Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

....To be filled in with some backtracking. Go ahead and Please do not comment on this map; until I say that I am complete in filling it in. I am dropping the Ohio approval poll as it is a composite.

Backtracking:

Utah 45-55 (Dan Jones)
Virginia  36-60 Washington Post, George Mason University, third-degree burn
Oklahoma 57-36 Sooner Poll (Oklahoma could be Trump's best state
Pennsylvania, 36-62 Franklin & Marshall College -- huge drop from 2016
New Hampshire, 43-47 U-New Hampshire
Wisconsin 39-59 St. Norbert's College
Colorado, 47-49, Magellan (usual votes in a primary in a midterm
Minnesota, 40-51 Star-Tribune
Ohio, favorability poll by Gravis (not using favorability polls in swing states)
North Carolina, 42-51, Elon
Washington, 40-56. Elway
Texas 42-55, Texas Lyceum (not that I really trust any poll of Texas)
Arkansas 53-39. Hendrix College, Talk Business
Montana 50-42, Gravis
New Jersey 28-61 Fairleigh-Dickinson University
New York 29-67. Quinnnipiac  
California, 31-61. PPIC
West Virginia, 58-37 Orion Stategies
Florida, 44-51 University of North Florida
Maryland, 29- 64 Baltimore Sun
Tennessee 51-32 Middle Tennessee State University
South Carolina, 44-47, Winthrop University
Iowa. Selzer 42-47
Michigan. EPIC/MRI 40-54
Arizona 39-49 Data Orbital (favorability) --possibly obsolete
Massachusetts, a composite on several issues, all but one of which has favorable expectations of less than 32%, WBUR  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico

https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/19/trumps-approval-sinks-amid-avalanche-bad-headlines/

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -12
Northeast: -16
South: -5
West: -18

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -3
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -21

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -17
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -8

14% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

If approval ratings are good proxies for voting, then I can imagine the following states and districts flipping:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

====TRUMP LOSES====

ME-02
North  Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Iowa

===2012=style Obama victory  ===

Arizona
Georgia
NE-02

Beyond this, things get weird. Texas?

[pbrower2a]

It is far easier to lose 4% of approval from 63% than from 38%. With approval at 63% there are plenty of ways for pols to lose some approval, like proposing some critical legislation that lacks appreciably more than 50% support. There really is little critical legislation that has much more than 50% support when government has been running somewhat smoothly. If there has been a recent dictatorial government or one thoroughly incompetent or corrupt, then the recent new democratic leader can deal first with undoing the harm before proceeding to issues of more controversy.

Political change is likely in a democracy when an item on the agenda has about 53% support. The Obama administration got behind same-sex marriage when polls started showing it getting just over 50% support. But even then, it was opposed by just under 50% of the public. 

When an elected official has over 60% approval in a polity with a near 50-50 split of partisanship, political reality has yet to set in. When the elected official has about 48% support in such a society, he is still doing adequately. If he chooses his battles appropriately, then he will win re-election if he so seeks. When the elected official has 38% or so support in a place of a 50-50 split in partisanship, then reality has set in and is nearly set in concrete.

Donald Trump will not need an approval rating in the 20s to be an easy target for just about any Democratic challenger in 2020. Where he is now, he would be in position to lose like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons. He will still get the support of people who want economic inequality as severe as in the Jim Crow South or the latter years of Imperial Russia. He has support, and will keep it, from people who want a wall built along the Mexican border. He will maintain support from people who see Islam as a real menace to America. Some people think that America can be 'great again' so long as they are convinced that they will have the privilege of getting special privileges due to hardships imposed upon others.

       

[pbrower2a]

How low has a president gone and still recovered with no consequences? There was Truman, right? Even he lost Congress and only ran once.

Here's the answer according to Nate Silver:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-trumps-problems-hit-a-breaking-point/

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But with Truman the 33% probably reflected events overseas, especially the results of Commie power-grabs in central and Balkan Europe and the Far East, and the hardships of the military-to-civilian transition in the postwar economy. That low point of 33% had nothing to do with personal impropriety of any kind. People may have questioned the competence and decisiveness of Truman but never his integrity. Communist coups in Hungary and Czechoslovakia were followed by the highly-successful Berlin Airlift, and the transition from a military economy to a civilian economy brought about a level of prosperity that Americans had never experienced before.

With Trump, a combination of corruption, cronyism, incompetence, extremism, and despotic tendencies overpower the faults that Truman had. I expect Republicans to do what they can while they can to establish the pure plutocracy of their dreams and try to entrench themselves by changing the election laws to their benefit.

