Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth national poll (change from March):

Approve 39% (-4)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Wow, that's a stunning change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the details on that Monmouth poll:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico

https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/19/trumps-approval-sinks-amid-avalanche-bad-headlines/

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters/Ipsos (5-day rolling):

Approve: 38.0% (-0.7)
Disapprove: 56.2% (+0.7)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170120-20170519/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[GeorgiaModerate]

33%???

Wow.

It's hard to imagine how a president could get reflected with that kind of rating. Was Dewey just a really terrible candidate?

Yes, he was.  A brief summary from http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26661213/ns/politics-decision_08/t/how-truman-defied-odds:

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That wasn't the only reason, of course.  Another possible factor is that the economy had begun to recover in 1948 from a recession in 1946-47, and the electorate may have (consciously or unconsciously) given Truman some credit for that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 20-23 compared to May 13-16
All Adults:
39 (-/-)
51 (-/-)
RV:
40 (+1)
53 (-1)


Morning Consult, May 18-22 compared to May 16-18
RV:
46 (+5)
50 (-2)


Ipsos, May 18-22 compared to May 13-17
All Adults:
37 (-2)
57 (+1)
LV:
36 (-5)
58 (+3)

Ipsos must have traded some of their pro-Trump respondents to Morning Consult.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not likely that Trump will see the improvement in his numbers that Bill Clinton did.  Clinton had his faults, but he was personable, intelligent, and adaptable.  His Presidency started out poorly, and he learned from that and changed directions; things got better for him after that (there were other factors, of course).  Trump shows no indications of being similarly adaptable.

Also, a lot of people who initially disapproved of Clinton were persuadable.  A large portion of the anti-Trump group hates Trump with a passion, and will never be persuaded.  Even if he had Clinton's ability in this area, Trump faces a much firmer opposition.

[GeorgiaModerate]

1) Clinton only won the election with about 43% of the vote. One of the lowest pluralities along with Nixon in 68 of any winner in the previous century. A telling comparison IMHO.

Nixon's and Clinton's first elections both had very strong third-party candidates.  Of course the winning vote share was lower than a typical election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

It looks like a misprint. Probably 32% approval, which is still execrable. I'll accept 32%. 61% disapproval?  That suggests a collapse of Trump support.

I don't think it's a misprint.  The story says "the percentage of Michiganders giving Trump positive job ratings fell from 18% to 12%."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

The map has an F on Arizona too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly (as opposed to daily) ending 6/4, change from previous week:

Approve: 38 (-3)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Per https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/871806315546497025, this is a return to previous levels after an uptick last week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win back the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

Agree.  At a minimum, if the Democrats win the House then Trump's tax returns will probably be subpoeaned by the new Oversight chairman before the sun sets on Jan. 3, 2019 (assuming they haven't come out before then).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warren is liberal, but she doesn't have the baggage that Clinton did.  If present trends continue, I think she'd beat Trump.  Although I don't think Trump is likely to run for re-election, if he's even still in office in 2020.  He's an old man and clearly doesn't enjoy the job.  If the Democrats win the House in 2018, it's going to become even less enjoyable for him.

Question: assuming Trump does run again, who is the best Democratic candidate to oppose him?  This could be someone not necessarily on the radar at this point.  In 2013 nobody expected Trump to be the next President; similarly for Bill Clinton in 1989, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's average (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) is at its lowest point yet, 38.6/55.7 for a net -17.1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (change from May 24):

Approve 34 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2462

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (change from May 24):

Approve 34 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2462

The whole release is worth reading.  It's full of terrible numbers for Trump on a variety of issues.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Strongly approve/disapprove is 25/51.  Is this the first poll in which he's had over 50% strong disapproval?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

There's some truth in what you say, but it's not the whole story.  Of course there are people who are happy to see Trump, or whoever is President, do badly.  (I'll admit to a bit of this myself at present, although perhaps it's more a sense of seeing my expectations fulfilled than partisanship.)  But let's not forget that policy and approvals go hand in hand.  If Trump were executing policies that were more popular, and if his administration wasn't so inept, his numbers would be much better.  Not great, but certainly better.  Tracking the numbers as a reflection of the President's policies and their execution is something of interest to political observers like us, regardless of which side they favor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is currently at his worst net approvals in all three major polling aggregators.

Three?  I know of RCP and 538, but what's the third one?

Huffington Post: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

We have examples of presidents down in the dumps coming back. In 1982, nobody thought reagan would be re-elected, and even Obama in 2011 was looking vulnerable.

Trump, of course, has unique issues. But there is a lot going on in this world. If something happens in korea, it could be a big factor.

This is true, and can work the other way as well.  In early 1991, after the conclusion of Desert Storm, GHW Bush's approval was close to 90%.  If anyone had suggested that he'd lose handily the following autumn, they'd have been laughed out of town.

[GeorgiaModerate]

HuffPo/YouGov, June 8-9: http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPComeyTestimony20170608.pdf

Favorable: 37% (20 Very, 17 Somewhat)
Unfavorable: 52% (43 Very, 9 Somewhat)

Top issue: health care (45%)

Several questions about Russia and Comey, none of the numbers are good for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Vindication REVOKED

Devindication (tm).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Worst Gallup disapproval ever, second-worst Gallup approval ever.

Tied with March 28 (35/59) as the worst all-time Gallup net approval.

No one can deny that Trump has been a record-setting President.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly: http://www.gallup.com/poll/212120/trump-approval-edges-down-new-weekly-low.aspx

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Both are new extremes for Trump so far.

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