Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Wiz in Wis]

Morning Consult/Politico

https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/19/trumps-approval-sinks-amid-avalanche-bad-headlines/

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -12
Northeast: -16
South: -5
West: -18

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -3
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -21

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -17
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -8

14% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

If approval ratings are good proxies for voting, then I can imagine the following states and districts flipping:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

====TRUMP LOSES====

ME-02
North  Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Iowa

===2012=style Obama victory  ===

Arizona
Georgia
NE-02

Beyond this, things get weird. Texas?

Arizona, Georgia, and NE-02 were all closer than Ohio and Iowa FWIW.

[Wiz in Wis]

Still dropping like a rock in Reuters/Ipsos though

37% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

For the record, this is 538's most heavily weighted poll, as it has a very high n and has an A+ pollster rating.

[Wiz in Wis]

Memo to GOP - Your base hates your health care bill.

[Wiz in Wis]

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

[Wiz in Wis]

California must switch to partisan gerrymandering. So should New York.

Probably impossible in both (CA - Commission created by initiative / NY - Republican run Senate)

The initiative in CA should be repealed.
In NY, the mainstream Democrats should make a deal with the IDC.

There's no reason to repeal the CA initiative. The Dems are already over-represented in the House compared to vote share.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump at 36/59 in Gallup

But... Infrastructure Week!?

[Wiz in Wis]

He has finally reached 60% disapproval on Gallup.

Congrats, Mr. President!

[Wiz in Wis]

I wonder if trump will get any sort of "bump" from handel winning, as it may cause suburban bimbo republican women soccer moms to jump back on bandwagon.

You're overthinking

[Wiz in Wis]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

This isn't even that bad for him, considering that it's Wisconsin.

the sample was 45/45/10 R/D/I in terms of Party ID.

[Wiz in Wis]

The number I'm finding most surprising is Utah. A positive approval rating there really means the Mormons have given up the ghost.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+1)

[Wiz in Wis]

Rasmussen continues to show Trump reaching new lows:

Approve: 38
Disapprove: 62

Strongly Approve: 25
Strongly Disapprove: 50

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Hard not to think at least *some* of this is the BCRA/ACA disaster in the Senate. A few GOPers losing their faith in "the Art of the Deal"

[Wiz in Wis]

Yougov (change from last week):

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 54% (+3)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tn9k94h20u/econTabReport.pdf

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

538's "adjusted Rasmussen numbers" have him at 33/67. Possible, but not especially likely - not in the next week or so.

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

[Wiz in Wis]

Today's FiveThirtyEight composite score:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 57.5%

Both are records

[Wiz in Wis]

FiveThirtyEight Polling Average (8/8/17)

Approve: 36.4%
Disapprove: 57.9%

The approval gap can now legally drink.

[Wiz in Wis]

PPP - National:

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

For comparison, in July PPP had 41/55.  Some other tidbits from the new poll:

Generic Congressional ballot is 49 D, 35 R.  Congress approval is 9/73, McConnell is 9/61, Ryan is 16/62.

48/41 in favor of impeachment.  46/37 think the Russia story is not "fake news".  Also:

If evidence comes out that proves conclusively that members of Donald Trump’s campaign
team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President, do you
think Trump should continue to serve as President, or do you think he should resign?

Continue: 34
Resign: 54

If Generic Ballot were to hold at that level, it would be a bloodbath in the House. If Trump keeps attacking his own party (see: McConnell, Graham, Flake, Heller, Murkowski, Collins, McCain), I can see a good chunk of his core supporters forcing a ton of bad-news primaries and then staying home in the general when their candidates (Kelli Ward, for example) don't win the primary election.