President Trump is going to need one thing that no President has had without the condition of a war that makes any dissent suspect -- a personality cult. What may have been appropriate when the President faced the second greatest military force of the time (the Confederacy!) or two great powers  as Evil Empires at once (Nazi Germany and Thug Japan) in wars deciding whether the United States of America could survive as a democracy clearly does not apply to Donald Trump, who is about as far from being a Lincoln or an FDR as he could be. He is a sick joke to America, as bad as the construct of "One Big-A$$ Mistake, America" by the Hard Right.

"Tacky, Ruthless (or Reckless), Unethical, Malign Poltroon" seems to fit better and has no hint of profanity.

By 2020 America will have the readiness to elect someone as similar to Barack Obama in virtues and agenda as possible for President. Caution, reverence for precedent and protocol, integrity, an insistence upon clean government, and empathy for people with disadvantages looks like a viable solution for all the problems that we now have.  

[pbrower2a]

What has he done for those low-income, low-information voters that he gulled in November?

[pbrower2a]

Yes -- 1.1.

There has been no major event to change the core reality. There has been no start of any process of impeachment. There is no medical crisis. The 2018 election is agonizingly far away.

[pbrower2a]

All of this is even before he came out with that miserable budget today.

What happens when his budget passes and people lose disability benefits like SSDI? People won't be too happy when this happens.

His budget isn't passing so it won't hurt him. It's the traditional hyper-ideological budget that gets voted down 99-1 in the Senate. They'll pass a budget with much bigger deficits to finance all the programs that protect Congress's priorities.

To be fair, I wish Trump had just gone after SS and Medicare and SNAP benefits instead of snipping at everything else but olds have a constituency, unfortunately.

SNAP has an attraction to food merchants. First, it greatly reduces shoplifting. Second, it lets food merchants make money of sales of food.

Count on this: Wal*Mart, the biggest beneficiary of revenue from SNAP. will find a way to save SNAP.

[pbrower2a]

Beautiful flawless Rasmussen

LV:
48%
52%


From 44% last week.

That's a likely voter screen for 2010 and 2014. Anyone who believes that the political climate of 2018 will be much the same as those of 2010 or 2014 is drinking something other than a diet cola (which is what I am now drinking).
 

[pbrower2a]

The "Q" again.

   May 24, 2017 - American Voters Believe Trump Is Abusing His Powers, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Job Approval Remains At Historic Low       

American voters believe 54 - 43 percent that President Donald Trump is abusing the powers of his office, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

President Trump gets a negative 37 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 36 - 58 percent approval in a May 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University. Today, voters over 65 years old, divided in earlier surveys, now disapprove 53 - 42 percent. Trump has a negative 36 - 54 percent approval among independent voters, an improvement from his negative 29 - 63 percent two weeks ago.

The president is under water among every party, gender, educational, age and racial group except Republicans, who approve 84 - 13 percent; white voters with no college degree, who approve 52 - 40 percent, and white men who are split 47 - 46 percent.

Trump fired FBI Director James Comey to disrupt the investigation into possible ties between the Russian government and the Trump campaign, 55 percent of voters believe. Another 36 percent say Trump lost confidence in Comey's ability to lead the FBI.

American voters disapprove 54 - 36 percent of the Comey firing. The firing was an abuse of power, 49 percent say, while 47 percent say it was not an abuse.

Voters do not believe 54 - 31 percent Trump's claim that Comey told him on three separate occasions that the president was not under investigation.

"President Donald Trump remains mired in dreadful mid 30s approval numbers and the red flags that are popping up tell an even darker story," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Retirement age voters are leaving in big numbers," Malloy added.

"But by far the most alarming determination is that President Trump is abusing his office."

Voters do believe 55 - 27 percent that Trump asked Comey to drop the FBI investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

The matter should be investigated by the U.S. House of Representatives, voters say 62 - 33 percent.

American voters support 66 - 30 percent the appointment of a special prosecutor to look into possible ties between Trump campaign advisors and the Russian government.

A total of 68 percent of voters say alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election is a "very important" or "somewhat important" issue.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2460

[pbrower2a]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

I wonder how Fox spun this.

Is it a fake poll?

It is within the margin of error of other pollsters.

FoX typically uses objective pollsters.

[pbrower2a]

Here is my compilation of Nate Silver's estimates of approval for President Trump.

We can assume that approval ratings reflect the perception of competence and desirability of the President's efforts. Nate Silver does not use existing polls; he has an algorithm, and it is a suitable alternative to a compilation of polls as I have, at the least for completeness.

