Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Matty]

Trump appears to be heading back to the pre-comey firing dumpster fire levels he was at before

[Matty]

Arch, if you don't mind me asking, what city in WI do you live in?

[Matty]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

The latest GDP now estimate from the federal reserve has the economy growing 4% in the second quarter of 2017. That is nowhere near recession territory. Furthermore, we are officially at full employment. At full employment, there will be less employment growth simply because there is very little slack.

It's why George W Bush's 2003-2007 economy saw fairly pedestrian job numbers. It wasn't that the economy was poor in that time (it wasn't), it was that for that time period, unemployment was below 4.5%.

[Matty]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

[Matty]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

[Matty]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

[Matty]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

[Matty]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

Lol, cry me a river.

Your president is deeply unpopular and pushes for terrible legislation. So save me the bothsides, moral preening bull****.

You misread my post. Trump in many ways deserves low approvals right now. Slow, half-assed legislation and constant investigation intrigue is deserving of scorn. BUT, that doesn't mean politicians in congress don't have a duty to craft policy they were elected to put forward. Sometimes we forget that it is the legislation branch that is supposed to form legislation and vote on it, while the executive branch can veto and execute.

[Matty]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

Lol, cry me a river.

Your president is deeply unpopular and pushes for terrible legislation. So save me the bothsides, moral preening bull****.

You misread my post. Trump in many ways deserves low approvals right now. Slow, half-assed legislation and constant investigation intrigue is deserving of scorn. BUT, that doesn't mean politicians in congress don't have a duty to craft policy they were elected to put forward. Sometimes we forget that it is the legislation branch that is supposed to form legislation and vote on it, while the executive branch can veto and execute.

Well, this isn't a "bothsides" problem, but a GOP one.

Democrats have been willing to work on things like infrastructure and the ACA for years now, it is the GOP who shuts down any attempts to do so.

You want a functionally legislative branch, then you have to get rid of the GOP.

We'll see. Trump admin is currently pitching infrastructure. If a bill comes up in congress, you have a duty to vote for it if you support better infrastructure. Period.

[Matty]

Also, didn't marty literally vote for a guy who punched a reporter in the face?

I don't live in montana.

[Matty]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

We have examples of presidents down in the dumps coming back. In 1982, nobody thought reagan would be re-elected, and even Obama in 2011 was looking vulnerable.

Trump, of course, has unique issues. But there is a lot going on in this world. If something happens in korea, it could be a big factor.

[Matty]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

[Matty]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

Rassy is and always will be a joke polling company. No polling is better than Rassy.

While I agree, they did nail the 2016 election with their clintn +2 final poll.

Then again, approval polls =! election polls.

[Matty]

Is there any actual point in tracking these polls daily?

[Matty]

No, no, no, I think these polls are important, but what I mean is this:

Nothing significant has happened in the past few days or so, so why would the polls shift?

[Matty]

I wonder if trump will get any sort of "bump" from handel winning, as it may cause suburban bimbo republican women soccer moms to jump back on bandwagon.

[Matty]

barry also rubbed it in our faces

[Matty]

Gallup (June 22nd)

Approve 42% (+3)
Disapprove 54% (-2)

-

This seems like one of his quickest comebacks in approvals so far.

Anything in the news to explain the lurch to the right?

The fact that there has been no nuclear elmo news for the past few days probably helps.

Remember: Americans have the memory of goldfish .

[Matty]

ARG NH poll: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

Approve 25%
Disapprove 60%

For registered voters, it's 27/60.  Party breakdown:

R 59/27
D 10/83
Undeclared 13/70

Must be those angry New Hampshire women.

NH and its wild swings.

Isn't this the state that went from 70% bush to 40 bush?

[Matty]

PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

Ok, is something wrong with PPP's approval/disapproval model? They consistently find trump more popular than senators.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

I wonder if Trump surrounding himself with "yes men" Generals will add some stability with his administration moving forward? Hopefully for him it'll keep the petty infighting to a minimum (Trump's outbursts notwithstanding).

Only time will tell.

I hope so.

The bar is so low at this point that it could actually work in trump's favor. Everybody expects a sh**tty product, so when the product is average, it is like the heavens have opened up.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

Graham bashed a few aspects of it, but a version of it could certainly get through. Increase the amount admitted, get rid of english requirement, and it could maybe get through.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

Graham bashed a few aspects of it, but a version of it could certainly get through. Increase the amount admitted, get rid of english requirement, and it could maybe get through.

Really doubt Rubio or the business wing will get behind this

rubio is a sellout. If he knew it would pass, he would vote for it. Rubio is in no way some moderate hero on immigration issues.

[Matty]

If we go to war with the koreans, could we see it in the 20s? Historically, when we enter into quagmires, approval ratings fall.