Under-45 voters made their Electoral College bluer than in 2012

[Adam Griffin]

Digging through exit polls, I extracted who won each state and by how much (exact margins here; extrapolated WA/OR's #s partially for 12/16 due to no crosstabs on 18-29s).

From there, I filled in the blanks on the rest of the states to see what the Electoral College looked like across both elections. If the election were held solely among under-45 voters (44% of electorate in 2016, 46% in 2012), then Hillary Clinton would have won by more than Barack Obama.

Dems lose ME, OH & IA; GOP picks up MO (was tied in 2012); GOP loses TX & AZ.

[Adam Griffin]

In contrast, here are 2012/2016 for voters 45+:

[SingingAnalyst]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

[Strudelcutie4427]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

[libertpaulian]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

I agree with that.  It seems like each generation's politics is different than the previous one.

[Nyvin]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

I doubt it,  social media seems to drive people away from capitalism.   There's no indication that the typical social liberalisms that are popular with millennials are any less popular with high schoolers today.

[TheSaint250]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Studies have shown that Gen Z is socially moderate/liberal and fiscally conservative.

[Adam Griffin]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

[Gass3268]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Studies have shown that Gen Z is socially moderate/liberal and fiscally conservative.

Expect Trump to reverse this trends. Also Generation Z will be even more diverse than millennials, no way they will be more conservative. White Zers, maybe.

[RINO Tom]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

[Adam Griffin]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

Yes, the younger cohorts among Millennials do appear to be a bit more conservative than their older peers; somewhere in the vicinity of 50/50. That's the byproduct of coming of age under a two-term Democratic President who was polarizing in the national dialogue (even though I'd wager a clear majority of them actually like Obama). Trump may dull the effect a bit and cut off potential gains among GZ.

Basically wherever you are between 16-20 has the biggest impact. Try being 15 when the Iraq War kicked off, 16 when Bush got re-elected, 17-18 during "the surge" and 20 during the economic collapse/rise of Obama like me.

Maybe he's being more broad, but what he described (9/11, "grew up on patriotism/'support the troops'", Call of Duty, etc) is the climate that people my age came of age in (2001-2008) and we're the most Democratic of all Millennials - other than CoD games still being around, I don't think it's a climate that applies to teenagers today.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

Yes, the younger cohorts among Millennials do appear to be a bit more conservative than their older peers; somewhere in the vicinity of 50/50. That's the byproduct of coming of age under a two-term Democratic President who was polarizing in the national dialogue (even though I'd wager a clear majority of them actually like Obama). Trump may dull the effect a bit and cut off potential gains among GZ.

Basically wherever you are between 16-20 has the biggest impact. Try being 15 when the Iraq War kicked off, 16 when Bush got re-elected, 17-18 during "the surge" and 20 during the economic collapse/rise of Obama like me.

Maybe he's being more broad, but what he described (9/11, "grew up on patriotism/'support the troops'", Call of Duty, etc) is the climate that people my age came of age in (2001-2008) and we're the most Democratic of all Millennials - other than CoD games still being around, I don't think it's a climate that applies to teenagers today.

This wasn't the case with my peers. I'm 21 and most of my friends are 20 so we're definitely the younger half. We vaguely remember Bush leaving office and everything was bad and that Obama was an improvement over "everything being bad" Bush.

But I guess I can see us being slightly less liberal than those who saw full force all of Bush's screw ups. Likewise I suspect those born 1999-2002 will also be quite liberal given what they're gonna witness growing up under the Trump and Pence administrations.

[Figueira]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

No. Clinton did as well among 18-24 as she did among 25-29.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

No. Clinton did as well among 18-24 as she did among 25-29.

Clinton may have, but other recent elections did paint a very different story, including 2014 and very limited data about the very youngest voters in 2012.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

No. Clinton did as well among 18-24 as she did among 25-29.

Clinton may have, but other recent elections did paint a very different story, including 2014 and very limited data about the very youngest voters in 2012.

My personal guess on this is that Trumpism is unpopular with millennials and even millennial republicans. If Hillary Clinton of all people could get young people strongly on her side (given that they were not excited for her under any circumstance) then clearly it's a problem with Trump himself and perhaps his ideological wing of the Party.

23% of GOP voters aged 18-29 have already defected to the Democrats starting in December of 2015.

