natural disaster -- blizzards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, and [possibly] tsunamis or volcanic eruptions... Dealing with natural disasters is part of the job of the President, who has great resources (the Armed Services for rescues and the Treasury for reconstruction). Although the President might get no electoral credit for doing what is expected of him, as with Obama and some tornadoes... but should he bungle a relief effort, the President gets raked over the political coals. He should be raked over the coals for that.

The Red River (of the North) forms the boundary between Minnesota and North Dakota. Minnesota is usually Democratic in Presidential elections. It is also extremely vulnerable to floods because it thaws from south to north. Two of the larger cities of North Dakota,  Fargo and Grand Forks are in its flood plain. I could imagine Minnesota going for the Republican nominee if a Democratic President bungles flood relief along the Red River (because he is also bungling it on some vulnerable rivers in Minnesota). But could a Republican President have trouble with winning North Dakota in the event of a bungled response to the flood? Maybe.  

When the President bungles hurricane relief to Puerto Rico he scares the rest of us Americans.  His self-praise looks bad, too.  

[pbrower2a]

State of New York

Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 68%
Don't know/No opinion: 4%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0917_Crosstabs.pdf

Like throwing candle-wax on a gasoline fire. At this rate, Trump will be lucky to avoid losing his home state by 40%.

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

Figuring that the American rural vote has gone Republican in every Presidential election since 1964, this is really bad news for the President, and quite possibly for the GOP. This may explain surprisingly-poor approval ratings for the President in such states as Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska. West Virginia, too?  

The farm vote and the ranch vote are big chunks of the rural population and of course practically absent from urban populations. The farm vote is largely to the east of the 100th meridian, and the ranch vote is largely to the west of the 100th meridian. If the President is losing the farm vote, then he is losing not only 'urban' states with large rural populations like Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Ohio and Iowa -- maybe Indiana as well. West Virginia isn;t cattle-ranch country, so this could explain why the approval and disapproval ratings for West Virginia are so close.

If it is the ranch vote, then he could be losing Montana, which is much smaller game. But even such states as Nebraska,  North Dakota and South Dakota have some urban areas, so President  Trump could lose the Dakotas by splitting the rural vote evenly and losing such places as Bismarck, Fargo, Minot, Grand Forks, Rapid City, and Sioux Falls. We know about Greater Omaha and thus NE-02... but if Trump loses the farm vote he loses NE-01 as well. Then there's Texas. Texas has some very Right-leaning cities (Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, Wichita Falls), but it also has some giant cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio) and near-giant cities (Fort Worth, Austin, El Paso) and the heavily-Democratic areas in the lower Rio Grande Valley that go heavily Democratic. Splitting the rural areas while Trump loses the cities (and don't be fooled by suburban-fringe counties of Dallas and Houston having gone R for a long time; they are drifting D as have suburbs with similar demographics).

But what about race, patriotism, guns, and religion? Rural areas outside the South are not particularly racist. Should the American rural vote have more of a North-South split than the farm-ranch split, then President Trump might do sort-of-OK in the South but get clobbered in the rural North. Guns? Liberals are wise to avoid talking about gun control. Patriotism? The rural areas of America give more than their share of the members of the American Armed Services. Parents of soldiers may be patriotic, but they have little cause to cherish any reckless saber-rattling, let alone aggression. Religion? Donald Trump doesn't seem particularly Christian. If the even split of rural America gives President Trump an edge in the South in the rural vote, then the Democrat could easily win a map that looks like an Eisenhower win in the 1950s -- or Obama 2008 with the High Plains added.

Donald Trump surely knows less about rural America than does Obama, who at least won Illinois in a landslide in his Senate race and did better in non-southern rural America in 2008 than the usual northern Democrat.

Over size image

 



  
 

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  


45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

[DrScholl]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-popularity-slipping-rural-america-poll-110735355.html

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[GeorgiaModerate]

See also the Trump approval megathread (it's been discussed there already).

[Dr. Arch]

Slip, slime, SLIP.

[PoliticalShelter]

I wonder whether this is concentrated in one region like the Midwest or if it's a more broader national trend.

[American2020]

Pennsylvania

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http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

http://abc27.com/spr-fall-2017-pa-statewide-omnibus-poll/

I insist about registered voters since I read Doug Sosnik's opinion about Trump's re-election.

[Blackacre]

Pennsylvania

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http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

http://abc27.com/spr-fall-2017-pa-statewide-omnibus-poll/

I insist about registered voters since I read Doug Sosnik's opinion about Trump's re-election.

Okay, ouch. What's their beef with Casey?

[pbrower2a]

State of New York

Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 68%
Don't know/No opinion: 4%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0917_Crosstabs.pdf

Like throwing candle-wax on a gasoline fire. At this rate, Trump will be lucky to avoid losing his home state by 40%.



That’s the main conclusion from a new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll commissioned by ABC27. The numbers are dismal for two Democrats seeking re-election next year and for the Republican in the White House less than a year.

The poll was conducted the last week of September among registered voters across Pennsylvania.

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 37 percent approved, 53 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided.

http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

A bit old now. Susquehanna Polling tends to skew Republican, so this is awful. 

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

Figuring that the American rural vote has gone Republican in every Presidential election since 1964, this is really bad news for the President, and quite possibly for the GOP. This may explain surprisingly-poor approval ratings for the President in such states as Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska. West Virginia, too?  

The farm vote and the ranch vote are big chunks of the rural population and of course practically absent from urban populations. The farm vote is largely to the east of the 100th meridian, and the ranch vote is largely to the west of the 100th meridian. If the President is losing the farm vote, then he is losing not only 'urban' states with large rural populations like Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Ohio and Iowa -- maybe Indiana as well. West Virginia isn;t cattle-ranch country, so this could explain why the approval and disapproval ratings for West Virginia are so close.

If it is the ranch vote, then he could be losing Montana, which is much smaller game. But even such states as Nebraska,  North Dakota and South Dakota have some urban areas, so President  Trump could lose the Dakotas by splitting the rural vote evenly and losing such places as Bismarck, Fargo, Minot, Grand Forks, Rapid City, and Sioux Falls. We know about Greater Omaha and thus NE-02... but if Trump loses the farm vote he loses NE-01 as well. Then there's Texas. Texas has some very Right-leaning cities (Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, Wichita Falls), but it also has some giant cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio) and near-giant cities (Fort Worth, Austin, El Paso) and the heavily-Democratic areas in the lower Rio Grande Valley that go heavily Democratic. Splitting the rural areas while Trump loses the cities (and don't be fooled by suburban-fringe counties of Dallas and Houston having gone R for a long time; they are drifting D as have suburbs with similar demographics).

But what about race, patriotism, guns, and religion? Rural areas outside the South are not particularly racist. Should the American rural vote have more of a North-South split than the farm-ranch split, then President Trump might do sort-of-OK in the South but get clobbered in the rural North. Guns? Liberals are wise to avoid talking about gun control. Patriotism? The rural areas of America give more than their share of the members of the American Armed Services. Parents of soldiers may be patriotic, but they have little cause to cherish any reckless saber-rattling, let alone aggression. Religion? Donald Trump doesn't seem particularly Christian. If the even split of rural America gives President Trump an edge in the South in the rural vote, then the Democrat could easily win a map that looks like an Eisenhower win in the 1950s -- or Obama 2008 with the High Plains added.

Donald Trump surely knows less about rural America than does Obama, who at least won Illinois in a landslide in his Senate race and did better in non-southern rural America in 2008 than the usual northern Democrat.


Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  


45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.