State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/978802424126296064

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/978802424126296064

I don't think that'll end up being relevant.

[Ebsy]

This is an insanely embarrassing result for the GOP.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/978802424126296064

That means they're probably redder than this district as a whole b/c Jones won by about 10 here. The results we have now are probably going to be within 2% of the final result.

[Ebsy]

The final margin is likely going to be about the size of the Republican's margin in the Optimist Park Precinct, which was one of the key benchmark precincts in the Jones-Moore race. The Republican's 60-40 victory in Optimist Park is a little strange to say the least.

[Lachi]

Turnout figures absolutely freaking abysmal, as with all these kinds of elections.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow what a swing to the dems

[Strudelcutie4427]

Turnout figures absolutely freaking abysmal, as with all these kinds of elections.

10.3%. Unless the polling place is way out of the way it only takes 5 seconds to fill in a single bubble

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Precincts Reporting: 95 %
DEM DEM   TERRY JONES47.24 %1,969
REP REP   REX REYNOLDS52.66 %2,195
NON NON   WRITE-IN0.10 %4
4,168

[GlobeSoc]

I think we can project this...

[Ebsy]

The Republican candidate for this seat, Rex Reynolds, is a long time public official in Huntsville, having been both police chief and public administrator, and is incredibly active in multiple organizations in his community. The small business owner raised almost $89,000 in this race compared to Jones' $2000, and spent over $40,000 of it. He raised a ton of many and spent it on a capable campaign laser focused on an important local issue, protecting municipal employee pensions. He honestly has a more impressive resume than most candidates for State House in states with part time legislatures like Alabama, and likely had high name recognition among voters in this special election.

And yet, he barely won a seat that Trump won by over 20 points.

[Strudelcutie4427]

12.5% turn out. That’s just terrible

[Dr. Arch]

Wow what a swing to the dems

[Sestak]

Wow what a swing to the dems

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Precincts Reporting: 100 %
DEM DEM   TERRY JONES47.09 %2,167
REP REP   REX REYNOLDS52.82 %2,431
NON NON   WRITE-IN0.09 %4
4,602

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the Schedule for April:

April 3

Massachusetts
See also: Massachusetts state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts House of Representatives Second Bristol District   
Rhode Island
See also: Rhode Island state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Rhode Island State Senate District 8   
CA Assembly 39 JUNGLE
CA Assembly 45 JUNGLE
CA Assembly 54 JUNGLE
WI Supreme Court

April 10

Florida
See also: Florida state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Florida State Senate District 31   
Iowa
See also: Iowa state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Iowa State Senate District 25   

April 24


New York
See also: New York state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 32   
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 37   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 5   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 10   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 17   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 39   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 74   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 80   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 102   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 107   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 142   

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the Schedule for April:

New York
See also: New York state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 32   
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 37   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 5   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 10   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 17   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 39   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 74   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 80   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 102   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 107   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 142   

Uhhh NY, is something wrong....

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Wow what a swing to the dems

Swing to Democrats of 28.07% from 2014, however the race was slightly closer with a Democratic incumbent in 2010.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's the Schedule for April:

New York
See also: New York state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 32   
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 37   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 5   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 10   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 17   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 39   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 74   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 80   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 102   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 107   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 142   

Uhhh NY, is something wrong....

Special elections because a lot of RINOs in the legislature predictably went to jail for griftin’

Not just that. There's a wide diversity of seats on the list, including three R-held seats on Long Island, four D-held seats in NYC (two in the Bronx, one in Queens and one in Manhattan), a D-held seat in Westchester, two R-held seats in the Hudson Valley and a D-held seat in the Buffalo area. There are some pick-up opportunities for the Democrats on that list in AD-5, AD-17 and AD-107. AD-10 and AD-102 are probably safe for the Republicans but I guess can't be completely counted out. In a different environment, SD-37 could be vulnerable to the Republicans, but not in 2018. The other seats are all Democratic-held seats that will be safe Democratic holds.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow what a swing to the dems

Swing to Democrats of 28.07% from 2014, however the race was slightly closer with a Democratic incumbent in 2010.

The lines were probably different in 2010, at that point it was still operating under Democratic-Drawn lines from the 2000 census.

[KingSweden]

Fwiw, per DKE the Dem spent 2k here and was outspent 20-1

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - an excellent result for Democratic candidate. If only a Republican would be a Roy Moore type - he could win....

[Virginiá]

Since this thread is way past the usual limit, it's time to transition to version 2 of the special elections megathread.

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0