Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Inmate Trump]

33%???

Wow.

It's hard to imagine how a president could get reelected with that kind of rating. Was Dewey just a really terrible candidate?

[Inmate Trump]

What has he done for those low-income, low-information voters that he gulled in November?

True, but those same voters will happily back him in 2020.

[Inmate Trump]

Fox News (May 21st - May 23rd)

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Strongly approve: 28%
Somewhat approve: 12%
Somewhat disapprove: 8%
Strongly disapprove: 46%
(Don’t know): 7%

I wonder how Fox spun this.

Is it a fake poll?

[Inmate Trump]

The more media spin Russia-gate with absolutely no evidence, the more teflon Don becomes. Nice!

What kind of evidence would you like?  How many things need to happen before you start seeing them as just endless coincidences?

Just curious.

The FBI is investigating it, which wouldn't happen if there was nothing there.  Do you think these guys just pulled this stuff out of their hats?  The NSA chief just said the connection exists and that he's seen it.  You likely won't ever see the evidence in person yourself, just as you wouldn't for any criminal investigation; you would read about it, or see it on the news, but your eyes will never actually gaze upon it, as with any other crime.  So short of you seeing evidence in person, what would you actually accept as being proof?

[Inmate Trump]

But if he starts jailing reporters and detracting citizens, then his approval ratings will start to skyrocket.

[Inmate Trump]

I wouldn't say that the country is polarized...it's more that about half of the voting population are stupid.

It really is as simple as that.

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

So then Republicans must not like him much for his economic views....must be all the racist stuff that they love him for so much.

[Inmate Trump]

Any predictions at how low Trump's approval will fall post-Comey testimony?

[Inmate Trump]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

Translated to the electoral map in 2020.....

Democrat: 331
Trump: 32
Unknown: 175

(Yea, I know the Democratic candidate won't win all of those states where Trump's disapproval is higher than his approval.)

[Inmate Trump]

barry also rubbed it in our faces

Oh?

When?

[Inmate Trump]

If Trump's current disapproval ratings in each of the states listed are any indication of his 2020 performance, he'll be absolutely destroyed in the Northeast. The West isn't looking too good for him either. I'm curious how he'll perform in Utah; no doubt he'll win it, but by how much? And the fact that Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin have an effectively equal disapproval of Trump is very interesting.

You also have to consider Russia's role in 2020.

They helped him win (barely) in 2016, and they will be back...especially since we aren't doing anything to stop them.

[Inmate Trump]

Faux News poll:



They conveniently leave out their June poll where he had a 44/50 split in this graphic.

Approvals on:

The economy: 45/46
Immigration: 42/53
North Korea: 41/45
Syria: 40/45
Iran: 37/44
Russia: 33/56
Health care: 32/59

First time he's been in the negatives on the economy.

I bet they spun it to sound favorably to him somehow.

[Inmate Trump]

People "disapprove" of Trump yet will support him politically when it actually counts.

I doubt Michigan and Pennsylvania will do so again.

Numbers for him there are appalling and more than enough to turn them back to blue.

Of course, nothing really matters if Trump colludes with Putin again.

[Inmate Trump]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

Not true anymore.  Hillary was competitive there.  The state was very close.

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

In other words, the morons who don't care about the nation at all, but only about furthering their political party. If Trump was a Democrat pushing the same agenda, they would all bail just because of the D next to his name.

And yes, I'm referring to several posters here.

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

In other words, the morons who don't care about the nation at all, but only about furthering their political party. If Trump was a Democrat pushing the same agenda, they would all bail just because of the D next to his name.

And yes, I'm referring to several posters here.

I am a partisan Democrat, but had Donald Trump been the Democratic nominee and adopted boilerplate liberalism as a cover for his ideology, then I would  have voted for any Republican except Ted Cruz (creepy and dishonest) over him. Donald Trump has said things that make me sick. If only Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney last year.

Then again, liberals can easily reject those who stiff contractors, encourage violence, or brag about grabbing women by their crotches. We liberals generally do not tolerate rogues supposedly on our side.

To liberals Donald Trump is an ethical monster. To many conservatives, President Trump is a political failure. 

I just wish that Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney. Everything that Romney said about Trump has proved true.

They'll never see that though.

I'm just glad I jumped ship long before 2016.  What a train wreck the GOP has become in just the last 4-5 years.

[Inmate Trump]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

Nah.

No one can look away from a car crash.  It's the same concept.

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

Lol. The crashing across the board is hilarious.

Is Trump going to have a heart attack when he keeps seeing these brutal numbers?

No, because they're fake polls.

Reality is not the reality in which this nation lives anymore.

[Inmate Trump]

His threat was to hit NK with an attack like nothing the world has seen before.

So if we take him at his word, that means we'll be nuking the crap out of NK.

If he uses nukes anywhere on this planet, his approvals will tank.

I seriously doubt we'll be nuking anyone.  Though considering his previous boner-talk about nuclear weapons, who knows anymore.

[Inmate Trump]

If his approval stays still, it doesn't mean his supporters are racist. It means they're unfazed by the media coverage of him. Democrats see Trump defending white nationalists, white nationalists see Trump defending the counter protesters, but the right sees a man who condemned both sides.

C'mon.  Unless you're already a white nationalist, there is no way to not be fazed by all of this, and Trump's words regarding all of it.

[Inmate Trump]

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Crossing my fingers.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump is alone against the swamp but the ordinary and hardworking people will not be fooled by the left.

Who exactly is in the swamp?

I want names of people in congress who are part of this swamp that's preventing a president with majorities in both houses from accomplishing anything.

If you can't answer the question, then stop posting about the alleged swamp enemy of the president.

[Inmate Trump]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

[Inmate Trump]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

Ah, I'm probably thinking of a different pollster then.

[Inmate Trump]

Politico/Morning Consult:

39% Approval (20% Strongly)
56% Disapprove (43% Strongly)

Source

These are Trump's worst numbers for this poll. Only 73% of Republicans approve of Trump.

If this continues, it spells midterm disaster for the GOP.

I'm not so sure.

Russia will help their beloved one again.