States in maroon are reasonably assumed hopeless for any Republican nominee short of the new Ronald Reagan against a very weak Democratic opponent, and the approval rating that Nate Silver estimates for Trump in those states largely so indicates. He estimates that the President's approval ratings in such states based upon his algorithm is at or below 30%.

So let's lump the states into categories

ap rate      Dem   Trp
>= 30%     115   423
31-36%     187   359
36-41%     323   215
42%         374   164
44%         412   126
46-47%     430   208
47%         433   105
48-49%     450   188
50% or more -- Do you really need to know?

Should he win the states in other than those in maroon and medium red, then he has an electoral result similar to that of Obama in 2012. But that implies that he wins states in pink in which he has approval ratings between than 36% and 41% (which cuts off New Mexico, which went to Clinton by 8%, which is a reasonable limit for saying what is close and what isn't), and contains North Carolina (a 4% win for Trump in 2016) which asks for a 'yuge' changes in political expectations and reality. The good news for President Trump  is that he has almost three and a half years in which to make that work.  The bad news is that he has little room for pushing an unpopular agenda or for any economic meltdown or foreign disaster. As a reminder, Jimmy Carter was doing far better at a comparable time into his single term as President. 

All states in pink were close in 2016. Donald Trump will need to win at least three of those with fifteen or more electoral votes, as they include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Florida. But having approvals of 41% or less at this stage just does not look good for the prospect of a re-election of President Trump in states that were close in 2016.

Next come states in which President Trump has an estimated approval rating of 42% -- Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona and Georgia were fairly close in 2016, but they haven't gone to a Democratic nominee for President since the 1990s. Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice but swung strongly for Trump.  These states comprise 51 electoral votes, and every one of them will be a must-win state for President Trump except for Iowa (only six electoral votes). President Trump is severely underwater in these states. I color them aqua.

Texas is a category in itself, a state straddling regions and having great diversity en economic life and ethnicity. A right-wing Republican should normally be very popular in Texas, at least since 2000 -- but it looks to have reverted to being on the margin of competitiveness.  Trump won it by about the same margin by which he lost New Mexico. It is the second-largest prize in electoral votes. Should President Trump lose Texas,  he is losing a landslide in which the Democratic challenger is getting over 400 electoral votes. Trump is underwater with only 44% approval and 49% approval. Texas is in lime green.  Texas might not be decided until December of 2020.

Bad as it might be for President Trump to be underwater in Alaska (not a Democratic win since 1964), or either Mississippi or South Carolina (last won by a Democratic nominee in 1976) -- he is barely underwater in those three states with approval ratings of 46% or 47%. Medium green.

Where the President is tied at 47%  (Indiana and Missouri in pale blue
he will likely win by mid-single digits, demonstrating the weakness of his defense of his record.  States in which he has just less than 50% approval (in medium blue) he will probably win with high single digits. Those in which he has an approval rating of 50%  (in navy) or more will go for President Trump by double digits. 

Note that Nate Silver does not distinguish the districts of Maine and Nebraska.

 

[pbrower2a]

Wow, didn't he (Trump) carry upstate in 2016?

Barely, but yes.

Many of his voters of 2016 are catching on. I found that I was to the Right of the Republican nominee for President on issues of national security... something that I could have imagined for myself as late as five years or so ago in the unlikely case in which I become a Bircher.

Upstate New York is much like Wisconsin or Iowa, states that went for Obama twice and then went for the Great Demagogue. I'm guessing that undereducated white people are beginning to recognize that President Trump intends only to enrich those already rich and make life harder for the working class.

As I have suggested before, one of the reasons that Democrats have done so well in high-cost areas is that people in urban areas find the landlord more of a taker than the tax man. That describes New York, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, and Los Angeles very well. In some rural areas, the landlord may be a near-pauper or housing might be so cheap that one can buy it on SSI or one of the 'great jobs' at a box store.

This week's Q poll suggests that elderly voters (now about half of them were born in the 1940s and early 1950s as people born in the 1930s are dropping off like flies) are beginning to reject President Trump. Maybe the talk of privatizing Medicare and Social Security scares the Hell out of them. Sure, that is the Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress more than the President.   

Losing areas by big margins that one barely won or barely lost in the previous election? That's what happened to Hoover and Carter. Approval polls are not votes, but they are excellent portents. The trick is in interpreting those polls.  If President Trump were at all effective, then we would be seeing approval ratings in the high 40s, at the least, in such states as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His approvals in such states are around 40%. Almost any elected official is going to see polling below his percentage in the previous election as he makes decisions as a legislator or administrator that might prove controversial. But there is as usual limit to how far that goes. Being on the right side on most issues is a good way to keep one's approval rating in the high 40s. To disappoint voters as badly as President Trump has is to set oneself up for defeat at the next election.