[darklordoftech]

Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops

I'm 22 and growiing up with that rhetoric alienated me from the GOP. When a politician says, "support the troops", "be a patriot", "subject yourself to surveillance", "we must invade Iraq", etc., it sounds an awful lot like fascism to me.

[Virginiá]

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

That depends. In 2012, data showed 18-20 year olds skewing heavily towards Romney, but 4 years later, when they made up a larger portion of the 18-24 age group, they skewed more Democratic than any other group, including their slightly older peers. There are other polls that do show them as identifying as somewhat less Democratic, but the actual election data doesn't suggest it.

I don't think a single election tells the whole story for younger voters. Those ages are the most volatile time for a young voter, and it wouldn't be that serious if they swung around a bit, particularly under a president presiding over an economic recovery.

So far I think there is little reliable evidence to suggest that at least the first half of gen z will be substantially less Democratic than Millennials, and given how racially diverse they are (and how reliable those voters have been), it seems unlikely until proven.

[DPKdebator]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

Yes, the younger cohorts among Millennials do appear to be a bit more conservative than their older peers; somewhere in the vicinity of 50/50. That's the byproduct of coming of age under a two-term Democratic President who was polarizing in the national dialogue (even though I'd wager a clear majority of them actually like Obama). Trump may dull the effect a bit and cut off potential gains among GZ.

Basically wherever you are between 16-20 has the biggest impact. Try being 15 when the Iraq War kicked off, 16 when Bush got re-elected, 17-18 during "the surge" and 20 during the economic collapse/rise of Obama like me.

Maybe he's being more broad, but what he described (9/11, "grew up on patriotism/'support the troops'", Call of Duty, etc) is the climate that people my age came of age in (2001-2008) and we're the most Democratic of all Millennials - other than CoD games still being around, I don't think it's a climate that applies to teenagers today.

This wasn't the case with my peers. I'm 21 and most of my friends are 20 so we're definitely the younger half. We vaguely remember Bush leaving office and everything was bad and that Obama was an improvement over "everything being bad" Bush.

But I guess I can see us being slightly less liberal than those who saw full force all of Bush's screw ups. Likewise I suspect those born 1999-2002 will also be quite liberal given what they're gonna witness growing up under the Trump and Pence administrations.

Gen Zers are generally too young to remember anything about Bush, especially in the more restrictive definitions (i.e. the ones that start at 2000 or 2001).

[darklordoftech]

What's up with Maine in 2016?

[RINO Tom]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

Practically no portion of GZ is even eligible to vote yet (none are by some measurements). The generation you're describing as "9/11" are Millennials, and with particular note, the events you described occurred concurrently along the politically-formative years of the segment of Millennials who are the most Democratic as a whole (those between 25-30 years old).

The reasons you list for why they'd be Republicans are many of the reasons why they're Democrats in the first place.

Aren't there some polls that suggest younger Millenials are a bit more Republican than older ones?  Or maybe it was just younger White Millenials?  Ancedotally, that is what I have noticed - the people I know who are 26, 27 and 28 tend to be more Democratic than those who are 23, 24 and 25.

No. Clinton did as well among 18-24 as she did among 25-29.

Clinton may have, but other recent elections did paint a very different story, including 2014 and very limited data about the very youngest voters in 2012.

My personal guess on this is that Trumpism is unpopular with millennials and even millennial republicans. If Hillary Clinton of all people could get young people strongly on her side (given that they were not excited for her under any circumstance) then clearly it's a problem with Trump himself and perhaps his ideological wing of the Party.

23% of GOP voters aged 18-29 have already defected to the Democrats starting in December of 2015.

Hopefully not gone forever.

[JoshPA]

This is not surprising. The extreme distaste those born after about 1971 have for Trump was evident in the GOP primaries as well.

As many over 45 will no longer be voting in 2020, I believe this gives Trump reason to worry, even if, as some reports suggest, the next wave of new voters is a bit more "conservative" than the last.

Gen Z is probably gonna be the anti-thesis to millennial. Generation 9/11 grew up on patriotism, support the troops, and war video games like CoD. If anything I expect more of a social libertarian streak but they will not be liberal or more so than millennials on economics and domestic issues. The universe must remain in balance so generation 9/11 must cancel out the SJWs

I doubt it,  social media seems to drive people away from capitalism.   There's no indication that the typical social liberalisms that are popular with millennials are any less popular with high schoolers today.

"social media seems to drive people away from capitalism" That is why I think what you said is pure bullsh**t.