Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Virginiá]

(Which is one way a Trump victory might be better long-term than a Clinton victory; imagine how much the alt-right's popularity would skyrocket if she was the president).

Yes, that is kind of a consolation prize with Trump's victory. What Democrats lost in policy and appointment capacity, they gained in terms of partisan advantage among the future electorate. Trump and the GOP are poisoning their brand among young people in ways similar to Bush, and while it's probable this toxic effect only lasts 4 years (one-term Trump), it'll be significant down the road. Since 1996, at least in terms of generational imprinting, each Democratic president has locked in the youth of their time while each Republican president has alienated them, leading to growing deficits for the GOP among everyone who isn't a Boomer (or older). That's a pretty awful losing streak, historically-speaking.

If the GOP wasn't so greedy for short-term power, they'd have tried their best to sink Trump, take a temporary beating, and then make a huge comeback in 2018 - 2020 with majorities that would probably be their largest in the Reagan era.

[ajc0918]

Trump in FL:

Approve 37
Disapprove 47
https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2017-08-28_BEPI_Results_with_Toplines.pdf

[Holmes]

They sure did a good job pushing those undecideds.

[pbrower2a]

Given that the Millennial generation is often judged as ending somewhere between 96 - 2001, the best time to see where generation z is going to end up is 2020. At that point, we'll have a handful of years in the 18 - 24 group as being genz, the number of years depending on when you think Millennials end. If they really trended more Republican, the 18-24 group should lean more Republican in 2020 compared to 2016. It's not enough for the Democrat to do a little worse, as even while Clinton performed worse among 18-24 year olds, Trump also performed worse than Romney, which was already pretty low.

Anything before then would be too ambiguous. Personally, I think that even if generation z ends up more conservative than Millennials, it won't be an immediate drop in vote share for Democrats. It would probably be a slow-ish decline, and highly doubtful it starts anytime soon. Republicans need to re-brand to make inroads with young minorities (or massive inroads with young whites) for that to happen. If it does, it'll probably be the tail-end of the genz that gets more Republican-leaning.

Also worth remembering: the Millennial Generation is beginning to reach the age (mid-30s) when some start the "high office" phase of political life. That means that they start becoming big-city mayors, State Governors, the US House, the US Senate, and Cabinet positions. To be sure, American political  leadership is often well described with the word geriatic, but that could be coming to an end. The Presidency will be out of reach for this generation until at least 2028, when the youngest of this generation reaches 46, roughly the age at which the youngest Presidents elected directly to office (Polk, Grant, Kennedy, and Obama) were elected.

Like other generations in the past, the Millennial Generation has its own economic concerns, political style -- and zones of indifference. Older generations -- Silent, Boom, and X -- do not speak its lingo. This generation is becoming a big chunk of the electorate, and low approval ratings for politicians in general reflect that older generations of politicians are failing to reach them for their concerns. It may be easy to see why President Trump has low approval ratings from all generations, including his fellow Boomers  due to incompetence, incoherence, and extremism -- but I have noticed that high-profile members of Congress fare badly even if they are nearly-diametric opposites in ideology and personality. That includes Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer as well as Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan.


Politicians whose rhetoric and achievement do not resonate with people under 35 will get lower approval ratings than otherwise.   They have been getting away with such approval ratings so far, but one can also ask how long they can get away with such.

Its easy to see how Barack Obama could do better than almost anyone else so prominent in political life when he was President, but if he is getting 60% or so approval ratings (not that I have seen such), then such will reflect nostalgia more than anything else. Trump is making President Obama look really, really good by contrast. But he rarely got approval ratings higher than 55% once the novelty wore off.

Of course it is not a reliable prediction that someone 34 will replace someone 74. But there will be openings, and as a rule, it will rarely be 64-year-olds who supplant 74-year-olds in high office.   Of course a Millennial pol will need to address the concerns of people older than themselves. But I expect to see that. Nature abhors a vacuum.   

