Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[American2020]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

And here's just approval:

It's funny how this doesn't take into account a real poll out of Utah.

I have the link.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

[Gass3268]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

And here's just approval:

It's funny how this doesn't take into account a real poll out of Utah.

I have the link.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

I loled at the reason Sarah Palin left office.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Beautiful flawless Rasmussen

LV:
48%
52%


From 44% last week.

[Wiz in Wis]

Still dropping like a rock in Reuters/Ipsos though

37% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

For the record, this is 538's most heavily weighted poll, as it has a very high n and has an A+ pollster rating.

[I Won - Get Over It]

YouGov, May 20-23 compared to May 13-16
All Adults:
39 (-/-)
51 (-/-)
RV:
40 (+1)
53 (-1)


Morning Consult, May 18-22 compared to May 16-18
RV:
46 (+5)
50 (-2)


Ipsos, May 18-22 compared to May 13-17
All Adults:
37 (-2)
57 (+1)
LV:
36 (-5)
58 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 20-23 compared to May 13-16
All Adults:
39 (-/-)
51 (-/-)
RV:
40 (+1)
53 (-1)


Morning Consult, May 18-22 compared to May 16-18
RV:
46 (+5)
50 (-2)


Ipsos, May 18-22 compared to May 13-17
All Adults:
37 (-2)
57 (+1)
LV:
36 (-5)
58 (+3)

Ipsos must have traded some of their pro-Trump respondents to Morning Consult.

[windjammer]

YouGov, May 20-23 compared to May 13-16
All Adults:
39 (-/-)
51 (-/-)
RV:
40 (+1)
53 (-1)


Morning Consult, May 18-22 compared to May 16-18
RV:
46 (+5)
50 (-2)


Ipsos, May 18-22 compared to May 13-17
All Adults:
37 (-2)
57 (+1)
LV:
36 (-5)
58 (+3)

That means absolutely nothing,...

[OneJ]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

And here's just approval:

It's funny how this doesn't take into account a real poll out of Utah.

I have the link.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

Yeah honestly I wouldn't be too surprised to see him 1 point underwater here in MS. Start off with Blacks (Democratic) base (~36% maybe?) + other minorities (~2%). I have to remember that Dems disapprove of Trump more than Republicans actually approve. So if that's the case, if you add 9% of whites (Republican or not) then it could be true.

Now if the ACHA passes, it may definitely be true. However, I'm a pessimist so I'm not gonna get my hopes up.

[pbrower2a]

Beautiful flawless Rasmussen

LV:
48%
52%


From 44% last week.

That's a likely voter screen for 2010 and 2014. Anyone who believes that the political climate of 2018 will be much the same as those of 2010 or 2014 is drinking something other than a diet cola (which is what I am now drinking).
 

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 23rd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-1)

[pbrower2a]

The "Q" again.

   May 24, 2017 - American Voters Believe Trump Is Abusing His Powers, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Job Approval Remains At Historic Low       

American voters believe 54 - 43 percent that President Donald Trump is abusing the powers of his office, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

President Trump gets a negative 37 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 36 - 58 percent approval in a May 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University. Today, voters over 65 years old, divided in earlier surveys, now disapprove 53 - 42 percent. Trump has a negative 36 - 54 percent approval among independent voters, an improvement from his negative 29 - 63 percent two weeks ago.

The president is under water among every party, gender, educational, age and racial group except Republicans, who approve 84 - 13 percent; white voters with no college degree, who approve 52 - 40 percent, and white men who are split 47 - 46 percent.

Trump fired FBI Director James Comey to disrupt the investigation into possible ties between the Russian government and the Trump campaign, 55 percent of voters believe. Another 36 percent say Trump lost confidence in Comey's ability to lead the FBI.

American voters disapprove 54 - 36 percent of the Comey firing. The firing was an abuse of power, 49 percent say, while 47 percent say it was not an abuse.

Voters do not believe 54 - 31 percent Trump's claim that Comey told him on three separate occasions that the president was not under investigation.

"President Donald Trump remains mired in dreadful mid 30s approval numbers and the red flags that are popping up tell an even darker story," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Retirement age voters are leaving in big numbers," Malloy added.

"But by far the most alarming determination is that President Trump is abusing his office."

Voters do believe 55 - 27 percent that Trump asked Comey to drop the FBI investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

The matter should be investigated by the U.S. House of Representatives, voters say 62 - 33 percent.

American voters support 66 - 30 percent the appointment of a special prosecutor to look into possible ties between Trump campaign advisors and the Russian government.

