Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Adam Griffin]

I couldn't find the figures for the city of Los Angeles, but considering it's substantially smaller and no more Democrat friendly then New York, it's inconceivable that trumps still doesn't lose the National popular vote by at least close to a million votes.

Some quick napkin calculations suggest that Clinton's PV margin in Los Angeles proper is somewhere between 700-800k votes.

[Adam Griffin]

I couldn't find the figures for the city of Los Angeles, but considering it's substantially smaller and no more Democrat friendly then New York, it's inconceivable that trumps still doesn't lose the National popular vote by at least close to a million votes.

Some quick napkin calculations suggest that Clinton's PV margin in Los Angeles proper is somewhere between 700-800k votes.

You have a pretty good napkin!!!!

City of LA:

Clinton: 1,017,038 ---    Trump: 212,080        Margin 804, 958

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

Well damn - if only I hadn't revised my numbers last-minute! I originally had it between 750-850k but second-guessed myself and thought there might be a greater non-citizen factor in the city proper compared to the county as a whole.

[Adam Griffin]

Meh, Arizona isn't a swing state - though it has the ability to be one in the future. Just like PA wasn't a swing state until following the 2016 election. A state that is consistently close but nevertheless consistently votes for one party over the other is a competitive state, but by definition, not a swing state.

[Adam Griffin]

Approval on...

Group	Day 1	Today	Change
HS Grads	48%	37%	-11
College Grads	42%	33%	-9
Republicans	89%	79%	-10
Moderates	41%	30%	-11
<$25k	36%	28%	-8
>$100k	49%	38%	-11
South	48%	42%	-6
Midwest	50%	37%	-13

[Adam Griffin]

Some other interesting cross-tabs from Gallup:

Approval on...

Group	Day 1	Today	Change
Weekly Churchgoers	54%	43%	-9
Liberal Republicans	75%	62%	-13
Conservative Republicans	92%	83%	-9
65+	53%	43%	-10
West	38%	28%	-10
East	41%	33%	-8
Married	52%	42%	-10
Pure Indies	34%	25%	-9
Whites	56%	46%	-10

What's really amazing here is the absurd uniformity across all groups: almost every group shows his approval has dropped from 8-11 points, whether it's groups that strongly supported him, strongly opposed him or were lukewarm either way.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a summary of how much Trump approval has dropped in the Gallup poll since Day 1 among various sub-groups; it's quite amazing how relatively uniform the drop has been (7-11 points for most categories) among groups that overwhelmingly supported him, opposed him and were lukewarm about him alike:

(Open in new tab for full-sized image)

Where he's lost the most ground: Midwesterners, independents, $60-100k, 30-49 year-olds, HS grads (~12 points)
Where he's lost the least ground: Liberals, Democrats, Southerners, 18-29 year-olds, conservatives (~ 6 points)

[Adam Griffin]

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Millennials FTW

But people keep saying that young millennials are right-wing!

Are there any old millenials?

To be fair, the most Democratic Millennial cluster has now mostly crossed over into the 30-49 category; according to that old NYT (I believe) graphic I recall, it's those between the ages of 29-32 (yay me!) or so that were most pushed into the Democratic Party by Bush.

[Adam Griffin]

I wouldn't necessarily think that the "better economics -> better racial relations" argument would apply at all to year-to-year changes - or even to those who are already fully grown and developed. I think if there is an argument to be made there, it relates more to a sustained economic effort that eliminates negative racial, ethnic or other types of sentiment from forming and hardening in those who come of age after the fact. In effect, it would take multiple generations.

For instance (in the context of this argument), the Civil Rights Era wouldn't have blossomed in the way it did because a bunch of 40, 50 and 60-somethings at the time benefited from the New Deal over 20-30 years and likewise suddenly changed their minds: it would have happened because those being raised and coming of age in the 1940s and 1950s had far more opportunity and were less likely to blame others for their malaise.

[Adam Griffin]

Trump falls to new low of 25 percent approval rate in California poll

I don't see how he possibly wins the PV in 2020 with approvals like that.

I wish California secession would gain more traction. When will Californians realize the rest of the country hates them and they have no real representation.

Dafuq?

