Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Technocracy Timmy]

White Millennials (18-34) Disapprove of Trump

34% Approve
47% Disapprove

Source

-13 with white millennials? lol that's bad.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'm predicting that we'll never see Trump's approval rating go below 35% regardless of what happens....ever.

I'm rather surprised it has stuck at 38% for this long, despite the scandals that have been blowing up. It's not like it hasn't dipped to 35% - 36% before, even if only for a couple days.

It might just be the case that only a recession or completely bungling a massive national disaster can push it lower (for a sustained period of time). Pretty sad, if true.

Exactly.

For all of our faults and problems, the country is in an economic recovery and there's no pressing foreign policy affair going on (North Korea flare ups is the closest). Once the economy goes into recession and/or there's a foreign policy blunder...uh oh for Trump.

[Technocracy Timmy]

If I'm reading the 538 averages correctly, Trump has been on the decline since roughly May 8.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

His approval-disapproval is underwater in Mississippi??!?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

Ouch.

[Technocracy Timmy]

And really, from a Democratic electoral perspective, it's probably best that there isn't a recession for a while anyway (if there has to be one), since if it happened to soon into his presidency, Trump could credibly blame it on Obama. But if it happens in 2018 or later, who the hell is going to believe him?

Is there any precedent for this? Specifically a President coming into power during a recovery/expansion left by their predecessor then successfully putting the blame of a recession early in their first term on their predecessor?

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/869249365273178112

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Remember DAY 130!

President Trump also has a lower approval rating at this point in his Preisdency than Barack Obama, George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, John F. Kennedy, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Harry Truman.

But yes, congratulations on Trump being slightly more popular at this point than Clinton (and possibly Ford) were at this point in their Presidencies. Such a great accomplishment for the man who lost the popular vote to the second most disliked Presidential candidate in modern American history.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

[Technocracy Timmy]

According to 538, President Trump seems to have currently stabilized around 39% these past two weeks.

[Technocracy Timmy]

All time low approval/high disapproval on RCP - 38.8/55.8

All time low on 538 as well at 38-56% approval.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

From that poll:

fav/unfav %:
Melania Trump 51/28% for +23%
Mueller 30/19% for +11%
Obamacare 52/46% for +6%
Pence 47/42% for +5%
Comey 38/39% for -1%
Donald Trump 47/51% for -4%
Ryan 37/45% for -8%
Schumer 26/35% for -9%
McConnell 25/41% for -16%
Hillary Clinton 40/57% for -17%
Pelosi 33/50% for -17%

There's the GOP strategy for 2018.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Just because that worked in one SE doesn't mean it will work in a midterm over a year from now

We'll see. Part of the DCCC strategy is to target Romney-Clinton districts and Romney-Clinton voters as a whole for down-ballot votes. I think the "Pelosi's agenda" strategy will drive a huge wedge with these voters and will ultimately keep them voting GOP down-ballot.

I never thought they were ripe for the taking by Democrats anyhow.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Looking at his 538 average, Trump has stabilized at 39% for the last 5 and a half weeks.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Looking at his 538 average, Trump has stabilized at 39% for the last 5 and a half weeks.

^ I think this is important to remember in the context of this thread. The economy plus polarization appears to have stabilized Trump at this level thus far in spite of the dips he's gotten from Comey/Russia/DumbWatergate. The economy and the continued strategy of hyperpolarisation are gonna be key to 2018 and 2020.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Mostly the economy. One shouldn't expect a president's base to desert him so quick in his presidency anyway, so I think pointing to "polarization" as a strategy is kinda pointless.

It isn't pointless at all. See Handel's strategy in GA-06.

[Technocracy Timmy]

89% of republicans are that dense. Amazing.

Not at all surprising if you talk to Republican voters in your daily life

[Technocracy Timmy]

8 full weeks now he's been at 39% according to the 538 average.

[Technocracy Timmy]

If Sanders or a Sanders-esque candidate once again loses to an “establishment” candidate in the 2020 primaries, then I could easily see a repeat of this sort of thing.

I guess the question becomes who is the establishment "Third Way" so to speak neoliberal candidate in 2020? Even a moderate like Cuomo has a pretty progressive track record. Kamala Harris and Warren don't really fit this mold listening to their speeches. Joe Biden in his recent Harvard commencement speech almost sounded Sanders-esque at critical times during his speech. Klobuchar jut doesn't have the charisma to pose a serious challenge IMO.

The only sort of moderate guy/gal who talks about working with Republicans and finding common ground with the other side is Cory Booker. And that guy has a serious problem of sounding like he's "Telling a bed time story to a 5 year old" every time he's talking so I have serious doubts he'll win the nomination.