Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Trump and hispanics

National
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 76%

Florida
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 64%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-florida-hispanic-poll-trump-20171004-story.html

This may explain how execrably President Trump is doing in Colorado and new Mexico and why he is doing about as badly in Texas as in Iowa and Ohio. 

Is this really that bad?  The Florida number is actually higher than his 35% Hispanic vote according to exit polls in 2016.  Nationally his approval among Hispanics seems to be down less than among the electorate overall and I wouldn't assume all people that disapprove of him wont vote for him.  Some don't like him but will vote for him for ideological reasons.

At this level, a difference of 1% is statistical noise. Participation may matter more.

AP: 32/67
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-poll-just-24-percent-say-us-heading-in-right-direction/ar-AAsZSgo

Freezing.

This looks like an outlier, but we will have some corroboration if it should prove valid.

[Dr. Arch]

AP: 32/67
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-poll-just-24-percent-say-us-heading-in-right-direction/ar-AAsZSgo

Freezing.

YIKES!

More than how low that approval number is, the disapproval is what's really shocking.

[Matty]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

[Ebsy]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

Look at marty, all grown up after taking STAT 100.

[Yank2133]

That AP poll is an outlier.

Only 67% of Republicans approve of Trump.....yeah right.

[Matty]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

Look at marty, all grown up after taking STAT 100.

Come on, Ebsy. How can you not think it's an outlier?

You seriously think in our polarized climate that 33% of republicans disapprove of trump? It's about ten points off every other poll overall, and like 20 points off on the republican voter ratings

I think gallup has it exactly right

[Blackacre]

It's probably an outlier, but outliers have been right before. It's worth taking into account

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As long as the poll isn't by Breitbart, Emerson, Rasmussen, or any other lesser known or often inaccurate pollster, I'll take it. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the beginning of the rest of the pollsters showing his numbers tanking. This has been a bad week for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It could be the start of a trend, but unless and until we see some other pollsters with similar numbers, I'm inclined to think it's an outlier.

[KingSweden]

It could be the start of a trend, but unless and until we see some other pollsters with similar numbers, I'm inclined to think it's an outlier.

[pbrower2a]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of Republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

In 2016 the polls suggesting that Donald Trump was closing in on Hillary Clinton and that Democratic edges in Senate races vanishing looked like outliers. Then they proved true in the 2016 election. Just when you think that approval ratings for President Trump have recovered a little from their lowest comes a poll like this. But then comes some erratic and discreditable behavior, including the "calm before the storm" nonsense.  

Watch for more polls. They could corroborate or disavow this polling result.  

[Don Vito Corleone]

It could be the start of a trend (and I hope to god it is), but unless and until we see some other pollsters with similar numbers, I'm inclined to think it's an outlier.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (October 6th)

Approve 39% (nc)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[Daniel909012]

Gallup (October 6th)

Approve 39% (nc)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Clearly the previous survey was rubbish

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup (October 6th)

Approve 39% (nc)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Clearly the previous survey was rubbish

Your contributions to this forum are rubbish too, yet here you are.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (October 6th)

Approve 39% (nc)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Clearly the previous survey was rubbish

We'll see. While the AP poll is probably an outlier, we need to see the numbers from this week to determine that. Gallup and Rasmussen should not used to determine a trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another possibility is that AP/NOPR is just one of those pollsters that tends to the low side for Trump.  Their previous survey in the 538 list (June 8-11) had Trump at 35/64 and was among the lowest around that time, too.

[Matty]

Another possibility is that AP/NOPR is just one of those pollsters that tends to the low side for Trump.  Their previous survey in the 538 list (June 8-11) had Trump at 35/64 and was among the lowest around that time, too.

I'm guessing perhaps the respondents in the AP polls tend to be more urban and suburban, and not enough rural/exurban?

I don't think it's out of the question that trump is unpopular among many suburban and urban republicans.

[Cashew]

Gallup (October 6th)

Approve 39% (nc)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Clearly the previous survey was rubbish

But I thought any poll showing Trump underwater was fake.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another possibility is that AP/NOPR is just one of those pollsters that tends to the low side for Trump.  Their previous survey in the 538 list (June 8-11) had Trump at 35/64 and was among the lowest around that time, too.

I'm guessing perhaps the respondents in the AP polls tend to be more urban and suburban, and not enough rural/exurban?

I don't think it's out of the question that trump is unpopular among many suburban and urban republicans.

I feel a lot of these "suburban and urban republicans" are abandoning their party because of Trump. He's pushing many Republicans leftward on immigration, healthcare, and LGBT rights. See Ana Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Rick Wilson, etc.

[Inmate Trump]

Another possibility is that AP/NOPR is just one of those pollsters that tends to the low side for Trump.  Their previous survey in the 538 list (June 8-11) had Trump at 35/64 and was among the lowest around that time, too.

I'm guessing perhaps the respondents in the AP polls tend to be more urban and suburban, and not enough rural/exurban?

I don't think it's out of the question that trump is unpopular among many suburban and urban republicans.

I feel a lot of these "suburban and urban republicans" are abandoning their party because of Trump. He's pushing many Republicans leftward on immigration, healthcare, and LGBT rights. See Ana Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Rick Wilson, etc.

Also, see me. Before Trump, I voted Republican. Post Trump, I’m a Democrat committed to never voting Republican again for any race. The entire party went completely crazy in 2016 so much so that I’ll never again be able to trust any of them with my vote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah I personally went from a right leaning independent to a democrat after seeing Donald Trump and Ted Cruz being the top two contenders in the GOP primary.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (October 7th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[American2020]

Ipsos

Disapprove 58.7%
Approve 35.6%
Mixed feelings 5.6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Ipsos

Disapprove 58.7%
Approve 35.6%
Mixed feelings 5.6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

Thereby proving that really bad poll the other day wasn't an outlier.