I think Beet is day drinking

Trump is popular and people are lying to pollsters. California doesn't count. Right wing Twitter is actually correct about this.

Yes, yes, because surging from 35% to 38% approval is just spectacular.

That includes California.

OK...? So if he's at 38% nationally and 25% in CA, that means he's at 39.5% outside of CA. Which states get discounted next?

[Adam Griffin]

Oh I understand his amount of room in CA. I was just asking why is his approval from the Republicans so low.

Pretty much anywhere where there is a clear and overwhelming majority party, the minority party is going to skew in its direction from a relative standpoint. Democrats in Oklahoma are going to be more conservative as a whole than Democrats nationally; Republicans in California will be more liberal. I've always assumed that this is the collective manifestation of the most basic of political survival mechanisms.

[Adam Griffin]

[snip]

Approve of Trump: 43.4%
Oppose Impeachment: 43.5%

Disapprove of Trump: 55.1%
Support Impeachment: 53.0%

Basically, the only people who oppose impeachment are the ones who approve of him. Only a tiny handful of those who disapprove of him are against removing him from office. Surely this is unprecedented?

[Adam Griffin]

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

As has already been pointed out, who care?

It's not just about persuasion. Relatively speaking, midterms are about two things: turnout and anti-incumbent sentiment. When you have indicators like this...

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...that exposes a huge vulnerability for the GOP in an election where Democrats are going to be motivated to vote against Trump, while Trump voters unhappy with Congress do not see him as being on the ballot and won't be nearly as motivated if they're upset with their members of Congress. If that effect is even halfway strong and you have a respectable share of swing voters decide to vote against the GOP, it's over.

[Adam Griffin]

ARG has historically been a garbage poster, but a "legitimate" polling outfit nonetheless.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

This is a forum where we speak ENGLISH, not Spanish.

[Adam Griffin]

Obama's 08 margins are probably still the max a Democrat can hope for - unless there is a bunch of funny business with nominal turnout. The GOP basically has a base of 62 million voters (give or take a couple million) that sticks with them regardless of what happens. All of the wild swings nationally over the past 15 years basically have hinged on how many people turn out and vote for Democrats rather than Republicans. Bush got 62m in 2004, McCain got 60, Romney got 61 and Trump got 63.

If you had another 10 million people turn out to vote and they went overwhelmingly Democratic, then that Democrat might be able to hit 55%. There are also third parties to contend with, depending on the climate of the election; a 55-45 two-way vote might be more possible.

[Adam Griffin]

Obama's 08 margins are probably still the max a Democrat can hope for - unless there is a bunch of funny business with nominal turnout. The GOP basically has a base of 62 million voters (give or take a couple million) that sticks with them regardless of what happens. All of the wild swings nationally over the past 15 years basically have hinged on how many people turn out and vote for Democrats rather than Republicans. Bush got 62m in 2004, McCain got 60, Romney got 61 and Trump got 63.

If you had another 10 million people turn out to vote and they went overwhelmingly Democratic, then that Democrat might be able to hit 55%. There are also third parties to contend with, depending on the climate of the election; a 55-45 two-way vote might be more possible.

those 62 million are old tho

They were old in 2004 as well. The GOP is obviously replacing every voter they're losing with a new one.

[Adam Griffin]

Daniel represents the average Republican voter today. He's actually bringing a little taste of reality to this forum.

Hell, he's not even a Republican, because he's not an American. No Real American should pay any attention to what a right-wing foreigner (and probably East Euro paid troll) thinks.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, that poll of WV is garbage: please don't take it seriously. The only metric anybody should have any credence in is the fact that Manchin has likely almost wrapped up his re-election.

Give all the undecideds/others to the GOP in each contest and it might be somewhat accurate; Trump and Capito are probably around 60% in WV, and Justice is probably around 55%.

[Adam Griffin]

Im not sure how many times I need to post this but you should never read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll. They are prone to wild jumps for no reason.

Well at least you gave me a good laugh.

Gosh darn it, how am I supposed to ignore Daniel if you quote him.

If nothing else, his English is improving.

The day-shift "Daniel" studied English a bit more in school than night-shift "Daniel".

[Adam Griffin]

Bad (or sick) country!