Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[KingSweden]

Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

Not predicting that Democrats will pick up 40+ seats in 2018 /=/ Refusing to believe that Trump will damage the CA GOP even more than it already is. CA is going to get pretty ugly in 2018 and 2020, no doubt about it. I'm not sure how many seats they will actually pick up there, though.

And like PNM said, I am well aware of the trends in places like Orange County.

I wonder what the state leg swing will be in 2018 in CA

[KingSweden]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

There's some truth in what you say, but it's not the whole story.  Of course there are people who are happy to see Trump, or whoever is President, do badly.  (I'll admit to a bit of this myself at present, although perhaps it's more a sense of seeing my expectations fulfilled than partisanship.)  But let's not forget that policy and approvals go hand in hand.  If Trump were executing policies that were more popular, and if his administration wasn't so inept, his numbers would be much better.  Not great, but certainly better.  Tracking the numbers as a reflection of the President's policies and their execution is something of interest to political observers like us, regardless of which side they favor.

Unequivocally, 100% true

[KingSweden]

It's Day 144 of the Trump presidency. Here are the Gallup net approvals of U.S. presidents 144 days (or the closest approximation) after their term had started.


Truman +73 (82/9)
Johnson +63 (75/12)
Kennedy +63 (74/11)
Bush Sr. +56 (70/14)
Eisenhower +54 (69/15)
Nixon +47 (63/16)
Carter +44 (63/19)
Reagan +31 (59/28)
Obama +30 (61/31)
Bush Jr. +20 (55/35)

Ford -2 (37/39)
Clinton -12 (37/49)
Trump -24 (36/60)

And Ford's would have certainly been higher had he not pardoned Tricky Dick within a month of taking office

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac NJ: 28/66

So long Guadagno

[KingSweden]

Interestingly, Trump's unfavorable rating was also 59% on Election Day, according to the RCP average.

Favorables =/= approval

Barack Obama enjoyed much higher favorability ratings than approval ratings throughout his Presidency

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Every time there's a surprising or lopsided election result, some people will say that one of the parties is headed for a permanent majority.  I've seen this claim at least half a dozen times over the years.  It hasn't happened yet, and it's not likely to happen in the future.

And it usually only takes one election cycle to disabuse observes of such absurdities

See:

1964->1968

1972->1976

2004->2006/08

2008->2010

2012->2014/16

[KingSweden]

At this point, even I disapprove.

Appropriate deployment of Nuclear Elmo right hete

[KingSweden]

The common idea that older millennials would be open to the GOP would be true if they GOP would moderate a la Huntsman, etc. but since that is not happening they won't and will stay Dem in huge numbers (analogous to the FDR Dem coalition). I am an older millennial and voted for Dem for the first time in '16 and support Northam here in VA because of how far to the right the GOP has gone.

I would, however, support a Centrist or Moderate Party should the GOP split in half, or should those parties become a real thing here in the US but that is some time off, imo.

Yup, me too. Grew up GOP but it'll be a looooong time before I even consider going back.

[KingSweden]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

[KingSweden]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

Those are better numbers for BLM among non-college whites than I expected

That's also vastly better numbers for Confederate statues among Democrats then I would've ever dreamed. There has to be something beyond "Jim Webb Democrats" actually existing in non-negligible numbers.

I suspect there's a level of nuance a poll can't capture. Define "remove"

[KingSweden]

They were old in 2004 as well. The GOP is obviously replacing every voter they're losing with a new one.

In 2004, the main stat for gloating was Bush winning 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, and of the other 3, one of them was urban Clark County, Nevada. That kind of story relies on middle-aged parents.

What's the comp on 2016? Have to imagine "fastest-growing" has trended D

[KingSweden]

Heh those Pew responses were hilarious (and a bit depressing)

[KingSweden]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

It will be a while before people can sort out what is going on. The rebuilding process will be delayed until the water levels go down enough to allow reconstruction.

Texas seems to have responded better to Harvey than Louisiana did to Katrina. Whether credit goes to the President Trump or to Texas officials is yet to be shown. you can watch for disputes between statewide Republicans and locally-elected Democrats.

It is bad form to brag about handling a disaster well until the disaster is over.

Maybe we will see another poll by the Texas Tribune.

I'd give a lot of the credit to the state and local authorities in Texas

[KingSweden]

Something is telling me the gallup numbers were artificially low and this is just a correction.

Yeah, that and its Labor Day weekend so the numbers are probably noise.

[KingSweden]

Gallup (September 4th)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

He has peaked already.

Eh day to day approval are meaningless

[KingSweden]

Man, every day I open this this thread intrigued as to whether there is any movement up or down for DJT, and the last 2 weeks have been boring. Gallup is just so stable right now.

It's definitely calcified

[KingSweden]

Fox News, Sep 24-26, 1017 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2) (New low in this poll)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president? (change from Dec.)

Yes 37 (-7)
No 59 (+7)

Remarkable that "strong" got worse while overall ticked up.

[KingSweden]

I wonder if his ratings will take a hit as a result of his incompetence regarding the Hurricane Maria aftermath in Puerto Rico.

One can only hope. His handling of Maria has been an utter travesty and disgrace.

[KingSweden]

It says a lot about Trump loyalists that they will only start to question Trump if he goes soft on immigration, the travel ban, or the Wall...especially considering everything else he has said or done that most normal people would regard as far more damning.   

Those libtard snowflakes won't trigger themselves!

[KingSweden]

It could be the start of a trend, but unless and until we see some other pollsters with similar numbers, I'm inclined to think it's an outlier.