Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 9th)

Approve 36% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

[Xing]

Hard to believe Pennsylvania actually went for Trump, looking at those numbers...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zogby, Aug 3-7, 1300 LV

Approve 44.5 (Strongly 20.1)
Disapprove 50.6 (Strongly 38.6)

[BudgieForce]

I dont know whats sadder. Trump tweeting a Zogby poll, or thinking 45% is actually something to be proud about.

[Mike Thick]

I dont know whats sadder. Trump tweeting a Zogby poll, or thinking 45% is actually something to be proud about.

Write-in: that they think Trump's approvals randomly tripled to 42% among Hispanics

[Brittain33]

Gallup (August 10th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[Matty]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

[BudgieForce]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

[Matty]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

Are they bad(ish) pollsters because of the nature of daily tracking?

[BudgieForce]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

Are they bad(ish) pollsters because of the nature of daily tracking?

Rasmussen was among the most inaccurate pollsters in 2012. Not only was Rasmussen's national polls(which I believe was a tracking poll) majorly off but there state polls were even worse. Gallup was off by the same amount nationally as Rasmussen in 2012, but they didnt do state polling which means they didnt get the same amount of heat. My point though, Rasmussen was majorly off in EVERY swing state poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And of course, guess which poll is all over the news today? Rasmussen.

[BudgieForce]

And of course, guess which poll is all over the news today? Rasmussen.

And Rasmussen will be completely ignored again when they show Trump under 40% in a week.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 37% (+-0)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

Holding pretty steady here.

[henster]

GRAVIS

44/54

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/896447267074342916

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'd imagine his blunder over the Charlottesville incident will squander his approval rating again.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd imagine his blunder over the Charlottesville incident will squander his approval rating again.

Maybe a point or two, but more likely it just prevents a rebound.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+2)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+2)

So bust goes the Rasmussen bubble.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

[Holmes]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

Maybe for a day or two, then a small rebound. But Ernest is right when he says it'll further cement his disapprovals. Which are already horrible.

[pbrower2a]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

There aren't more than about 10K members of Klan groups and 10K members of neo-Nazi groups, with some significant overlaps.

There will be people who believe that those who got hurt or killed had it coming... but political violence is held in extreme contempt in America. People who get the news will figure out what is going on and recognize the Alt-Right for an intent to stir up trouble and getting it.

People who already see Donald Trump as a weak or malign leader will not be convinced otherwise with some hollow condemnation of these deeds. 

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

There aren't more than about 10K members of Klan groups and 10K members of neo-Nazi groups, with some significant overlaps.

There will be people who believe that those who got hurt or killed had it coming... but political violence is held in extreme contempt in America. People who get the news will figure out what is going on and recognize the Alt-Right for an intent to stir up trouble and getting it.

People who already see Donald Trump as a weak or malign leader will not be convinced otherwise with some hollow condemnation of these deeds. 

Are you sure that there's only 10 thousand KKK members/neo-Nazis in America? The rally itself had up to 6k people, so I would expect that there would be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of militant far-rightists. Millions if you include members of the alt-right who only post their views online. And I would guess a fifth to two-fifths of the country sympathizes with the cultural nationalism of those people, even if they don't agree with the violence or the Nazi imagery (e.g. a lot of Trump voters).

And would Americans be as ready to denounce far-right violence as far-left violence? I know for sure that violence caused by minorities causes harsher backlash than violence caused by whites (e.g. compare the police response to this rally compared to the police response to most BLM protests).

[pbrower2a]

10K each, except for allowing some overlap. Charlottesville is within a day's drive from places about as far away as Wisconsin, Missouri, and Louisiana for American fascists, many of whom generally avoid the Klan and the Nazis. After all there are some more 'sophisticated' people in the Alt Right who proclaim a more 'theoretical' basis of white supremacy.

This was apparently a big event for them.

Of course this is nothing like the Million Man March, the Women's March on Washington, or even the national Tea Party rallies. There will probably be more people making travels of more than 200 miles to witness the Great Eclipse of 2017 a week from Monday, for that matter, for what will be a largely apolitical event (although I can imagine people trying to exploit it for political purposes).

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel most Republicans will be standing by him. A lot of confressmen are condemning him because they're afraid of angering the Democrats. Most Republicans feel that the media whitewashing Antifa is worse than Trump not "specifically" calling out white supremacists. A lot of Democrats say that their side of the story is legitimized by what they stand for and the fact that the only death in the rally was one of them.