 

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 28th)

Approve 35% (-/-)
Disapprove 60% (-/-)

[Kamala]

Gallup (August 28th)

Approve 35% (-/-)
Disapprove 60% (-/-)

The new normal, folks.

[Doimper]

Pew: 36-63

http://www.people-press.org/2017/08/29/republicans-divided-in-views-of-trumps-conduct-democrats-are-broadly-critical/

RIP undecideds

[Crumpets]

For the last four months or so, Trump's approval has been consistently within 5 points of where Gerald Ford's approval was at this point. However, his disapproval has been consistently 10+ points higher.

That being said, Ford had to face reelection two years sooner than Trump will have to.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup (August 28th)

Approve 35% (-/-)
Disapprove 60% (-/-)

The new normal, folks.

Have his approvals/disapprovals ever stayed exactly the same for four days in a row before?

[Brittain33]

Gallup (August 28th)

Approve 35% (-/-)
Disapprove 60% (-/-)

The new normal, folks.

It's like Harvey stalled over Houston.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Pew: 36-63

http://www.people-press.org/2017/08/29/republicans-divided-in-views-of-trumps-conduct-democrats-are-broadly-critical/

Those are party-brand damaging types of numbers.

Congressional Republicans are kidding themselves if they think they'll be able to escape this mess.

[Dr. Arch]

Pew: 36-63

http://www.people-press.org/2017/08/29/republicans-divided-in-views-of-trumps-conduct-democrats-are-broadly-critical/

RIP undecideds

[Matty]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

[Tintrlvr]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

All for different reasons. May constantly appears hopelessly out of touch and totally bungled a recent election that should have been a slam dunk, Macron is at war with both the left and the right in France simultaneously and Trump is an incompetent doofus. Abe's popularity is rebounding rapidly, and I would not put him in the same category, though he's mostly just had corruption scandals (of the sort the Japanese quickly forget about).

[cvparty]

?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The approval of trump is 55% of ordinary people who work honestly and respect the values ​​of the past. The media are democrats and traitors.

WTF do either of these sentences even mean?

[GeorgiaModerate]

WTF do either of these sentences even mean?

I'm convinced that this account is somebody's idea of a joke, i.e. an attempt to imitate/parody the worst examples of right-wing platitudes.  Reading it in that light is actually rather amusing.

[Daniel909012]

It has been shown that surveys are mostly drawn up in large cities and Democrat bastions, they are not reliable. Honest and hardworking people know the truth.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It has been shown that surveys are mostly drawn up in large cities and Democrat bastions, they are not reliable. Honest and hardworking people know the truth.

You mean people who aren't you? You're neither honest (trolling instead of sharing real political opinions) nor hardworking (not very good at trolling).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

No broad-based economic recovery from the great recession.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Stop. Feeding. The. Troll.

[pbrower2a]

Pew: 36-63

http://www.people-press.org/2017/08/29/republicans-divided-in-views-of-trumps-conduct-democrats-are-broadly-critical/

Democrats distrust him on issues and disparage him on conduct. Republicans think that he is fine on issues but disparage him on conduct.

Democrats are heavily convinced of his collusion with Russian intelligence services; Republicans are not convinced.

Republicans are not confident with the President on nuclear weapons or immigration, splitting about 50-50 on both issues. Trump is seen by about 56% of Republicans as competent to make trade deals. Democrats have little confidence in him on those issues.

Here are some 'person in the street' responses:



Also:



 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (August 28th)

Approve 35% (-/-)
Disapprove 60% (-/-)

The new normal, folks.

Have his approvals/disapprovals ever stayed exactly the same for four days in a row before?

No, not four exactly the same.  He did have a very stable stretch from May 14-22 where approval was 37 or 38 and disapproval was 56 or 57 on each day.

[Yank2133]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

No broad-based economic recovery from the great recession.

Not really.

[Matty]

What scandal did abe face? I wasn't aware of anything?

Also, I thought May was pretty popular before the snap election fiasco?