We Americans may be the people most amenable to free-market solutions, but even we have limits on how much we tolerate abuse in the name of Mammon.
   

[pbrower2a]

First statewide poll in this new polling forum. I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

 

Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

First statewide poll in this new polling forum. I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

 

Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

Democrats will have plenty of corruption and other malfeasance to tag upon President Trump in 2020. Negative ads work.   

[pbrower2a]

A reasonably-good opponent could take down Trump as Reagan took down Carter or FDR took down Hoover. But even that is overkill.

I look at the approval numbers; they are wholly inadequate for winning re-election even with a spirited and competent campaign.  The connection to Russia might be old stuff by 2020 and ineffective. But there will be more. The Trump administration plans to make big tax cuts for the super-rich; as the financial lords start complaining about deficits and drive interest rates into the stratosphere, President Trump will push for high taxes that hurt everyone but the super-rich. That will shrink the economy. If he does this while wages plummet and welfare vanishes, the economy will go into a tailspin.

An economic meltdown that begins like those starting in 1929 or 2007 will kill his chances for re-election, whether such has gone on for nearly three years (Hoover), a little over a year (the economic meltdown made the election of McCain impossible), or two (something intermediate in political effect).

Donald Trump would be the worst President possible during an economic tailspin because he is even more reactionary than Hoover. He would tell people to suffer for economic elites who have the cure -- a return to the cruelty and inequity of the Gilded Age.

Even the National Enquirer has turned on the President that it hyped.   

[pbrower2a]

We have an aging recovery, one that has lost the political leadership that fostered it. Maybe political gridlock will continue, in which case little really changes. But should wee get the radical change that the Trump Administration, the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks! and the Birch Society want, then we can expect consumer spending to crater long before any alleged benefits of new job-creating investment  can even partially offset a much poorer America. Corporate America does not want to expand employment; the only investment that can create jobs will be mom-and-pop startups.  Basically, salaried and hourly workers exchange (if not as voluntarily as it seems) steady pay for the unpredictable income of small-business owners.

The only employment that I can see rising under Trump will be in domestic service. Most manufacturing markets are saturated. Consumer spending aside from food and energy is largely replacement, whether of worn-out, broken, or obsolete stuff. 

[pbrower2a]

Highly controversial Trump is doing pretty well getting about 40% Approval among All Adults in the middle of Russia-scandal.

Pretty well? That's horrible. It means that 40% of the American people approve of some behavior that no prior President would have ever dreamed of.

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If there is something there, then there will be a money trail. The FBI hires large numbers of accountants capable of piecing together the movement of money and attempts to conceal transactions. It's often the accountants who discover how money moved that has made arrests, subsequent prosecutions, and subsequent convictions of gangsters, drug traffickers, and terrorists possible. You can count on this: any investigation of high-level wrong-doing is highly secretive. Good criminal investigations leak out only such information as might cause a suspect to do something that might self-incriminate.
   

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Mainstream media knows the standard operating procedure of the FBI. The media keep their presses quiet when there are no official sources leaking data. If anything they might leak what the FBI tells them with the intent to spook wrong-doers. The investigation will be completed, if at all, either with a recognition that the stories of "Russiagate" were either basically innocent or were damnable, with some truth being revealed in formal arrests and the big truth being released in criminal trials or in sentencing of people who plea-bargain their way out of worse.

Let the investigation take the time needed. That's all that I can hope for, just as was done with investigations of drug trafficking or with people connected to September 11.

By the way -- what are the consequences should this story be true? What if Russian intelligence figures interfered in our political process? That's how Stalin consolidated Commie rule in such countries as Romania, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. Maybe our institutions aren't as weak as those of countries recently delivered from the rule of Nazi puppets if not the Nazis themselves. I have my suspicious about the whole d@mn election of 2016. If there were connections between Donald Trump and the Republican Party with Russian intelligence services that made the Party's win possible and they get away with it, then it is entirely possible that the Republican Party will have a lock on American politics nearly as secure as that of Commies in Romania, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia between the late 1940s and the late 1980s. 

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It amazes me that he got away with it. His statement that he grabbed women by their crotches should have discredited him. Surely you heard the speech by Mitt Romney in early 2016... that sort of language should have offended the sensibilities of any Christian who believes in 'family values'. We're talking about sexual assault, of not rape. A black punk who did that to pretty white girl without her consent would go to prison for such -- and, if I were on a jury on a case in which it could be proved, I would vote to convict and ask for a sentence. Race is not the issue; consent is.