A total of 68 percent of voters say alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election is a "very important" or "somewhat important" issue.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2460

[Gass3268]

[Wiz in Wis]

Memo to GOP - Your base hates your health care bill.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if 2018 or 2020 could be the first time in generations that white college graduates post unambiguous majority (or at least plurality) support for Democrats. Those approval numbers among that demographic are abysmal, and it's very difficult to see how that doesn't somewhat translate to votes against Republicans next year.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Quinnipiac University, May 17-23 compared to May 4-9


RV:
37 (+1)
55 (-3)

[Ronnie]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

[Gass3268]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40% (-5)
Disapprove: 53% (+5)

Added numbers to compare to their last poll.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Fox News, May 21-23 compared to April 23-25


RV:
40 (-5)
53 (-5)


Added dates and type of the poll ()

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

Ouch.

[Inmate Trump]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

I wonder how Fox spun this.

Is it a fake poll?

[pbrower2a]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

I wonder how Fox spun this.

Is it a fake poll?

It is within the margin of error of other pollsters.

FoX typically uses objective pollsters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its bad enough for the prez to have 45%, 40% approvals, its gonna be another 2010.

[pbrower2a]

Here is my compilation of Nate Silver's estimates of approval for President Trump.

We can assume that approval ratings reflect the perception of competence and desirability of the President's efforts. Nate Silver does not use existing polls; he has an algorithm, and it is a suitable alternative to a compilation of polls as I have, at the least for completeness.

States in maroon are reasonably assumed hopeless for any Republican nominee short of the new Ronald Reagan against a very weak Democratic opponent, and the approval rating that Nate Silver estimates for Trump in those states largely so indicates. He estimates that the President's approval ratings in such states based upon his algorithm is at or below 30%.

So let's lump the states into categories

ap rate      Dem   Trp
>= 30%     115   423
31-36%     187   359
36-41%     323   215
42%         374   164
44%         412   126
46-47%     430   208
47%         433   105
48-49%     450   188
50% or more -- Do you really need to know?

Should he win the states in other than those in maroon and medium red, then he has an electoral result similar to that of Obama in 2012. But that implies that he wins states in pink in which he has approval ratings between than 36% and 41% (which cuts off New Mexico, which went to Clinton by 8%, which is a reasonable limit for saying what is close and what isn't), and contains North Carolina (a 4% win for Trump in 2016) which asks for a 'yuge' changes in political expectations and reality. The good news for President Trump  is that he has almost three and a half years in which to make that work.  The bad news is that he has little room for pushing an unpopular agenda or for any economic meltdown or foreign disaster. As a reminder, Jimmy Carter was doing far better at a comparable time into his single term as President. 

All states in pink were close in 2016. Donald Trump will need to win at least three of those with fifteen or more electoral votes, as they include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Florida. But having approvals of 41% or less at this stage just does not look good for the prospect of a re-election of President Trump in states that were close in 2016.

Next come states in which President Trump has an estimated approval rating of 42% -- Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona and Georgia were fairly close in 2016, but they haven't gone to a Democratic nominee for President since the 1990s. Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice but swung strongly for Trump.  These states comprise 51 electoral votes, and every one of them will be a must-win state for President Trump except for Iowa (only six electoral votes). President Trump is severely underwater in these states. I color them aqua.

Texas is a category in itself, a state straddling regions and having great diversity en economic life and ethnicity. A right-wing Republican should normally be very popular in Texas, at least since 2000 -- but it looks to have reverted to being on the margin of competitiveness.  Trump won it by about the same margin by which he lost New Mexico. It is the second-largest prize in electoral votes. Should President Trump lose Texas,  he is losing a landslide in which the Democratic challenger is getting over 400 electoral votes. Trump is underwater with only 44% approval and 49% approval. Texas is in lime green.  Texas might not be decided until December of 2020.

Bad as it might be for President Trump to be underwater in Alaska (not a Democratic win since 1964), or either Mississippi or South Carolina (last won by a Democratic nominee in 1976) -- he is barely underwater in those three states with approval ratings of 46% or 47%. Medium green.

Where the President is tied at 47%  (Indiana and Missouri in pale blue
he will likely win by mid-single digits, demonstrating the weakness of his defense of his record.  States in which he has just less than 50% approval (in medium blue) he will probably win with high single digits. Those in which he has an approval rating of 50%  (in navy) or more will go for President Trump by double digits. 

Note that Nate Silver does not distinguish the districts of Maine and Nebraska.

 

[Gass3268]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

[windjammer]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?