Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[BlueSwan]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

I'll go farther. That poll is super scary. Even as pessimistic as I am, I could hardly believe those numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Two big takeaways-

1. 48% of Trump supporters think white nationalists are either "right" or "have a point"

2. 31% of the public think the president supports white nationalism.

Versus only 22% who think he opposes it. 

[BlueSwan]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

I'll go farther. That poll is super scary. Even as pessimistic as I am, I could hardly believe those numbers.

I mean, almost HALF of the respondents agree with the INSANE proposition that there is "a lot of dicrimination against white people". I mean, for f**k's sake. How ignorant would you have to be to honestly believe that. Jesus.

[Clarence Boddicker]

I don't see how you can look at those numbers and not say most Republicans are racist. That party has gone completely off the rails.

[Person Man]

Two big takeaways-

1. 48% of Trump supporters think white nationalists are either "right" or "have a point"

2. 31% of the public think the president supports white nationalism.

So the altRght is about a fourth of the public.

[BlueSwan]

I don't see how you can look at those numbers and not say most Republicans are racist. That party has gone completely off the rails.

Absolutely. There is NO excuse anymore.

[SoLongAtlas]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

I'll go farther. That poll is super scary. Even as pessimistic as I am, I could hardly believe those numbers.

I mean, almost HALF of the respondents agree with the INSANE proposition that there is "a lot of dicrimination against white people". I mean, for f**k's sake. How ignorant would you have to be to honestly believe that. Jesus.

It will only get worse as they continue to push this crap and the US sees more changes (see figure below) but will improve once the crazies start to diminish as a percent of the US population



I think we are heading to a Balkanization or a South African situation in American politics.

[SoLongAtlas]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

[pbrower2a]

The common idea that older millennials would be open to the GOP would be true if they GOP would moderate a la Huntsman, etc. but since that is not happening they won't and will stay Dem in huge numbers (analogous to the FDR Dem coalition). I am an older millennial and voted for Dem for the first time in '16 and support Northam here in VA because of how far to the right the GOP has gone.

I would, however, support a Centrist or Moderate Party should the GOP split in half, or should those parties become a real thing here in the US but that is some time off, imo.

The political center is badly represented in American political life.  There is such an ideological divide between elected Democrats and Republicans in Congress and nobody in the center. You may be well represented if you are a strong Republican in a district with a Republican Representative or if you are a strong Democrat in a district with a Democratic Representative. But if you are a Democrat with a Republican Representative you have a Representative who represents something very different from what you believe; see the same for a Republican in a district with a Democratic Representative.

I had a graphic available of the distribution of elected members of Congress and the electorate. The electorate has a distribution resembling a bell curve with a mode and median around an equilibrium between Democrats and Republicans, between Left and Right. But we have a bimodal distribution of elected Representatives with peaks well to the Left and Right with the center not covered at all.

This reality reflects much of our political pathology.  

[afleitch]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

I'll go farther. That poll is super scary. Even as pessimistic as I am, I could hardly believe those numbers.

I mean, almost HALF of the respondents agree with the INSANE proposition that there is "a lot of dicrimination against white people". I mean, for f**k's sake. How ignorant would you have to be to honestly believe that. Jesus.

It will only get worse as they continue to push this crap and the US sees more changes (see figure below) but will improve once the crazies start to diminish as a percent of the US population



I think we are heading to a Balkanization or a South African situation in American politics.

I think the US will secularise at a faster rate; it's maybe about 20 years behind Europe now but 10 years behind in the 18-34 cohort.

[BlueSwan]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

Yup. I never believed that there was much of a correlation. The whole idea that people vote for right wing populists (not just Trump, but all over the world) due to economic anxiety is basically bull. There just happens to be a correlation between low education and adherence to right wing populist ideas, that is unrelated to actual income levels.

[Adam Griffin]

I wouldn't necessarily think that the "better economics -> better racial relations" argument would apply at all to year-to-year changes - or even to those who are already fully grown and developed. I think if there is an argument to be made there, it relates more to a sustained economic effort that eliminates negative racial, ethnic or other types of sentiment from forming and hardening in those who come of age after the fact. In effect, it would take multiple generations.

For instance (in the context of this argument), the Civil Rights Era wouldn't have blossomed in the way it did because a bunch of 40, 50 and 60-somethings at the time benefited from the New Deal over 20-30 years and likewise suddenly changed their minds: it would have happened because those being raised and coming of age in the 1940s and 1950s had far more opportunity and were less likely to blame others for their malaise.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By god.... The House election is gonna be a bloodbath.