But there are bigger matters to the Right, like having a government responsible exclusively to the economic elites.  Government of the money, by the money, and for the money? I could learn to drive on the left side of the road, if necessary.   

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Hope? Certainty. Economic inequity usually intensified before a financial panic because consumers are no longer able to spend the money. Think about it. If I go from $15K a year to $50K a year, then there are plenty of things on which I can spend money -- from a new car to better housing to fine dining to nice clothes.   

[pbrower2a]

Thank you for the name change.

Ditto.

[pbrower2a]

Well, I don't have a category on my map for anything less than 35%.  But that puts President Trump disapproval in Michigan in the same category as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

Gallup polls have been hovering around 40% approval. The 61% negative job approval rating  suggests that he would lose Michigan worse than McGovern did and almost as badly as Goldwater did. Add 6% to the approval rating that I think he has, and he would end up losing 61-38.

[pbrower2a]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

For Michiganders, "Make America Great Again" might mean 'bring back the economic prowess of the auto industry and have most of it in Michigan'.

The Oldsmobile, Plymouth, and Pontiac marques are not coming back to life -- let alone Packard.

[pbrower2a]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

At this point, I couldn't even imagine Trump winning Michigan against Clinton, honestly. That state is too far gone; he'd need to face an even worse Democrat or perform some economic miracle over the next 3 years.

So there might be a difference between the vague promises that he made of prosperity (Let's build badly-made gas-guzzling vehicles in Michigan again for people who really want them!) and the reality (people are buying smaller, less-costly cars, and the automobile assembly is no longer so heavily concentrated in Michigan), and the reality (Michigan will still be screwed by the Right).

Michigan pays for bad decisions made in good times, like failing to invest in education (to prepare  kids to do something other than work in an auto plant) and over-investing in urban expressways that took middle-income people out of Detroit and its tax base.



 

[pbrower2a]

Michigan will be for Trump in 2020 what Indiana was for Obama in 2012 -- a state that people will be amazed that he won when he won it and will be amazed by how badly he loses it. But there will be a big difference between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2020: Obama will have done what he promised and will have been stropped from doing much more, but Trump will have betrayed his promises to many of his voters. Obama lost only two states that he won in 2008 and still won decisively. Trump has the shakiest win of the Presidency of anyone and will be able to win re-election only if the election is rigged.

Trump did little better than Dukakis in 1988 or McCain in 2008... and he has little room for error.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

It looks like a misprint. Probably 32% approval, which is still execrable. I'll accept 32%. 61% disapproval?  That suggests a collapse of Trump support.

quote author=heatcharger link=topic=264554.msg5675692#msg5675692 date=1496237714]
Civitas (R) poll of North Carolina registered voters (change from mid-April):

Trump Approval:

Approve 42% (-6)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Cooper Approval:

Approve 61% (+2)
Disapprove 24%

It looks as if Democrats are gaining and Trump is doing badly in states that he just barely won in 2016.



Tennessee, Vanderbilt University

The poll of 1,005 registered voters also shows that support for Trump remains strong among Republicans at 86 percent and self-identified Tea Party members at 90 percent.

But Trump's positive standing among Democrats is just 10 percent and 49 percent among self-identified independents.

Trump handily won the state in November with 61.1 percent of the vote over Democrat Hillary Clinton's 34.9 percent.

The Vanderbilt Poll was conducted May 4-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

In November polling, 54 percent of Tennesseans thought Trump would change things for the better in Washington. Now, just 41 percent think that.

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2017/may/30/poll-shows-majority-tennesseans/430855/



Does anyone remember when Tennessee was the most politically-progressive state in the South? I do. That's when it had Senators Gore and Sasser.  That seems like an eternity ago.

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I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

39% Approve (-1)
55% Disapprove (+1)

You forgot to say that that was from the Gallup poll. That's not the only national poll.

http://www.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Contrasting the last four Presidents:

Obama was ahead of Trump by nearly 20% at this stage in 2009, which is before the TEA Party movement started to cut into his support and led to the semi-fascist government that we now have.  His polling would reach some lows at 40%, but he never went this low.

Dubya, surprisingly, was doing almost as well as Obama at the same time in 2001. There would be the 9/11 attack after which America would rally around him because he went by the book for a while...

Bill Clinton actually took an early tumble, and ended up below Trump was for a couple of days -- but he turned that around. I'm guessing that was about the Whitewater scandal that went nowhere.

If there is statistical hope for Trump it is that he will recover from this point and go up. But Clinton always was a realist, something that Trump has yet to show.