State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

[GlobeSoc]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

What type of district is this?

[Holmes]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

#DemsInDisarray

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

What type of district is this?

State Senate District. But a swing towards Republicans anywhere is very bad news for dems.

[MaxQue]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

It's Newport. A place I visited and didn't expect to be D at all. It has old mansions from the Gilded Age (the Astor manor, the Rockefeller manor...), which are now touristic attractions. The Tennis Hall of Fame is there, as his an huge port downtown with souvenir "shoppes" and restaurant for tourists and a port full of yatchs. The Naval War College is there too, with a small Navy base. A few golf courses, too.

I would say there is tactical unwind, too, this was the seat of the RI Senate President.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

[Kamala]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

So what's the situation with the mail-ins? They could be part of the reason of the (apparent) swing

[MaxQue]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

I would had it's the kind of place where a part of the resident population rents to tourists and so is not there in summer and workers are very busy with tourists (they are much less busy in November). I would have an hard time trying to compare it to non-summer elections in Newport.

Sure, not a good omen for Dems, but I would wait the total result including mail votes before announcing anything.

[Ebsy]

Not every candidate is going to overpeform Clinton's margin, especially not in districts that are safe. That why it is useful to look at more than one data point.

[smoltchanov]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

It was about 55-45 Democratic in 2014, with very influential Democratic state senator running for reelection, and the same Republican candidate. So, i don't see any reasons for Democrats to panic...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New totals:

Euer 1982 (59%)
Smith 1295 (38%)
Ripoli 73 (2%)
Larsen 17 (1%)
Write-In 7 (<1%)

https://patch.com/rhode-island/newport/preliminary-results-district-13-dawn-euer-apparent-winner-687-votes

Swing is a tad better now at D + 35 --> D + 21.

[wjx987]

It's also Rhode Island, where Democratic Governor Raimondo is unpopular. It makes sense there would be a Republican swing if this is the case; similar things have happened in Connecticut. Literally no reason for the Dems to panic.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

A bad sign in isolation but it counters the general special election trend. I will be concerned if this trend continues in 2017/18 but there's no evidence of that yet. This is a local race and a single data point like this could be attributed to a lot of different causes.

[Ebsy]

Next up is New Hampshire HD Grafton 9 on September 5. It was 50-48 Obama in 2012 and 55-40 Trump in 2016. However, in 2016 the Democratic nominee in the upcoming special election, Joshua Adjutant, almost beat incumbent Robert Hall. This seat is vacant following Republican Jeff Shackett's resignation.

Candidates:

Joshua Adjutant (DEM)
Vincent Migliore (GOP)
John J. Babiarz (LIB)

Definitely a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

[heatcharger]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

Very nice, and thank you for the link! With these kind of margins (and hopefully just a little higher turnout) Gillespie and Vogel can be repelled!

[Kevinstat]

Is there a thread dealing with the Nevada recall attempts by Republicans?

Or has it been discussed on this thread?  Recalls are kind of like special elections, just where the incumbent has neither died, been expelled or willfully vacated the seat.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/902592570571751425

Daily Kos Elections‏  @DKElections
GOP state Sen. Hunter Hill resigns to focus on #GAgov bid. Dems could win his 56-40 Clinton seat in special election

[Gass3268]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

[windjammer]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

I don't think he outperformed Hillary though

[Gass3268]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

I don't think he outperformed Hillary though

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

[Dr. Arch]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

Karen Keys-Gamarra (D) is winning big league.

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

I don't think he outperformed Hillary though

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

Virginia has had enough of the modern day Republican Party.

[kph14]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

I don't think he outperformed Hillary though

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

Which was the highest % a Democratic presidential nominee got in Fairfax County since 1936 by the way.

[Virginiá]

Which was the highest % a Democratic presidential nominee got in Fairfax County since 1936 by the way.

And the widest margin since 1916. I hadn't even noticed how significant Clinton's margin was in Fairfax until you brought this up. Republicans are seriously cratering in Virginia.

[heatcharger]

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

Keys-Gamarra had strong support from local Dems (Wexton, Boysko, Murphy, etc.), and she actually ran ahead of Hillary in some incredibly affluent, traditionally Republican areas near Oakton, which was her home turf. I'm hesitant to say this is a good data point to predict the gubernatorial race though, and that's simply because this race was a nonpartisan election.

It's very clear that Democratic anger/enthusiasm is extremely high in Fairfax, however.