Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[JA]

Also, deporting illegal immigrants and banning Muslims are more important to Trump supporters than cutting taxes.

Color me surprised...

[JA]

So, Rassy is yet trolling again? 45% seems definitely too high. But if true, would be shocking.

Why? Gallup already has him back up to 42%. 46% of Americans who voted in 2016 cast their ballot for Trump. It doesn't particularly surprise me that he would retain, despite his abysmal Presidency, the support of the same people who didn't care about his countless other controversies and scandals during the campaign. As far as they are concerned, most of this negative press coverage is just "fake news."

[JA]

Good on Trump. He's doing better to this point than one of the greatest presidents that ever lived. Impressive and congratulations, gotta give him this one.

You are such a strange character, Beet.

[JA]

Good on Trump. He's doing better to this point than one of the greatest presidents that ever lived. Impressive and congratulations, gotta give him this one.

You are such a strange character, Beet.

Were you here for his Republican phase?

I'm not sure, but it definitely sounds like something he'd do. Was it just after the election and he went all pro-Trump or something?

[JA]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

At this point, I couldn't even imagine Trump winning Michigan against Clinton, honestly. That state is too far gone; he'd need to face an even worse Democrat or perform some economic miracle over the next 3 years.

[JA]

Holy crap did Trump really just get up and brag about Gary Cohen by saying "I don't want poor people running the economy"

If so, then I hope Democrats slip it into their ads in 2018 and 2020.

[JA]

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Now I really am thinking his new baseline is upper-30s. If it wasn't, the past week probably should have seen him rebound somewhat, and instead he had a very brief tick up then straight back down, even without an avalanche of damning coverage.

Whereas before, random noise tended to have him oscillate around 40 - 41%, now he just seems to bounce around the mid-upper 30s. I suppose it was only a matter of time before he lost some support permanently.

The million dollar question is where has he lost that new permanent support? Is it among Whites with a college degree? Minorities? Whites without a college degree?

[JA]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

This isn't even that bad for him, considering that it's Wisconsin. Also interesting:

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A Republican polling better in these areas than the Milwaukee suburbs is very unusual.

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It seems to indicate that Trump's base of support remains strong in rural areas and among Whites without a college degree, but is significantly lower than a Republican should be among suburban voters and Whites with a college degree.

[JA]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

From that poll:

fav/unfav %:
Melania Trump 51/28% for +23%
Mueller 30/19% for +11%
Obamacare 52/46% for +6%
Pence 47/42% for +5%
Comey 38/39% for -1%
Donald Trump 47/51% for -4%
Ryan 37/45% for -8%
Schumer 26/35% for -9%
McConnell 25/41% for -16%
Hillary Clinton 40/57% for -17%
Pelosi 33/50% for -17%

There's the GOP strategy for 2018.

Unfortunately, that's true. All they have to do is role out the "s/he'll be a tool to advance the Pelosi agenda" and any Democrat in a swing or lean-R district will be negatively affected. The best thing Democrats could possibly do is change up their leadership, which has presided over the collapse of the Democratic Party to 1920s levels.

[JA]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Seems his Twitter feuds have had no net negative impact and, if anything, have improved his numbers.

[JA]

If Trump's current disapproval ratings in each of the states listed are any indication of his 2020 performance, he'll be absolutely destroyed in the Northeast. The West isn't looking too good for him either. I'm curious how he'll perform in Utah; no doubt he'll win it, but by how much? And the fact that Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin have an effectively equal disapproval of Trump is very interesting.

[JA]

Gallup (July 3rd)

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

I wonder if he could go down under 35%.

Oh, he will. I'm just curious what causes it.

[JA]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

In approval, sure, although Arkansas is exactly the kind of state that would have a negative approval rating for Trump in 2020 but still vote 60% for him because of muh blacks and gays and gungrabbers.

Arkansas isn't an exceptionally racist state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/04/28/the-most-racist-places-in-america-according-to-google/
http://users.humboldt.edu/mstephens/hate/hate_map.html#

But I'm very glad to see Trump's numbers so poorly there. Hopefully Democrats will be able to make significant inroads into the state in 2018 or 2020.

[JA]

Since the Washington Post already analyzed Trump's positive or negative swing from his election results in each state to his current approval ratings, I figured I'd go a step further and see what Trump's trend is. Of course, the trend is comparing the state's swing to the national swing and seeing whether it is higher or lower. So, that'd give us a better idea of how each state is responding to the Trump Presidency.

Vote | Approve | Swing | Trend | State

46% | 40% | -06% | +00% | United States
62% | 55% | -07% | -01%  | Alabama
51% | 51% | +00%| +06% | Alaska
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Arizona
61% | 53% | -08% | -02%  | Arkansas
31% | 30% | -01% | +05% | California
43% | 38% | -05% | +01% | Colorado
41% | 34% | -07% | -01%  | Connecticut
42% | 38% | -04% | +02% | Delaware
49% | 42% | -07% | -01%  | Florida
50% | 43% | -07% | -01%  | Georgia
30% | 35% | +05%| +11% | Hawaii
59% | 53% | -06% | +00% | Idaho
38% | 36% | -02% | +04% | Illinois
56% | 47% | -09% | -03%  | Indiana
51% | 45% | -06% | +00% | Iowa
56% | 53% | -03% | +03% | Kansas
63% | 53% | -10% | -04%  | Kentucky
58% | 51% | -07% | -01%  | Louisiana
45% | 42% | -03% | +03% | Maine
34% | 30% | -04% | +02% | Maryland
33% | 29% | -04% | +02% | Massachusetts
47% | 42% | -05% | +01% | Michigan
45% | 39% | -06% | +00% | Minnesota
58% | 48% | -10% | -04%  | Mississippi
56% | 49% | -07% | -01%  | Missouri
56% | 56% | +00%| +06% | Montana
59% | 52% | -07% | -01%  | Nebraska
46% | 44% | -02% | +04% | Nevada
46% | 45% | -01% | +05% | New Hampshire
41% | 36% | -05% | +01% | New Jersey
40% | 37% | -03% | +03% | New Mexico
37% | 31% | -06% | +00% | New York
50% | 42% | -08% | -02%  | North Carolina
63% | 59% | -04% | +02% | North Dakota
51% | 47% | -04% | +02% | Ohio
65% | 54% | -11% | -05%  | Oklahoma
39% | 38% | -01% | +05% | Oregon
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Pennsylvania
39% | 37% | -02% | +04% | Rhode Island
55% | 50% | -05% | +01% | South Carolina
62% | 57% | -05% | +01% | South Dakota
61% | 52% | -09% | -03%  | Tennessee
52% | 42% | -10% | -04%  | Texas
45% | 50% | +05%| +11% | Utah
30% | 26% | -04% | +02% | Vermont
44% | 39% | -05% | +01% | Virginia
37% | 36% | -01% | +05% | Washington
68% | 60% | -08% | -02%  | West Virginia
47% | 43% | -04% | +02% | Wisconsin
68% | 56% | -12% | -06%  | Wyoming