Unfortunately not. The House is so gerrymandered that at best the Democrats barely regain nominal control of the House.

If it's at 34% now, imagine how low it will be in by the midterms, especially if the Government shuts down over wall funding.

There no doubt will be brinksmanship, but I'll only believe a government shutdown is a real possibility when it actually happens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

[PragmaticPopulist]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

[KingSweden]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

[Badger]

Two big takeaways-

1. 48% of Trump supporters think white nationalists are either "right" or "have a point"

2. 31% of the public think the president supports white nationalism.

An even worse addition to point #1: Another 17% of Trump voters "aren't sure" about their views of the Neo-Nazi marcher's political views. NOT SURE?!??!?

Only 34%--1 in 3--of Trump voters thought they were "mostly wrong". I wished they'd asked "totally wrong".

[Badger]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

I'm going to question that summary about cotton prices. In high school honors history--yes, high school, but it was taught by a guy with his PhD in history and remains to this day one of the brightest guys who ever taught me, even including college and law school profs--explained how studies had shown the rise and fall of cotton prices had an almost exact mirror inverse trend to the rate of lynchings.

FWIW.

[Badger]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

That's also vastly better numbers for Confederate statues among Democrats then I would've ever dreamed. There has to be something beyond "Jim Webb Democrats" actually existing in non-negligible numbers.

[KingSweden]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

That's also vastly better numbers for Confederate statues among Democrats then I would've ever dreamed. There has to be something beyond "Jim Webb Democrats" actually existing in non-negligible numbers.

I suspect there's a level of nuance a poll can't capture. Define "remove"

[uti2]

]
Yup. I never believed that there was much of a correlation. The whole idea that people vote for right wing populists (not just Trump, but all over the world) due to economic anxiety is basically bull. There just happens to be a correlation between low education and adherence to right wing populist ideas, that is unrelated to actual income levels.

I'd suggest that you rethink that position. Also economics isn't solely about income (very little of it is) and all economics is felt in a cultural way so trying to separate the two in any meaningful way is futile.


But if we're really gonna dismiss that any rise in racial tensions is being fueled by macroeconomic trends (or just stop giving a sh*t about any of it) then I guess we'll just have to accept that American politics will devolve into South Africa style politics where whites increasingly vote more and more for the Republican Party while everyone else votes Democrat. It's an ugly future and there's nothing more tribal than skin color.

Maybe you should consider the context. Trump's prominent primary rivals were hardcore fiscal conservatives, just as Romney 2012 was. Trump offered something different:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/upshot/the-obama-trump-voters-are-real-heres-what-they-think.html

Romney and the Tea Party crew were much further to the right economically than even Bush 2000.

Bush barely 'won' with his Kasich-style compassionate conservative platform in 2000, what does that say about the chances of republicans to the right of Kasich?

[HisGrace]

Bush barely 'won' with his Kasich-style compassionate conservative platform in 2000, what does that say about the chances of republicans to the right of Kasich?

Who cares. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see candidate Mark Zuckerberg win on a subsidized mandatory abortion platform and in this ignorant country.

Nor would I be surprised to see this country Balkanize in my lifetime. It's polarized to civil war era levels (the bloodiest war in American history - wonderful) and it's only been getting worse throughout my entire life (born in 96').

I'm pretty conflicted on abortion, but if that's what you think makes people ignorant, as opposed to going along with Trump's "I'm going to do so much winning" platform, I don't know what to say.

[BlueSwan]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

That's also vastly better numbers for Confederate statues among Democrats then I would've ever dreamed. There has to be something beyond "Jim Webb Democrats" actually existing in non-negligible numbers.

I'm not sure that much can be deduced from the question on confederate statues. I mean, there are perfectly reasonable reasons why one might want to keep them as historical and cultural artifacts.

[Mike Thick]

Nor would I be surprised to see this country Balkanize in my lifetime. It's polarized to civil war era levels (the bloodiest war in American history - wonderful) and it's only been getting worse throughout my entire life (born in 96').

Eh, our country went through much worse in the Depression and came out the other end. That doesn't give us license to sit back and relax as democracy flails, of course, but I don't think the current political turmoil is an existential threat to the republic at this point.