Top 10 states trending away from Trump

-06% | Wyoming
-05% | Oklahoma
-04% | Kentucky
-04% | Mississippi
-04% | Texas
-03% | Indiana
-03% | Tennessee
-02% | Arkansas
-02% | North Carolina
-02% | West Virginia

Top 10 states trending towards Trump

+11% | Hawaii
+11% | Utah
+06% | Alaska
+06% | Montana
+05% | California
+05% | New Hampshire
+05% | Oregon
+05% | Washington
+04% | Illinois
+04% | Nevada
+04% | Rhode Island*

*Three-way tie for 9th place

[JA]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

[JA]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

NYC and LA probably produce more American culture and innovation than the rest of the US. Where do nearly all music, art, movies, literature, banking, technological breakthroughs, etc come from but the big cities?

I'd say were far more culturally representative than vast swaths of nothing that we subsidize

[JA]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

The big cities of America like Los Angeles are just as every bit of American as the small, rural communities like Elliott County.

Every American is a "real" American, just as every part of America is "real" America. Enough of these dumbass Republicans trying to pretend they're somehow more American than others. I know it's hard for them to accept that not everyone is White, straight, cisgender, and Christian like in their idealized suburbs and small towns, but facts are facts. They may not like urban and coastal America, but we don't like them either. But we do have to tolerate each other. And funny thing is, you never hear us claiming they're not "real" America. They're the ones who're culturally and demographically out of touch with present-day America.

[JA]

TD,

Don't forget that when he refers to "the majority," he means the majority of White, heterosexual, Christians who don't live on the coasts or in big cities. According to him, that's America. Everything and everyone else is foreign and not to be taken into consideration.

[JA]

TD,

Don't forget that when he refers to "the majority," he means the majority of White, heterosexual, Christians who don't live on the coasts or in big cities. According to him, that's America. Everything and everyone else is foreign and not to be taken into consideration.

Stop.

Why? I have no reason to stop bashing you. You make openly racist and stupid comments endlessly, and dismiss parts of the country that disagree with you as "not real America." That's absolute ignorance. And let me inform you of something...

Trump won only 45.9% of the popular vote. That means 54.1% of Americans did not vote for Trump. In fact, only 54.7% of eligible voters voted in 2016; so that means of all eligible voters, Trump only won 25.1%. So, 74.9% of eligible voters did not vote for Trump. Congressional Republicans won only 49.1% of votes cast. Turnout was 54.7%. So, Congressional Republicans only won 26.9% of eligible voters. 73.1% of eligible voters did not vote for Congressional Republicans. According to Gallup's poll of the states, 54% of Americans disapprove of Trump and only 40% approve of him. Approval for Congressional Republicans is even lower. I'm not talking about Democrats here, I'm only talking about Republicans.

So, you want to keep talking about how Americans love the Republicans and how your side is more representative of America? How about the fact that Republicans are overwhelmingly disproportionately men and White Americans compared to the country? Nah, none of that makes any difference to you. Because to you only White, heterosexual, Christian Americans are "real" Americans.

[JA]

Gallup (July 31st)

Approve 37% (-/-)
Disapprove 59% (-/-)

Let's get that disapprove over 60% and keep it there.

[JA]

Interestingly, Trump's unfavorable rating was also 59% on Election Day, according to the RCP average.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

I mean, this is an obvious troll, but wouldn't it be a pretty bad thing for them to be a permanent minority if the overwhelming majority of Americans wanted them to control the House?

Only if you believe in democracy.

[JA]

For the first time, Trump conclusively failed to deliver on a promise that was important to a large chunk of his base. Trump can lie all he wants about economic growth, other countries fearing the U.S., etc. but there's no sugar-coating this one.

Unless Trump delivers on some other major Republican priority, he's going to permanently disappoint a part of his base that has backed him up until now.

The interesting question is which part of his base has he particularly upset by failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Arguably, it's the more fiscally conservative wing of the party, with which he likely had the shakiest support in the first place. If he falters on tax reform as well, while succeeding, even if symbolically, with immigration restrictions, abolishing affirmative action, and so on, then his more socially conservative base will likely hold steady while his support among fiscal conservatives further collapses.

[JA]

That's actually a great point. Ford almost winning in 1876 is what gave me pause, but then again, Ford was a lot more likeable and popular on a personal level than Pence ever is/was.

Yeah, that was wild how Rutherford B. Hayes won against Samuel J. Ford.

[JA]

So, basically, he's weak on every issue and even many of those who approve of him don't trust his White House